The panel has spoken. Fret not, Cavaliers fans. We think LeBron James will finally bring a championship to Cleveland. But don't expect much more than that.
In an ESPN Summer Forecast survey of 32 NBA experts that asked how many titles James will win in Cleveland, the most common vote was one (44 percent). The next most popular estimate was two titles (34 percent) followed by three (19 percent). There was one lone vote for zero titles. (No, Pat Riley was not on the panel.)
Worth noting: The question to the panel was not phrased with the assumption that he'd stay in Cleveland the rest of his career. It could be that those voters who do not envision multiple titles in Cleveland are leaving the door open that James could switch teams.
But let's assume for this breakdown that James will indeed unpack his bags for good and stay in Cleveland. If we tally up all the responses, it turns out that we're expecting James to win 1.7 titles as a Cav, just shy of his two championships in Miami.
So, is just one title a pessimistic outlook for James? For someone as good as the King, how many more titles can we reasonably expect now that he's 30 years old? Let's look at what Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and the rest of his statistical peers accomplished in their 30s to see if we're being hard on James' outlook.
What history says
The clock is ticking for James. In his age-30 season, he came within two victories of winning the Cavs' first championship in the team's 45-year history. But our forecast sees him getting over the hump and pulling down at least another title.
James is endlessly compared to the greats. Is this a bearish outlook compared to them? To help answer that question, I pulled up the top 10 in win shares through their age-30 season, according to Basketball-Reference.com. James leads the pack with 178.9 cumulative win shares, followed by some names you might know. To create a baseline expectation, I dug up how many titles each player won after his age-30 season. (I emphasize "after" age-30 season because Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan both won titles during their age-30 season, but those were not counted here so that we're comparing apples to apples.)
What did we learn? Let's take a look:
The panel looks to be spot-on. Eight of the 10 all-timers did not win multiple titles after James' age. Magic Johnson, who never won it all after his 1988 championship, is a bit of an outlier; he left the game when he was 32 years old after he was diagnosed as having HIV. On the other end of the spectrum, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar grabbed five of his six career championships after he turned 30, which is a stunning figure. It helps to play into your 40s. Keeping doing that yoga, LeBron.
It might surprise folks that even the best players of all time didn't win multiple titles late in their career. Jordan, of course, did. So naturally, every player who doesn't live up to that expectation has failed miserably and should just quit now out of shame . . .
The greats averaged 1.5 titles after turning 30, which makes the panel's expectation of 1.7 for James a tad more bullish than the historical baseline. If James wins just one title in Cleveland the rest of the way, he'll be as successful as Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Shaquille O'Neal as they left their primes. If James wins two, he'd outperform the norm.
The mileage factor
Comparing James to those greats seems foolish. He is a freakish physical specimen like we've never seen in NBA history. He's as durable as they come, having never missed more than 15 games in any season.
But as the saying goes, Father Time is undefeated. Sports scientists around the world agreed James looked exhausted in the Finals last season, firing up missed jumper after missed jumper while handling the ball practically at all times. Durability also means miles. And all those miles could be catching up.
Including the playoffs, James has played 43,330 minutes through age 30, which is about 2,000 more minutes than the next-highest all-time figure. In other words, James has broken the record and played an additional season on top of that.
As crazy as it sounds, James has already played more career minutes than Larry Bird, Steve Nash and Magic Johnson. Yes, more than A.C. Green, who played 15 straight seasons without missing a game. James has already racked up more miles than the guy they called "Iron Man."
Two names you won't find on the above list: Abdul-Jabbar and Jordan -- the guys who won multiple titles in their 30s. Playing in college kept their minutes totals lower than the preps-to-pros guys like James, Bryant and Garnett. In fact, James has played 13,000 minutes more than Jordan did at age 30. And even if we include college minutes, their seasons are half as long as the NBA's grind anyway. Looking at it this way, it's possible that Abdul-Jabbar and Jordan were more fresh during their title windows.
James will start to show signs of breaking down soon if he hasn't already. James' productivity declined by 12 percent last season, according to player efficiency rating (PER), and 25 percent if we use win shares per minute as a barometer. That puts the onus on Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to shoulder the load as they enter their primes while James leaves his behind.
If we use history as a guide, we should expect at least one more title in James' future. That would make Cleveland's title drought history.