Most rookies don't help their teams win. And many players -- including the great Kevin Durant -- have also failed to make a positive impact in Year 2.
At the same time, we want to see lottery picks demonstrate that they are putting it together and fulfilling the hopes that teams and fans hold for them.
Today we'll look at seven highly-touted rookies and sophomores who've been particularly disappointing during the first half of the 2015-16 campaign. (In Part II, we'll examine MVP candidates and former MVPs who've failed to live up to expectations.)
Struggling rookies
Rocky start in Philly: Jahlil Okafor
The Philadelphia 76ers have been woeful throughout Sam Hinkie's tenure as general manager. And the play of Jahlil Okafor, the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft, is one reason we're now witnessing the third straight season of Hinkie Era woe.
While Okafor is averaging nearly 20 points and nine boards per 36 minutes of play, those numbers are the NBA equivalent of empty calories. Philly has been outscored by a staggering 19.2 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court.
If any team played an entire season that poorly, it would shatter the all-time record for futility.
And yet with Okafor on the bench, the Sixers have actually put up a respectable net efficiency of -2.5, a bit better than this year's Washington Wizards. So it's perhaps no surprise that Okafor currently ranks dead last in Real Plus-Minus (with a -6.90 RPM) among all active players.
NBA-ready or not: Emmanuel Mudiay
Mudiay, who skipped college to play professional ball last year in China, was scouted as a more NBA-ready prospect than the typical one-and-done freshman. But it has been a rough adjustment for the Denver rookie so far.
The Nuggets' young point guard has put up by far the lowest true shooting percentage (38.0) of any player in the league, and he has coughed up a devastating number of turnovers -- 4.9 per 36 minutes on the court.
Not only has he compiled the worst offensive RPM (-4.65) of any NBA point guard, but Mudiay's total RPM (-6.15) value exceeds that of only one other player this year: Jahlil Okafor.
Not so super: Mario Hezonja
When the Orlando Magic tabbed Hezonja with the fifth pick of the 2015 draft, they presumably had a player who could immediately strengthen their wing rotation. After all, the 6-foot-8 Croatian had just logged two seasons of solid Euroleague play, and he was a year older than one-and-done prospects like D'Angelo Russell.
But Hezonja hasn't looked much like "Super Mario" in the early going.
While Magic coach Scott Skiles has dutifully played him in 34 of 37 games thus far, Hezonja's on-court impact has been a big net negative. In fact, his offensive RPM (-1.56) and defensive RPM (-2.01) both suggest a level of play below that of the mythical "replacement player."
Offensively, Hezonja has been a turnover machine, giving up the ball on 21.1 percent of all the possessions he has used (one of the highest turnover rates in the league). And although his 3-point shooting stroke is just as sweet as advertised -- he has converted on 41.1 percent from 3-point range -- he has struggled to find other ways to contribute.
Touted as an elite dunker out of FC Barcelona, Super Mario has thrown it down only four times all season. He has also shown a lackluster ability to get to the line, and he's not doing much to set up his teammates, either.
In fairness, though, Hezonja has been averaging only 13 minutes per game for Orlando -- and has even been asked to play out of position on occasion as a point guard off the bench -- so it's perhaps no surprise that he's still finding his way.
Slumping sophomores
No defense: Andrew Wiggins
After winning Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins is already regarded as a star by fans and some NBA personnel, despite some early concerns in the analytics community. Count us among the few holdouts not yet ready to elevate Wiggins to the NBA pantheon.
For starters, many of his key stats have actually dropped from his rookie campaign.
Wiggins is shooting only 43.7 percent from the floor this season and has clicked on just 24.7 percent of shots from 3-point range (down from 31.0 percent a year ago).
Rebounds? Also down. Assists? Down. Blocks? Down. True shooting percentage? You get the idea.
In fact, the Wolves have actually played better this season -- with a better net efficiency -- without Wiggins on the court. And his RPM impact, currently -4.32, ranks a mere 84th among 88 NBA 2-guards.
What's worse, his defense was supposed to be a strong suit, but for the second straight year, it has been a weakness. In defensive RPM, he's actually next-to-last in the league among shooting guards, at -3.76.
Because he's just 20 years old, Wiggins still has plenty of time to figure it out. But if a player's greatness hinges on his ability to make his team more effective on the court, Wiggins has yet to arrive.
One-trick Laker: Julius Randle
Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.
Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.
The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.
Another big problem in Philly: Nerlens Noel
Rivaling Okafor in negative plus-minus impact is Noel, Jahlil's fellow Philadelphia big man. In his sophomore season (after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury), Noel has actually seen a falloff on multiple fronts.
While the Philly center demonstrated elite defensive proficiency last year -- and averaged over two blocks and two steals per 36 minutes of play -- he has been less effective this season, perhaps due to small injuries and the challenges of playing next to Okafor.
In a particularly telling development, Noel's block rate has fallen off about 40 percent, and his defensive RPM impact is down nearly two points per 100 possessions.
Of course, defense isn't Noel's biggest problem. His offensive RPM of -5.45 is the absolute worst among all NBA big men. In fact, the 76ers score only 88 points per 100 possessions when Noel is on the court, the lowest offensive rating on record for a player with at least 700 on-court minutes.
Yet another subpar Sixer: Nik Stauskas
It may be unseemly at this point to add another young Philadelphia player to our "All-Disappointment Team." But given the Sixers' abysmal 4-34 showing this season, it's perhaps no surprise that they dominate the category.
Stauskas, the 8th pick in the 2014 draft, was acquired from the Sacramento Kings last summer in a trade that most observers felt the 76ers won, in part because Philly also acquired future draft rights in multiple years.
But if the Sixers were counting on Stauskas, the former lottery pick hasn't exactly delivered in Philly. He has actually played worse in many ways than he did in his erratic rookie outing with the Kings last year -- and that's saying something.
Known for his potential as a shooter and passer, he's converting only 35.3 percent of FG attempts and racking up only 1.7 assists in 23 minutes per game.
The advanced stats are even more unflattering: 46.5 true shooting percentage (ranked 59th of 66 NBA shooting guards), 16.7 usage rate (far below league average), -3.15 offensive RPM and -2.52 defensive RPM.
Stauskas' -5.67 total RPM is easily the worst of any non-rookie this season. In fact, Philly would probably be on track for a few more wins this season if they had never added Stauskas to their roster.
Of course, for a team that has been more interested in trying out young talent than winning games, at least Stauskas' struggles have a silver lining -- increasing Philadelphia's odds in the upcoming Ben Simmons lottery (aka, the 2016 NBA draft).