When coaches turn in their choices for the All-Star reserves for each conference, to be announced Thursday before TNT's doubleheader, they'll have some tough calls to make.
As I've noted, All-Star rosters have remained at 12 players while the league has expanded from 12 teams to 30 and active rosters have swelled to 13. Add starting spots for fan favorites such as Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade, voted in on the strength of their legacies rather than their current performance, and rosters get tighter still.
Following the same rules coaches will use, here are my choices for both conferences.
East backcourt
Jimmy Butler
Position: SG
Chicago Bulls
Experience: 4 years
Butler is the easiest call in the East. Having maintained and even exceeded last year's improvement as a scorer while returning to form at the defensive end, Butler has established himself as the conference's best shooting guard. That's why he earned a spot on my East All-Star starters.
John Wall
Position: PG
Washington Wizards
Experience: 5 years
The Wizards have been battered by injuries, which has forced Wall to take on more of a scoring load than he'd probably prefer. As a result of that and his own nagging maladies, Wall's true shooting percentage (.514) is his lowest since 2011-12, his second season in the league. Still, Wall's passing has helped keep Washington afloat with limited contributions from Bradley Beal and Nenê, which makes him a clear reserve choice.
East frontcourt
Paul Millsap
Position: PF
Atlanta Hawks
Experience: 9 years
A year after the Hawks sent four starters to the All-Star Game, Millsap might be a bit lonelier in Toronto. Center Al Horford is the only other Atlanta player with a realistic shot of being chosen. While the rest of the team has declined from the past season's heights, Millsap is playing his best basketball at age 30.
Chris Bosh
Position: PF
Miami Heat
Experience: 12 years
Like Millsap, Bosh was one of my starters, though the two players voted in the frontcourt (Carmelo Anthony and Paul George) are deserving All-Stars in their own rights. Bosh's ability to slide down to center and serve as a stretch 5 while adequately protecting the rim has unlocked Miami's most successful lineups. Per Nylon Calculus, Miami outscores opponents by 5.7 points per 48 minutes with Bosh in the middle.
Andre Drummond
Position: C
Detroit Pistons
Experience: 3 years
The departure of Greg Monroe has allowed Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy to build his offense around Drummond's prodigious skills. Drummond has become a dangerous pick-and-roll threat and the league's best rebounder while also improving his defensive instincts. The only downside of Drummond's first All-Star appearance is the possibility of Gregg Popovich hacking him during the game.
East wild cards
Kevin Love
Position: PF
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 7 years
The narrative that Love is struggling to fit in with the Cavaliers finds little statistical backing. In part because he was so much more involved early in the season, Love ranks 17th in the league (and eighth in the East) in wins generated, based on his rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). That's consistent with his other advanced stats and puts Love ahead of Horford (30th), Pau Gasol (20th) and any other contenders for a wild-card spot in the frontcourt.
Isaiah Thomas
Position: PG
Boston Celtics
Experience: 4 years
In practice, this spot will likely go to DeMar DeRozan of the Toronto Raptors, who has played the best basketball of his career for the conference's second-best team (and the All-Star host) in December and January. Over the course of the full season, however, DeRozan's advanced stats can't compare to the trio of point guards who vied for this spot on my roster: Thomas, Reggie Jackson of the Detroit Pistons and Kemba Walker of the Charlotte Hornets. Here's how their advanced stats compare:
Thomas has the best combination of usage rate and true shooting percentage (TSP) of the group and is competitive as a playmaker. As a result, he has accumulated the most wins above replacement player (WARP) of the group by my metric, and he ranks 16th in the league and eighth among East players. Teammate Jae Crowder also deserves some consideration, though I'm a bit skeptical Crowder can keep up his 36.7 percent 3-point shooting after he hit 28.2 percent with the Celtics last season.
West backcourt
Chris Paul
Position: PG
Los Angeles Clippers
Experience: 10 years
As I wrote in explaining how the Clippers have played better without injured forward Blake Griffin, Paul is finishing a higher percentage of his team's plays than ever in his career without a significant decline in his efficiency. Although other point guards have grabbed the spotlight, Paul remains almost as good as ever.
James Harden
Position: SG
Houston Rockets
Experience: 6 years
Few players have been more frustrating this season than Harden, whose defensive effort has regressed to its 2013-14 level. Rewarding Harden for this indifference feels wrong. Yet as the MVP runner-up last season, Harden had plenty of room to decline and remain an All-Star. When on his game, he's as tough to stop as any offensive force in the league, and Harden's terrific offensive RPM more than makes up for his dismal defensive rating.
West frontcourt
Draymond Green
Position: PF
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 3 years
There's no question that Green has been one of the three best frontcourt players in the West this season. Alas, someone had to get bumped from the starting lineup to make room for Kobe Bryant's All-Star swan song, and Green drew the short straw. He's a no-brainer reserve pick.
Anthony Davis
Position: PF
New Orleans Pelicans
Experience: 3 years
Like Harden, Davis has suffered more relative to his own high standard than the rest of the league. His defensive effort hasn't been as good as it was the past season, when he made strides at that end, and Davis struggled to create his own shot without Tyreke Evans in the lineup early in the year. Still, Davis is 17th in WARP and 24th in RPM wins.
DeMarcus Cousins
Position: C
Sacramento Kings
Experience: 5 years
After the disappointment of being left off the coaches' picks a year ago (he was later chosen as an injury replacement), Cousins has given them plenty of reason to choose him just in the past week. He became the first NBA player in more than a decade to rack up 45-plus points and 10-plus rebounds in consecutive games, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Yes, Cousins can still let his emotions get the best of him (as in a frustration foul late in regulation of Monday's double-OT loss to the Charlotte Hornets). Yes, he takes too many plays off defensively and can be exploited down the stretch. But the Kings would be closer to the bottom of the West than the playoff race without Cousins, as they have been outscored by 9.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, according to NBA.com/Stats.
West wild cards
Klay Thompson
Position: SG
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 4 years
In terms of individual statistics, a surprisingly strong case can be made for J.J. Redick to earn the sharpshooter spot on the West roster. Redick has been far more efficient this season, posting a .653 TSP to Thompson's .587. Yet Thompson's all-around game and gravity as a shooter give him the edge. RPM co-creator Jeremias Engelmann recently posted single-season regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), which looks strictly at how each player's team performs with him on and off the court, adjusted for teammates and opponents. Thompson came out third behind teammates Stephen Curry and Green.
DeAndre Jordan
Position: C
Los Angeles Clippers
Experience: 7 years
A lot of players can make a case for the final spot on the West roster. Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers leads all candidates with 6.1 WARP, though his RPM lags because the Blazers have played well without him on the court this season. Tim Duncan's plus-6.3 RPM is outstanding, albeit in just 25.9 MPG. Dirk Nowitzki remains an offensive force, and Zaza Pachulia actually has a case for the All-Star Game beyond the support of Wyclef Jean. Gordon Hayward of the Utah Jazz has carried the heaviest minute load. Marc Gasol has a long track record of All-Star play. A healthy Dwight Howard could play like an All-Star in the second half.
Still, Jordan is my choice. He is an impressive seventh in RPM wins, and though that can be explained somewhat by Jordan's defensive stats (blocks and rebounds) exceeding his impact, he is 20th in the single-season RAPM that doesn't take these into account. For the second season in a row, Jordan has helped the Clippers survive Griffin's absence by dominating as a pick-and-roll monster with Paul. He might not be Defensive Player of the Year, but Jordan should be an All-Star.