The trade the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves made 17 months ago will go down as one of the most fascinating in NBA history. The deal, headlined by Kevin Love going to Cleveland and Andrew Wiggins to Minnesota, involved the eventual Rookie of the Year (Wiggins) and a three-time All-Star in his prime (Love).
A year and a half later, we can still reasonably pose the question: When Cleveland traded Wiggins, the No. 1 overall pick, for Love, did they win or lose the deal?
As the teams prepare to meet tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN 8 p.m. ET), there's no question the Timberwolves would make the trade again, with Wiggins and 2015 top pick Karl-Anthony Towns emerging as the cornerstones of a promising young team.
Despite the potential Wiggins has flashed at age 20, however, the Cavaliers also have to be satisfied with the results of the trade given their very different needs as a team.
What if Wiggins were in Cleveland?
When LeBron James decided to return to the Cavaliers as a free agent weeks after they drafted Wiggins, fans envisioned the two No. 1 picks teaming up on the wing, a la Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, with Wiggins eventually supplanting James as the team's centerpiece. But the way Wiggins has developed in Minnesota hasn't matched that ideal scenario.
While Wiggins is ahead of schedule as a scorer, averaging 20.1 points per game in his second season, the rest of his game lags behind. As I've discussed with fellow Insider Chad Ford, Wiggins has yet to translate his immense athleticism into box-score production at the defensive end.
The 6-foot-8 Wiggins is grabbing just 7.3 percent of available defensive rebounds, putting him near the bottom 10 among all players who have seen at least 500 minutes of action, and his steal rate (1.1 per 100 plays) is below average for a shooting guard (1.6). Pippen he is not.
At this stage of his career, Wiggins' best skill is his ability to create his own shot. He's using 28.6 percent of the Timberwolves' plays to attempt a shot, get to the foul line or commit a turnover, the highest usage rate for a second-year player since 2012-13, according to Basketball-Reference.com. But Wiggins hasn't been a particularly efficient scorer, making just 46.6 percent of his 2-point attempts and 23.5 percent of his 3s.
The last thing Cleveland needs, when healthy, is another shot creator. James is one of the league's most efficient creators, and the last sophomore with a higher usage rate than Wiggins just happened to be Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving. Because of their presence, Love has seen his own usage rate dip from 28.8 percent his final season in Minnesota to 21.7 percent in 2014-15 and 23.5 percent so far this season.
A smaller role would help Wiggins' efficiency, to some extent, but it wouldn't highlight his strengths. For the most part, Cleveland's other wing players besides James have been used as spot-up shooters, and Wiggins struggles in that role.
According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, 38 percent of plays involving the Cavaliers' non-LeBron wings have come in spot-up situations, and they've collectively posted an effective field-goal percentage (eFG, which weights 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) of 57.7 percent on those shots.
By contrast, just eight percent of Wiggins' plays have been spot-up attempts, and he's got a dismal 35.6 percent eFG on those plays.
Wiggins in Cleveland wouldn't have been all bad, of course. He already has proved to be an excellent post-up scorer, shooting 48.6 percent in post opportunities, according to Synergy, and could have taken advantage of smaller defenders playing shooting guard next to James.
Still, the developing Wiggins doesn't fit what the Cavaliers need from their wing players -- floor spacing and perimeter defense -- nearly as well as lesser talents like Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith.
How does Love fit in?
Meanwhile, for all the concern about how Love has fit in (or fit out), Cleveland has been rolling along. Since David Blatt went to a lineup with a healthy Irving at point guard and Tristan Thompson at center in place of Timofey Mozgov, the Cavaliers are 5-0 and the starters are outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/Stats.
More generally, Cleveland has been outstanding when Love plays with Thompson this season, posting a plus-14.1 net rating per 100 possessions -- far better than the Cavaliers' plus-1.0 net rating when Love plays with Mozgov. As impressive, Love-Thompson lineups have allowed just 98.3 points per 100 possessions, a rate that would put them fourth in the league. (Cleveland ranks seventh overall in defensive rating.)
There's one lineup combination that has been even better for the Cavaliers this season: Love at center and James at power forward. That combo has outscored opponents by an incredible 28.9 points per 100 possessions in 70 minutes, posting a 122.9 offensive rating and, more remarkably, a stout 94.0 defensive rating.
It remains to be seen how effective Love at center can be over longer stretches, given his limitations as a rim protector, but it makes sense that a smaller lineup would create better looks for Cleveland on offense.
Though Love hasn't been an outstanding 3-point shooter since joining the Cavaliers, making 36.6 percent of his attempts the past season and a half, opponents still must respect his outside shooting. That has opened things up for James, in particular. Each of the past two seasons, James has shot much more accurately in terms of effective field-goal percentage with Love on the court.
For the same reason Wiggins' shot creation wouldn't be as valuable in Cleveland, Love is never going to maximize his individual skills playing with James and Irving. But that's true almost any time that star players team up, and Love brings enough complementary skills to the table that he can still be dangerous in a smaller role.
That's what distinguishes him from the current version of Wiggins, and that's what makes both Cleveland and Minnesota winners of the trade.