A quick glance at the Eastern Conference standings would suggest that when the 11-7 Chicago Bulls visit the 12-9 Boston Celtics on Wednesday (ESPN/WatchESPN, 7 ET), it's a matchup of a contender against a team that should be just hoping to make the playoffs.
While that might indeed be the case, a closer reading of advanced statistics suggests the identity of the two teams is reversed. Boston has been the best team in the Eastern Conference this season -- even though if the playoffs started today, the Celtics would be sitting at home, not playing, as the ninth seed. Meanwhile, the Bulls have played more like the sixth-best team in the East.
What's more, the Celtics also have a much better outlook going forward.
Scoring margin and expected wins
Scoring margin is often the most meaningful and predictive column in the standings, and it tells you more about what a team has done than its win-loss record. Early in the season, it's not uncommon for a team's W-L record to tell a very different story from its margin of victory.
Boston has the best scoring margin in the Eastern Conference, while Chicago's is just ninth best.
The Pythagorean method allows us to use points scored and allowed per game to project expected wins. Based on that, eight teams -- more than a quarter of the league -- have won either two more or two fewer games than we'd expect.
As you might expect, the Celtics are one of those teams, and the Bulls aren't far outside that group.
Chicago playing -- and mostly winning -- close games
The Bulls have played 11 games decided by six points or fewer, tied for second most in the league with Toronto. (Cleveland has played 12.) Chicago is 8-3 in those games, tied with the 8-2 Houston Rockets for the most wins by six points or fewer and the reason why the Bulls have survived a mediocre start with a solid record.
Chicago had an even bigger discrepancy between its record and its point differential a week ago, when the team was 11-5 with a plus-1.6 differential. The Bulls were 8-1 in games decided by six points or fewer before losing their last two, both at home, to the Charlotte Hornets and the Phoenix Suns. Tuesday's two-point loss to the Suns, which came when Mirza Teletovic won the game with a rebound and twisting, one-footed fade-away shot just before the buzzer, illustrates how fleeting the thin margins on which Chicago was relying can be.
The news is not all bad for the Bulls. According to Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, Chicago has played the league's second-hardest schedule to date, easier only than that faced by the 5-16 New Orleans Pelicans. Adjusting the Bulls' differential for that schedule improves them from ninth in the East to seventh.
Chicago's wins are also banked. So ESPN's basketball power index (BPI) has the Bulls finishing with an average of 46 wins, sixth in the conference, though only three games ahead of the team projected to finish ninth, the Orlando Magic, coached by former Bulls coach Scott Skiles.
If Chicago can play better going forward than it has so far because of the return of starting forward Mike Dunleavy, who has yet to play this season following a microdiscectomy procedure on his ailing back, the Bulls might yet emerge as a favorite for home-court advantage in the opening round. Alas, doctors recently recommended at least another month of rest and rehab for Dunleavy.
Boston blowing out opponents
Meanwhile, the Celtics have had almost the opposite experience from Chicago. Boston has played just four games all season decided by six points or fewer, tied for the league's third-fewest total. Almost every close Celtics game has been decided before the closing minutes, leaving little room for the luck of the Irish. (Boston hasn't had much anyway, going 1-3 in close games.)
For the most part, those lopsided scores have favored the Celtics. Boston's nine wins by 15-plus points rank second in the NBA, trailing only the undefeated Golden State Warriors.
In case you're skeptical about the meaning of early blowout wins, eight teams have won precisely nine of their first 21 games by at least 15 points. (The high in that span is 11, by the 1996-97 Bulls.) Those teams have finished with a winning percentage equivalent to 58 wins, and five of the eight won the championship.
Don't start planning the parade route down Causeway Street just yet. The Celtics also have five double-digit losses, so their point differential so far is more consistent with that of a 55-win team than of a 60-win one. And again, the close losses Boston has suffered are banked, so BPI simulations have the Celtics winning an average of 50 games.
That's still a better projection than for the Bulls, the Hawks and the Miami Heat. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors (51 apiece, though that surely underrates the Cavaliers because of the injuries they've dealt with) have superior projections in the East.
So far, Boston seems to be living up to an impressive preseason projection from ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
RPM's high hopes for the Celtics were based largely on the team's depth, and Boston's ability to overcome the absence of starting guard Marcus Smart (who's been limited to nine games by multiple injuries) is one example of depth in action. Including Smart, the Celtics have nine regulars -- basically everyone in Brad Stevens' typical rotation save forward David Lee -- with a net rating of plus-3.0 per 100 possessions or better while on the court, per NBA.com/Stats.
Boston's ability to wear down thinner teams might not work as well in the playoffs, when opponents can extend the minutes of their best players. But even without the traditional superstars that Boston fans are accustomed to, and without the wins that would put them at the top of the standings, the Celtics have been the best team in the Eastern Conference.