Last week's report by the Cleveland Plain Dealer that Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving may not return until January from the fractured patella he suffered during Game 1 of the NBA Finals raised some eyebrows around the league.
Odds are Irving will be back during 2015. The January date was presented as something of a worst-case scenario, not a certainty or even a likelihood. ESPN's Brian Windhorst said last week on SportsCenter that while there's as yet no timetable for Irving's return, he'd be surprised if the All-Star point guard didn't play before January.
No matter when Irving ultimately rejoins the Cleveland starting five, it shouldn't change the Cavaliers' position as favorites to win the Eastern Conference, as reflected by their dominant performance in the ESPN Summer Forecast's survey of most likely East champions.
Cleveland elite without Irving
Don't expect the Cavaliers to limp along until Irving returns to the lineup. As they demonstrated during the most recent postseason, when they won four games in which Irving didn't play at all and another (their Game 6 win to close out their series with the Chicago Bulls) in which he left after playing 12 minutes, Cleveland can win without its point guard.
Certainly, the Cavaliers won't be able to rely on the same kind of superhuman effort from LeBron James over an extended period during the regular season. But Cleveland is better equipped to replace Irving in 2015-16 after signing Mo Williams as a backup point guard.
Williams and Matthew Dellavedova, who started in Irving's place during the postseason, give coach David Blatt a pair of different options at point guard. While neither can replace Irving's scoring ability, Williams is a good fit with the Cavaliers' starting five offensively because of his ability to knock down open jumpers. (He's a career 37.9 percent 3-point shooter, including 40.8 percent accuracy during his last stint in Cleveland, the best stretch of his NBA career.) Dellavedova, meanwhile, brings pesky defense unlike either Irving or Williams.
A projection based on the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus shows Cleveland as the league's third-best team in 2015-16 without Irving in the lineup. The Cavaliers are projected to have the league's third-best offense on a per-possession basis and seventh-best defensive rating -- an improvement from 2014-15, when they finished fourth and 20th, respectively. (Cleveland had the league's best offense and ranked 15th in defensive rating after James' return to the lineup in mid-January.) Such a combination would typically be good for a win total in the high 50s.
No clear challenger in the East
Even in the event the Cavaliers fall short of lofty projections without Irving in the lineup, it's not clear who might take advantage. The Atlanta Hawks, who were the East's best team in the regular season in 2014-15 with a 60-22 record, are likely to take a step backward because of regression to the mean -- particularly in terms of health -- and the loss of starting forward DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors in free agency.
The Summer Forecast panel has the Hawks and Bulls second in the East with predicted 50-32 records, nine games shy of the 59 wins forecast for Cleveland. RPM-based projections show a similar gap between the Cavaliers and the rest of the conference. By contrast, the more crowded West forecast has six teams winning at least 51 games, all within nine games of first place.
Of course, nobody would have predicted a 60-win season for Atlanta this time a year ago. Though no individual team is likely to win many more than 50 games, it's likely that whoever emerges from the pack will win somewhere in the mid-50s or higher by having everything come together and outperforming expectation much like the 2014-15 Hawks. So it's possible that if the Cavaliers stumble, playing without Irving for an extended stretch could cost them home-court advantage throughout the East.
However, going out on the road for the Eastern Conference finals proved little obstacle for Cleveland. Even with Irving limited and power forward Kevin Love sidelined following shoulder surgery, the Cavaliers stole back home court by winning Game 1 at Atlanta and went on to sweep the series when the Hawks suffered injuries of their own.
Cavaliers clear favorites in East
James' teams have won the East and reached the NBA Finals five consecutive seasons -- his four with the Miami Heat and last season in Cleveland -- and there's no reason, including Irving's health, to expect that to change in 2015-16. No matter how much time Irving misses, the Cavaliers should still have a chance to win 60 games, a mark anyone else in the East will be hard-pressed to reach.
Come the postseason, when Irving should have had plenty of time to work off the rust no matter when he returns, Cleveland's talent edge figures to be overwhelming. Remember, last season's Cavaliers tied the best record en route to the NBA Finals (12-2) since the first round expanded to the best-of-seven format in 2003, and that was without Love for the final two series. Unless an unexpected rival rises from the second tier of East contenders, Cleveland might have an even easier path to the Finals this time around.