On Friday, the ESPN Summer Forecast panel shared its opinions on best newcomers.
To give a different perspective, I ranked players who changed teams this summer based on their projected ratings in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and my wins above replacement player (WARP), via the SCHOENE projection system.
Here's a look at the top 10 newcomers by the combination of these two all-in-one stats.
1. Greg Monroe | C
Milwaukee Bucks
Projected RPM: 3.6
Projected WARP: 7.1
I'm hardly disagreeing with voters who overwhelmingly picked LaMarcus Aldridge as the best newcomer, particularly in terms of his impact on the postseason. But consider this a reminder that Monroe is an awfully good player when he gets to play his natural center position. Last season, Monroe averaged 18.5 points and 11.9 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 49.6 percent from the field. But that doesn't tell the full story. Check out Monroe's stats per 36 minutes with and without center Andre Drummond on the floor:
When at center, Monroe was a totally different and far more effective player. (Compare Aldridge's 23.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes.) And that's the position he'll get to play on a full-time basis again this season in Milwaukee.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge | PF
San Antonio Spurs
Projected RPM: 3.7
Projected WARP: 5.5
With four consecutive All-Star appearances and three All-NBA teams to his credit, Aldridge has the most pedigree of any player who changed teams this summer. And while there might be some awkwardness with how he'll fit into San Antonio's system, if there's any coach I trust to figure it out it's Gregg Popovich.
3. Tyson Chandler | C
Phoenix Suns
Projected RPM: 2.8
Projected WARP: 6.3
Chandler's age -- he'll turn 33 in October -- limits his long-term value compared to other players who changed teams. But barring a recurrence of the health problems that plagued him with the New York Knicks, Chandler should still be a top newcomer next season. After all, he posted the best PER of his career (20.1) in 2014-15 with the Dallas Mavericks. I'm a bit baffled why he got fewer votes for best newcomer than Matt Barnes.
4. DeMarre Carroll | SF
Toronto Raptors
Projected RPM: 2.4
Projected WARP: 5.8
Though Carroll is unlikely to repeat last year's career-best 39.5 percent shooting from 3-point range (SCHOENE pegs him for 36.5 percent, right near his career mark), his other skills should travel well north of the border. In particular, Carroll's defense will be a welcome addition to a Toronto team that struggled to slow big wings in recent seasons.
5. Ty Lawson | PG
Houston Rockets
Projected RPM: 2.8
Projected WARP: 5.5
The best player to change teams via trade this summer, Lawson's second-place finish in best newcomer voting probably reflects that he's likely to have more impact on the playoffs than anyone besides Aldridge. Lawson's arrival boosts Houston's standing in the Western Conference by giving the Rockets another playmaker to go with MVP runner-up James Harden.
6. Monta Ellis | SG
Indiana Pacers
Projected RPM: 2.9
Projected WARP: 3.7
While Ellis didn't ultimately improve his own efficiency much in Dallas -- his .509 true shooting percentage last season was slightly worse than his career mark of .525 -- the Mavericks did score efficiently with him on the floor. When Ellis played with Dirk Nowitzki last season, Dallas averaged 110 points per 100 possessions, an offensive rating that would have led the league, according to NBA.com/Stats. Ellis will hope to have the same impact on an Indiana offense in need of shot creators.
7. Deron Williams | PG
Dallas Mavericks
Projected RPM: 3.0
Projected WARP: 5.1
It's a testament to how far Williams' star has fallen that he didn't receive a single vote for best newcomer, while new Dallas teammates Wesley Matthews and rookie Justin Anderson did. Freed from the context of his max salary, Williams can remind everyone that he's still an effective point guard when healthy.
8. Nicolas Batum | SF
Charlotte Hornets
Projected RPM: 0.4
Projected WARP: 6.2
Even if RPM isn't impressed, Batum's versatile skill set should be an ideal fit for the Charlotte offense. Despite playing through a wrist injury that hampered his shooting, Batum made 100 3-pointers last season. That mark, his lowest since 2009-10, would have led the Hornets (Marvin Williams made a team-high 95 triples). Batum's wing playmaking also will be a useful addition; his 348 assists would have led the team too (in part because starting point guard Kemba Walker missed 20 games due to injury).
9. Amir Johnson | F/C
Boston Celtics
Projected RPM: 4.1
Projected WARP: 3.3
A starter on the first edition of my RPM All-Stars, Johnson typically had a positive impact on the Raptors while on the court. They were particularly good last season when Johnson played center -- the role he'll likely play in Boston -- outscoring opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats.
10. Robin Lopez | C
New York Knicks
Projected RPM: 2.1
Projected WARP: 3.8
While several of the Knicks' additions this season are dubious upgrades at best, there's no denying how much better New York has gotten in the middle by signing Lopez to a four-year, $54 million deal. A solid rim protector whose ability to box out helps teammates get rebounds, Lopez is also surprisingly skilled as a pick-and-roll big man.