Projected loss of lotto picks dooms Knicks and Nets in 2016 draft

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Kevin Pelton: Chad, most of the teams at the bottom of the projected conference standings in ESPN's Summer Forecast can at least look forward to getting a good draft pick for their trouble. Not so with the New York Knicks. Let's follow the bouncing draft pick.

The Knicks gave up swap rights on their 2016 first-round pick as the final piece of the Carmelo Anthony trade more than four years ago. That wouldn't necessarily be so bad, since the Denver Nuggets are also projected as one of the league's bottom five teams by the Forecast panel. While Denver wins by more than doubling its chances at a top-three pick, New York still would have been likely to land a top-10 pick ... except the Knicks subsequently sent that pick to the Toronto Raptors as part of the return for Andrea Bargnani.

That's right. For the privilege of paying the now-departed Bargnani $23 million for 2,100 minutes of replacement-level play, New York gave up what will most likely be a lottery pick -- and possibly a very good one (this was pre-Phil Jackson, of course). Looking ahead to the 2016 draft, how bad is this for the Knicks? How would the players projected in the lottery fit in New York?

Chad Ford: It's devastating. The Knicks really have two great pieces, each at radically different points in their careers. Anthony is in his prime and should be on the decline shortly. This year's lottery pick, Kristaps Porzingis, has enough talent to be the best player from the draft, but he's several years away from being able to help New York win. The Knicks went ahead and loaded up on veterans this summer -- none good enough to get them out of the lottery. In fact, I agree with our forecast assessment that New York should be the second-worst team in the East ahead of only the Philadelphia 76ers.

That means the Knicks are likely going to miss out on one of three elite talents in this draft -- LSU's Ben Simmons, Kentucky's Skal Labissiere and Cal's Jaylen Brown. Of the three, Simmons is the one who looks like he could become a superstar -- a 6-foot-10 power point forward who evokes comparisons from scouts to both LeBron James and Magic Johnson. Labissiere and Brown are also very, very good. Labissiere is an athletic big man who can play both inside and out and is a terrific rim protector. Brown is a super-athletic wing who already has an NBA body. All three guys would give the Knicks a second elite building block and hope for the future. Instead, they'll get nothing. Given that we both believe that the Nuggets will also be near the bottom of the West, this is a major setback for the long-term future of the Knicks.

Pelton: OK, let's flip the perspective. What kind of player might make sense for a Toronto squad that should be adding a lottery pick to the core of a playoff team?

Ford: Well, it's tough to predict where the Raptors land after the lottery plays out. It will probably be a pick between No. 2 and No. 8. The draft gets a little weaker after Simmons, Labissiere and Brown are off the board, but there's talent there for sure. Kentucky point guard Jamal Murray might be the favorite. He's Canadian and has been dominant in international play. He's equally good passing the ball and scoring and has great size for his position at 6-5. Yes, Toronto just signed fellow Canadian Cory Joseph, and Kyle Lowry has three years left on his contract, but if Murray is the real deal both of those other guys are movable. Murray can also swing over to the 2.

There are other options. Duke's Brandon Ingram is a 6-10 small forward with a silky game. He's skinny, but he's got elite size and skill set for his position. San Diego State's Malik Pope is very similar to Ingram. Both are young and raw but have crazy potential. And don't count out Croatia's Dragan Bender, a 7-foot forward who might be this year's Porzingis. We all know that Masai Ujiri loves international guys. All four of those players are great choices, assuming they don't land Simmons, Labissierre or Brown. All are fits for Toronto, in my opinion.

One last question for you, Kevin. The Knicks aren't the only New York team in a bad spot. The Nets are also forecast to finish in the lottery, and they'll be sending their pick to the Celtics without any protection at all. We probably should give them some love too.

Pelton: In some ways, I think Brooklyn's lost pick might be more painful. Although the Nets at least got something out of their trade with Boston, New York is done giving up first-round picks after this season. Brooklyn still has a swap option with the Celtics in 2017 and is giving them a first-round pick outright again in 2018.

Making matters worse, I actually think the forecast panel has it wrong. I expect the Nets to be the weaker of the two teams in the Big Apple this season, meaning there's a good chance they send a top-five pick to Boston. How much can that jump start the Celtics' move from good to great?

Ford: I agree, long term it's worse. At least the Knicks have Porzingis and will have their first-round pick (barring doing something crazy) in 2017. The Nets don't really have one young building block on their roster -- though I do like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -- and look like a lottery team. I had them finishing 13th, with only the Knicks and Sixers worse. That should give the Celtics a top-five pick.

For Boston, there's some good news and some bad news. The Celtics really wanted the top-five pick in this year's draft. That's why they offered three first-rounders, including this one, to the Charlotte Hornets on draft night in an attempt to get Justise Winslow. Winslow would be a top-two or top-three pick in 2016. This year, after Simmons is off the board, things get weaker. We'll see if Frank Kaminsky was really worth all of that to Charlotte.

But Boston will still be happy with a top-five pick in 2016, and as I pointed out, there will be talent -- especially at the small forward position, where the Celtics could use some help. I don't think the combination of Evan Turner, Jonas Jerebko, Jae Crowder and Perry Jones is the long-term answer (though I am excited to see what Brad Stevens could possibly get out of Jones). With Ingram, Pope and Bender all in that range, Boston should be able to land one of those guys. I could also see the Celtics giving a big man like Marquette's Henry Ellenson (who draws some comps to Kevin Love) or Utah's Jakob Poeltl some love. They have some young bigs, but I'm not sure any of them are the future.

Either way, this pick may be the most important piece in the Celtics' rebuilding model and could give them another cornerstone to build upon along with Marcus Smart.