By the time the NBA playoffs roll around next spring, it will have been nearly four years since Kobe Bryant suited up for a playoff game.
It will be approaching six years since he won his fifth championship ring with the Los Angeles Lakers. He has finished the last three seasons on the sidelines. With his contract expiring and his NBA experience meter about to click over to 20 years, it's fair to wonder whether this will be it for one of the game's greatest players. Bryant has hinted in the past that this season might be it, though he's left enough wiggle room for the rest of us to speculate.
We were posed this question in the Summer Forecast, and 56 percent of voters decided that Bryant will play on after this season. In reality, no one really knows, and perhaps Bryant himself doesn't know, either.
There's plenty to write regarding the basketball aspect of this. How will Bryant's presence help or hurt the Lakers' growing gaggle of young players? Is he shooting too much? (The eternal question with Bryant.) Can the Lakers afford to commit future cap space to him when they are trying so hard to build the right way and attract an in-his-prime superstar? But today, I want to focus on the historical aspect of this possibly being Kobe Bryant's last stand. Given the physical woes of his last three seasons, what would a successful farewell look like?
For Bryant, his final season, whenever it is, will be his one chance to create a favorable last impression for fans and young players alike. He enters the 2015-16 season facing enormous challenges. His Lakers are coming off their worst-ever season. He's played 41 games total the last two seasons. When he did play last season, he averaged 22.3 points in 35 games. But he also put up an astronomical 35 percent usage rate and finished in the 12th percentile of effective field goal percentage. With Bryant as the primary option of the Lakers' offense, L.A. barely reached a point per possession while he was on the floor. Is putting up an empty scoring average for a bad team really a fitting swan song for a five-time champion? In the end, the answer to that is really up to Bryant and his body's ability to hold up for a full season.
Bryant just turned 37, and two decades of professional basketball take a toll, as we've seen the last couple of years. We shouldn't expect Bryant to suddenly turn the clock back a decade and put up 35 points per game. It would be fun if it happened, but it's not realistic.
So just how should we establish our expectations for Bryant's just-might-be last season? For that, we can scroll through the final outcomes for Bryant's true peers: the upper-tier Hall of Famers from the NBA's history books. We'll rank the scenarios from worst to best.
The Steve Nash Scenario
This one is fresh in our minds, and of course Bryant got to see Nash's decline up close. Nash was injured, tried for more than one season to outwork the disintegration of his body, and ultimately was unable to do so. He ended up as an expiring contract and a placeholder for cap space.
There was nothing undignified about it -- Nash did everything he could to get back for one more quality run. It just didn't happen.
Nevertheless, we have to admit that this is the worst-case scenario for a Bryant swan song: He simply isn't able to stay on the court because his body won't cooperate.
The Michael Jordan Scenario I
We're talking Wizards-era Jordan here. I am not in the camp of those who think Jordan's Washington coda detracts from his overall legacy, and I think that now, 12 years removed, we can see that it really doesn't. I know that I was thrilled to get to see Jordan play out the string, just as I'm hoping to have the chance to do so over the next season or two with Bryant. We get these legends for only so long, and every chance to savor their skills should be appreciated for what it is. Jordan was nowhere near his Bulls-era self, either in terms of athleticism or productivity.
Nevertheless, what he did at ages 38 and 39 was pretty amazing. He averaged 20 points at age 39, down from 21.2 the season before. He did this after being away from the game for three years. But the analyst in me knows those scoring averages were largely hollow, as Jordan's percentages were well below average. And the bottom line is that he wasn't able to get the Wizards into the playoffs. I see this as the most likely outcome for Bryant, if even a little optimistic. A superficially OK-ish scoring average, low efficiency, with a few sparkling games sprinkled into the mix to remind us of what once was. But no return to the playoffs.
The Larry Bird Scenario
This one is a mix of the first two scenarios and a rosier one. Bird was still a very good player during his final season with the Celtics. Unfortunately, Bird's ongoing back issues limited him to 45 games and pushed him into early retirement.
But those 45 games were enough to give us some great last-season memories of Bird's greatness. On March 15 of that season, he put up 49 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists in a double-overtime win over a Portland team that eventually made the NBA Finals. Boston made the playoffs and lost a first-round series during which Bird had limited availability. But in the one game the Celtics won, Bird had 16 points, six rebounds and 14 assists. If Bryant can't get all the way back physically, is it too much to ask for one or two more vintage 50-point outbursts, perhaps one of them punctuated by a buzzer-beater?
The Miller, Stockton and Havlicek Scenarios
These are the dignified farewells. Hall of Famers who we kind of figured were playing their last seasons (we knew it was the case for John Havlicek), who weren't at peak levels but still effectively went about doing the things they'd always done. Reggie Miller averaged 14.8 points in 66 games, and then scored 27 on 16 shots in the last game of a second-round playoff loss that ended his career. John Stockton played and started every Jazz game for the 12th time in his previous 13 years and led the league in assist rate as Utah made the playoffs.
Havlicek averaged 16.1 points in 82 games for a Celtics dynasty two seasons removed from another championship, and one year away from Bird's arrival. In his final game, Havlicek put up 29 points and eight assists, and received a seven-minute standing ovation at Boston Garden. Boston was bad that season, but that last image of Havlicek is indelible. These three players, like Bryant, spent their entire careers with a single franchise, and if Bryant's last season is like any of these, that's a great outcome.
The Wilt and Russell Scenarios
Now we get into the realm of fantasy. Wilt Chamberlain put up the greatest individual final season in history, averaging 13.2 points and a league-best 18.6 rebounds. He also played 43 minutes per game at age 36 and shot 72.7 percent from the floor as the Lakers advanced to the Finals.
Bill Russell played and coached the Celtics to the 11th championship of his 13-year career. If Bryant were to have a Bryant-like season, and did so in the service of high-level winning, that would be a season we'd never forget. Then he'd have to walk away, right? Alas, this is not going to happen.
The Michael Jordan Scenario II
Which brings us to the ending that so many thought Jordan should have stuck with. He was still the best player in the game, paced the NBA in scoring, and not only led the Bulls to a sixth title but also hit the game-winning shot to make it happen. Unfortunately, even if Bryant were to magically get back to his pre-injury level of play, this scenario won't happen, either. The Lakers just don't have the talent or experience.
But, to paraphrase Hemingway, isn't it pretty to think of this happening? In any event, the Jordan sagas tell us a couple of things. First of all, most players, even great ones, seem less concerned with their own histories than the rest of us. And Bryant doesn't need this kind of storybook finish to cement his legacy. He just needs to stay on the floor and play to win. The rest will take care of itself.