In our society of instant gratification, change is the only constant in the NBA and it's often couched as "improvement."
A common rationale: Didn't win the championship? Obviously the collection of talent we put together was vastly inferior!
Team owners can be just as impulsive as fans, and the euphoria of making a blockbuster trade or bringing in a big-name player can outweigh the patience required to be successful in the long term, not unlike buying and selling stocks based on how the market is doing.
No, in today's NBA, perhaps the most valuable commodity is continuity. Identity and culture can't happen if they aren't given a chance to develop organically and sustained. I often use the analogy of baking a cake, where you have to put the cake mix in the oven for 20 minutes at 400 degrees; you can't put the oven to 800 degrees and expect the process to occur twice as fast.
That's not to say teams don't need to make changes. Most rosters aren't good enough to win at the highest levels, no matter how much time you give them; and even at the highest levels of competition, the ability to stay flexible enough for future continued improvement is critical. But there's a value in amassing institutional knowledge from top to bottom, making it easier for everyone in the organization to process information.
Within that context, we can evaluate the ESPN Summer Forecast for the Western Conference champs, and it should come as no surprise that five of the six teams remained relatively stable, roster-wise.
1. Golden State Warriors (122 points)
When you post one of the 10 best seasons in NBA history en route to winning the championship, massive overhaul should be the last thing on anyone's mind. Change is coming for the Warriors, but those events figure to take place in 12-18 months, when decisions about aging veterans such as Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala will have to be made.
For now, Golden State made no changes to its rotation, with the major transaction of note being the trade of David Lee for Gerald Wallace, whom they then flipped for Jason Thompson. Like Lee, Thompson doesn't figure to be a nightly fixture, but rather a situational big. With coach Steve Kerr installing new wrinkles and nuances to offensive and defensive schemes, and the players benefiting from building off last season, the Warriors have an enormous leg up on the rest of the field.
2. San Antonio Spurs (96)
I am considerably lower on the Spurs than the Summer Forecast, mainly for the continuity concerns. No team in the NBA has benefited from its players amassing institutional knowledge more than the Spurs, and their brand of basketball (which relies heavily on making fewer errors than their opponents) is based on that knowledge. Adding a major piece such as LaMarcus Aldridge, while splashy, takes a while to integrate on both ends of the floor as everyone readjusts to find their new comfort zone among new teammates.
Add to that the loss of mainstays Tiago Splitter and Cory Joseph, and you'll see a very different Spurs team this season. This is no criticism of San Antonio's offseason. Rather, Aldridge represented an opportunity for the Spurs to extend their contention window another three or four seasons by infusing a younger franchise cornerstone. Consider it a tempered reaction to the prognostication that the Spurs will set the world afire from the gate.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (30)
I'm surprised that the gap between No. 2 and No. 3 is almost triple the gap between Nos. 1 and 2. I'm also surprised it was the Thunder that wrested the third spot. Much of their success this season will rest on the hope Kevin Durant's injuries are a thing of the past, and not a given due to the nature of his injury (Jones fracture). Durant's health aside, we don't know how the team will react to the specter of his impending free agency, although Oklahoma City's insular culture will likely block out the pressures of that situation.
The Thunder also made a switch in the coaching department, where Billy Donovan attempts to make the jump from collegiate ranks to coaching grown men, and his ability to adjust to the pro game also will play a role. Finally, although the Thunder made their moves last February, injuries robbed them of the chance of building much on-court chemistry. Durant never played with the trade-deadline acquisitions of Enes Kanter, Kyle Singler and D.J. Augustin (although he did play collegiately with Augustin), and Serge Ibaka appeared in only 10 games with them. New-ish teammates, new playbooks, injury recovery and the cloud of 2016 is a lot of uncertainty to take into account when talking about winning the West.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (23)
What a summer. After nearly falling off the cliff by losing their starting center, the Clippers kept us all entertained with their buzzer-beating re-courtship of DeAndre Jordan. Swapping out last summer's failed free-agent signee Spencer Hawes, along with Matt Barnes, for talented-but-troubled Lance Stephenson and signing Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, and Pablo Prigioni were all ambitious moves along the margins to improve the depth of a team whose starting lineup posted the best five-man plus-minus in the league last season.
The Clippers' mismanagement of their cap situation put them in the position to have to make these kind of moves to improve their roster. However, they managed to improve their team (on paper) without giving up any major pieces. Like the Thunder, the Clippers have to develop some on-court chemistry, but they aren't burdened by many of the other issues that might get in the way of a team's Finals run.
5. Houston Rockets (9)
The Rockets might be the most underrated team in this category. Mind you, I'm not saying they'll win the West -- for sure they have their fair share of obstacles. But for a team that made the conference finals last season despite rampant injury issues of their own, has an MVP candidate in the prime of his career in James Harden and returns an elite center in Dwight Howard, and added a high-level point guard in Ty Lawson for practically nothing, the idea that they'd place so far back behind the three teams directly ahead of them is tough to understand.
Of all the teams in the West (excluding the Warriors), the Rockets did the most to improve their team while maintaining continuity. I have questions as to whether Lawson and Harden can flourish on court together, as both are ball dominant ball handlers, and I still think Houston has a major leadership void, but this is a team that is talented and knows exactly how it wants to play.
6. Memphis Grizzlies (4)
Like Houston, Memphis has improved without making major changes to its roster. Adding Matt Barnes gives them another gritty defender on the perimeter with the added benefit of being able to knock down an open 3, while Brandan Wright might have been the value signing of the summer. In the continuity and identity departments, the Grizzlies continue to score high marks.
Unfortunately, they still struggle with the same issues that ultimately put a cap on their ability to compete for a title: the inability to play any style of basketball other than their own. As the league transitions to 4-out offenses, Memphis still doesn't have a viable small-ball 4 who can consistently stretch out defenses with his shooting, and that handcuffs their ability to compete against the other elite teams in the West.