Derrick Rose is still introduced last when the starting lineups are called. The Bulls' PA announcer Tommy Edwards launches into his familiar, "Frommmm Chi-cag-o ..." and the fans, many sporting a Rose No. 1 jersey, still cheer.
Yet the deafening roar that used to drown out Rose's name in those moments is gone. Jimmy Butler gets more of a rise, as does Joakim Noah when he enters the game.
While we're just a quarter into the 2015-16 season, Rose's startling decline leaves the Bulls' decision-makers with difficult, almost unmentionable questions.
Grumbles from social media and sports talk are but symptoms of a dawning crisis for the Bulls. The team looks like a borderline contender in its conference at times, but seldom when its franchise player is on the floor.
The Bulls have a Derrick Rose problem.
The moment it all changed
Rose is not a good NBA player and hasn't been for some time. One can easily identify the before/after line for Rose. It was April 28, 2012, when late in a playoff victory over Philadelphia, Rose's left knee crumpled -- he had suffered a torn ACL. Since then, Rose has seldom been the same player.
This season, the Bulls have been 8.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, per NBA.com/stats. ESPN's Real Plus-Minus, which adjusts those dire on/off results for every factor under the arena roof, looks even more grim for Rose. Through Monday, Rose ranked 417th of 420 players. He rated as the worst veteran starter in the league.
By wins above replacement (WARP), Rose ranked 424th, dead last on the Bulls. His PER is 9.8, in contrast to his career high of 23.5 in 2010-11.
You don't need advanced stats to see that both his offense and defense are abysmal. He's shooting 36.7 percent overall and 23.4 percent on 3-pointers. His field goal percentage in the restricted area has hovered around 40 percent, putting him right at the bottom of the league. His rebounding, steal and block numbers are way down from those in his MVP season.
At age 27, when many star players enjoy their best season, Rose is having the kind of year that could kill the Bulls' championship dreams.
Mouse over chart for complete stats
Does it get better?
For the Bulls, everything hinges on their belief that he's going to get better. "We're very encouraged with Derrick," coach Fred Hoiberg said last week after Rose enjoyed a rare solid shooting performance. "The amount of time and work he's put into his shot has paid off. It's a matter of getting reps and shooting with confidence."
Butler says the right things, too, as he did Friday: "As long as he's aggressive, that's the Derrick we need. He's getting it back slowly but surely."
Even Rose himself knows the mantra. "I'm not worried about my game," he said after a recent loss. "It's going to come. I'm just worried about how we close games."
And yes, he'll probably improve. He almost has to, given the depths to which his game has fallen. His vision remains blurry after his preseason eye injury -- the fracture of his left eye orbital socket from an elbow. After wearing a protective mask for two months, he played his first full game on Saturday without it. Getting back to 100 percent, or as close as possible, should boost Rose's game.
"At this point, he's been kind of working himself into shape," Bulls general manager Gar Forman said Monday. "It's going to be a process. It's only a month into the season, so it's like now training camp has ended, preseason has ended, and the regular season has started."
A lack of explosion
Before his injuries, Rose was as quick as any player in the league. He made best-of-the-best athletes look like they were standing still. But his explosiveness appears to be a fraction of what it once was.
He no longer terrorizes the defense off the dribble. Without the defense contracting to stop him, his assist rate has fallen from a career high of 40.2 four seasons ago to 28.2 this year.
Forman is insistent that the Rose we've seen this fall is not the Rose we're going to see going forward.
"As he works his way back, I think we'll see the same kind of explosiveness and ability to finish around the rim," Forman said. "Our athletic performance people obviously do a number of tests. And as far as his reactivity, his explosiveness, those types of things, he's right at the level he was at before the several injuries."
If that's the case, then his athleticism isn't showing up on the court as it did before. In his MVP season, Rose had 32 dunks. This season, he has had zero.
I've studied what happens when players lose their athleticism, based on statistical indicators such as usage rate, ability to draw fouls, rebounding, steals and blocks. For Rose, it's not a pretty picture.
On average, players who have lost as much as Rose play only one or two more seasons. Perhaps Rose can defy both his current numbers and his inability to play the way he used to. But if he does, that will make him an exception, not the typical case.
He might improve, but there is a huge chasm for Rose between getting better and returning to greatness. Once a player slips this far, he rarely, perhaps never, climbs back to his peak level.
Whose team is it?
Despite Rose's woes, Chicago remains several games over .500 and is still regarded as an Eastern Conference contender by mainstream observers and Vegas bettors. A big reason for that is shooting guard Jimmy Butler.
Taken as the last pick of the first round in 2011, Butler was supposed to be a role player. But instead of simply harassing LeBron James during the playoffs, Butler has exploded. He has become a legit All-Star and one of the top 20 players in the league.
"He's such a worker," Forman said. "It's been fun watching him each year add to his game, become more confident and become a better player."
Butler's pace this season puts him on target to finish with the best two-year WARP total of any Bull since the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen era. His RPM this season ranks 13th in the league and no other Eastern Conference 2-guard is within spitting distance of him.
Good news, right? Sure, but it's also a complicating factor for the Bulls. Clearly it should be Butler's team, yet Rose still uses more possessions. At times, the Bulls' offense has been an awkward exercise of their guards taking turns with the ball.
Chicago's offense during Hoiberg's first season as head coach has rattled around the bottom five of the league. But when Butler plays without Rose, the Bulls are 18.6 points per 100 possessions better than when Rose plays without Butler. And when they play together, they're worse than when Rose sits.
So while Hoiberg's offense hasn't been a success, Rose has been part of the problem, not the solution. And if the Bulls expected synergy between their backcourt mates, they have to be disappointed by the poor results.
What now for the Bulls?
Rose is on the books for $41.4 million for this season and 2016-17. He's still, for some, a hometown hero. But the Bulls aren't in a good position to just run out the clock on his contract, the way the Lakers are doing with Kobe Bryant by losing and helping themselves keep their protected draft pick.
Chicago is a contender, or at least that's what it aspires to be. The Bulls are not a young team, and they've been in or near the upper crust of the Eastern Conference for six seasons. The past five seasons have all ended in frustrating fashion. They want to win now. Rose's combination of high usage and rock-bottom efficiency undermines that goal.
It's not as simple as moving Rose off the ball. Even if he accepted the role, his shooting would make him a poor fit as a floor spacer.
All of this leaves the Bulls in a difficult position with four main options, ranked in order from most to least advisable.
Keep in mind that Bulls' owner Jerry Reinsdorf has shown a willingness to get rid of popular personnel, including coach Tom Thibodeau last spring, Luol Deng in 2014 and, in a previous era, Phil Jackson. Rose could be next.
1. Trade Rose. It wouldn't be easy, but no contract is completely untradeable. Maybe a team desperate for star power, such as the Nets or Lakers, would bite. The Nets, for instance, could send Chicago the expiring contract of Joe Johnson. The Lakers could give up one of their young guards while hoping Rose would return to stardom or become a trade piece for them.
2. Waive Rose. The Bulls are always cost-conscious, and releasing Rose via the stretch provision would move Chicago under the luxury tax line and free up around $14 million in cap space for next summer in addition to the other funds they likely to have available. Chicago could do it immediately, as the Pistons did with Josh Smith a year ago, or next summer.
3. Keep Rose but push him aside. It's not just Butler who deserves a greater opportunity. The Bulls love rookie Bobby Portis, and yet with such an established frontcourt, Hoiberg has played him a total of 27 minutes.
Meanwhile, Noah is on an expiring contract, Pau Gasol can opt out and Taj Gibson has a tradable contract. If one of those three becomes the odd man out to cut costs and make room for Portis, what do the Bulls get in return? If it's a new starting-quality point guard, we'll know more about how they really see Rose.
4. Keep hope alive. The official line in Chicago is that Rose will improve.
"I think we'll continue to see him improve as time goes on and he gets used to the style of play that Fred [Hoiberg] wants," Forman said. "He's healthy and he's putting in a lot of extra work."
Maybe that's still Chicago's best shot at reaching its ceiling for this campaign. But what if it doesn't happen? What if the Rose we've seen is the Rose we're going to get? What if the Bulls continue to be markedly better when he doesn't play?
Perhaps Rose can turn back the clock. Perhaps he won't remain one of the worst starters in the league. But if he does continue to falter, he will be making Chicago's decision much easier. The Bulls will have little choice but to start a new era without Derrick Rose.