Note: This post has been updated through the Dec. 6 games.
The Warriors already have made history by starting the season with 22 straight wins. ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) tells us that they are also closing in on another piece of history: the record for wins in a season -- 72 -- set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
The 1995-96 Bulls won 20 of their first 22 games. Jordan was on his way to another scoring title, NBA MVP award and NBA Finals MVP award. They were the most dominating team in NBA history -- yet this season's Warriors might be better.
BPI projections for Warriors
Those Michael Jordan-led Bulls set the standard, but these Warriors, with Stephen "Shocked When He Misses" Curry, have been so dominant and in so many different ways that BPI gives them a 45 percent chance to get to 72 or more wins. And to break the Bulls' record? The Warriors are up to a solid 31 percent chance to set a new standard with 73 or more wins.
In creating the daily BPI projections, we run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, based on schedule, the relative strength of each team, days of rest, game location and so on.
Based on these simulations, we can see, for instance, that the Warriors have a 29 percent chance to get to Christmas Day undefeated. That is when they host a Finals rematch with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers (ABC/WatchESPN, 5 ET). And if they do win the six games before that to put them at 28-0, Golden State will surpass the modern standard of 27 straight wins, set by LeBron's Miami Heat team three seasons ago. (The all-time record is 33 straight wins, by the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers.)
The Warriors are projected to be favored in every remaining regular-season game this season except for one, according to BPI -- current projections have the Spurs with a 51 percent chance of beating Golden State on April 10 in San Antonio, during the final week of the season. But that's not the same as saying BPI expects the Warriors to actually win 81 games. In fact, BPI projects the Warriors to finish with 71 wins and 11 losses.
BPI projects the Warriors to repeat as NBA champions in an incredible 73 percent of simulations -- yes, 73. That doesn't mean the Warriors should start printing championship T-shirts yet, but it does put their start into perspective. Typically, the title favorite is at about 30 to 35 percent to win it all.
Where the Warriors might surpass the Bulls
The Warriors are outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.9 points per game, which would set the all-time record. The 1995-96 Bulls outscored opponents by 12.2 points per game. The current record is held by the 1971-72 Lakers at 12.3 points per game.
Mouse over bars for leaderboard as of Dec. 6.
After 22 games, the Warriors' edge over the Bulls is pretty slight on each end of the floor -- about two points on each end for every 100 possessions. The Bulls had an offensive rating (ORtg) of 115 points per 100 possessions and the Warriors an ORtg of 117. On defense, the Warriors allow 102 points per 100 possessions (DRtg), compared to the Bulls at 104. But overall that adds up to an advantage of four points per 100 possessions for the Warriors over the Bulls after 22 games.
The Warriors win every which way
The real difference maker for the Warriors, and why they are in position to set a record for wins, is their adaptability.
The Warriors tend to play fast, shoot extremely well and move the ball around to create efficient shots, which often means Curry hitting shot after crazy shot. They also play a defensive style that is focused on limiting opponents' shooting efficiency, not on forcing turnovers. But despite these preferences, they don't actually have to play that way to win.
The Warriors play at a pace of 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes, fourth-fastest in the league, but their offense can be successful at both faster and slower speeds. On Nov. 28, they played the Kings at a pace of 95 and had an ORtg of 126.4, whereas the night before against the Suns they played at a pace of 106.1 and had an ORtg of 127.2.
They can also survive poor shooting nights from Curry and the team. While they lead the league with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 57 percent (the Thunder are a distant second at 51 percent), they have had nights when that level of accuracy just does not materialize. On opening night against the Pelicans, for example, they had an eFG of 47 percent, and on Nov. 7 against the Kings their eFG was 46 percent, and Curry hit only 20 percent of his 3-point attempts. They won those games by an average of 12.5 points, which would be the all-time record for a season.
It's the same story on defense. They are fourth best in the league in opponent eFG, but the Suns had an eFG of 70 percent against the Warriors (who posted an abysmal Drtg that night of 109.3) and the Timberwolves had an eFG of 64 percent with an Ortg of 118 on Nov. 12. The Warriors won those games by an average of 21 points.
The Warriors can beat you playing big with Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli or Marreese Speights. Of their lineups involving one of those three players, at a minimum of 20 minutes, only one has a negative raw plus-minus.
And of course, their so-called "lineup of death" employs Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. This "small" lineup forces opponents to use a center to guard Green or put their center on the bench, and for this reason holds the best raw plus-minus in the league at 91 points in only 64 minutes. That translates into an incredible stat: If they were able to play that lineup for all 48 minutes of a game, the Warriors would be beating opponents by 68 points per night.
The Bulls had Jordan, though
The Bulls, on the other hand, had their unmatchable core strength: Michael Jordan. The Bulls relied on Jordan to be Jordan and be incredible. When Jordan had an off-night, which was rare in 1995-96, the Bulls were sometimes in trouble.
In their first 22 games, their two losses came on nights when Jordan shot 40 percent or worse from the field. Overall that season, the Bulls won 71 percent of their games in which Jordan shot 40 percent or worse as opposed to 91 percent of their games in which he shot better than 40 percent.
The Bulls are very deserving of the label of greatest team ever, and this incredible start by the Warriors doesn't change that yet. But based on the first 22 games of the season, we have to acknowledge that we might just be seeing something better than the best ever in this season's Golden State Warriors.