Three years after strongly considering signing with his hometown Dallas Mavericks as an unrestricted free agent, Deron Williams is now apparently headed to Dallas after the Brooklyn Nets reportedly agreed to buy Williams out of the remaining two years of what has proven a disastrous contract.
Let's take a look at what a Williams buyout and him signing as a free agent with the Mavericks would mean to the two franchises.
Nets dodge the luxury tax
Brooklyn's motivation here is obvious. By getting Williams to agree to take $25.5 million of the $43.3 million remaining on his contract in a buyout (as reported by ESPN's Mike Mazzeo) and stretching that amount over the next five years, the Nets will avoid paying the harsh repeater luxury tax they were staring in the face.
By my calculations, if Brooklyn waived the non-guaranteed and partially guaranteed players necessary to get its roster down to 15 players, the team would have paid $37.5 million in luxury tax this season. Instead, with Williams counting just $5.5 million against the cap, the Nets are now safely under the tax line. In addition to the immediate savings, Brooklyn now is in less danger of paying the repeater tax in future seasons if the team's payroll grows after potentially going under the cap next summer.
The Nets will suffer in a couple of ways. First, they're a weaker team on the court next season. As unproductive as Williams has been relative to his salary and his past performance, he was still Brooklyn's best point guard. Last season, the Nets slightly outscored opponents with Williams on the court (plus-0.1 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats) and were soundly outscored with backup Jarrett Jack at the point (minus-6.8 points per 100 possessions).
Brooklyn now has Steve Blake, Jack and Shane Larkin at point guard, a group that collectively projects weaker than replacement level in 2015-16. While Larkin has some potential, the 35-year-old Blake probably will be the best of the group in 2015-16. In all likelihood, the Nets will have some of the league's weakest point guard play.
The long-term cost to Brooklyn is having to keep a portion of Williams' salary on the cap through 2020 -- longer than any player contract the Nets currently have on the books. That probably will work out because Brooklyn's cap space is most important next summer, when Joe Johnson's massive contract expires. And for 2016-17, the Nets will pay Williams less than had they stretched the final year of his contract next summer without a buyout.
At this point, Brooklyn should have enough money to make a max offer to a player with 7-9 years of experience, like say former MVP Kevin Durant. If the Nets can strike in free agency next summer, they'll probably remain over the cap for the foreseeable future, minimizing the importance of Williams' ongoing cap hit. As a result, despite the impact on the team's 2015-16 record, Brooklyn is a big winner by buying out Williams.
Mavericks find a point guard ... cheap
Once Williams clears waivers, according to ESPN's Marc Stein he plans to sign a two-year, $10 million deal with Dallas. That represents excellent value for the Mavericks. I have Williams projected as worth about $32 million over that span -- less than he was due from the Nets, but far more than he'll make in Dallas.
In particular, because Brooklyn has played so much better with him than its backup point guards, Williams' rating remains strong in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). He actually ranked 15th among point guards last season with a plus-1.9 RPM and is still projected substantially above average next season.
The biggest key for Williams with the Mavericks will be his ability to bounce back as a finisher. He shot just 45.7 percent within three feet last season, per Basketball-Reference.com, as compared to 64.6 percent the season before. Despite injuries robbing him of much of his explosiveness, Williams had remained a good finisher when he did get to the basket until last season.
Williams should enjoy much better spacing than recent Brooklyn teams offered. If Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons are effective as shooters coming back from their surgeries, the Mavericks will have excellent shooting on the wing to go along with Dirk Nowitzki as a partner for Williams in the pick-and-pop.
Dallas still has work to do filling out its bench and could use a center who's effective as a finisher in the pick-and-roll to pair with newly acquired Zaza Pachulia, but this is shaping up as a team capable of competing for a playoff spot. That looked unlikely when DeAndre Jordan changed his mind about signing with the Mavericks earlier this week.
Whether that's a good thing depends on the team's goals. Dallas is now in danger of a worst-case scenario of being too bad to make the postseason and too good to keep its pick, which goes to the Boston Celtics from the Rajon Rondo trade if it falls outside the top seven.
The Celtics have an interesting perspective on this trade. They actually have draft picks coming from both teams. Since the Nets' pick is unprotected, it's probably better for Boston if Brooklyn gets worse and the Mavericks get better. So consider the Celtics a winner, too.