To help readers get to know top NBA free agents, Insider offers a 360-degree look at some of the top free agents according to Amin Elhassan's Free Agent Big Board 2.0 in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring perspectives from three experts: Bradford Doolittle (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Tom Penn (NBA front office). Here's our look at LaMarcus Aldridge.
LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | Portland Trail Blazers | UFA
Experience: 30 years old; nine years played
WARP projection: 8.3 (14th among free agents)
Strengths: Inside-outside scoring, low turnovers, offensive volume
Weaknesses: Shot-blocking, playmaking, so-so efficiency
The analytics perspective
If you go strictly by metrics, Aldridge's reputation outstrips his actual production and impact. That's a mild criticism, though, as he's a bona fide All-Star no matter how you measure performance. The disconnect is this: Some view Aldridge as a true centerpiece player, meaning he can be the best player on a title contender. From a statistical standpoint, that's just not the case. His three-year WARP ratings have ranked in the 92nd to the 94th percentile for the past five years. Again, that's All-Star stuff, but the highest he has ever finished in a single season is 15th. Last season was his second-best ranking, and he was at No. 31.
The ding on Aldridge's dossier is that metrics love efficiency, and his has been so-so in that regard, which marks him as a volume scorer. The past two years, he has used about 30 percent of Portland possessions when he's on the floor. His true shooting percentages have been below league average in each of the past three seasons. Still, Aldridge has arguably become a better shooter every season of his career. In 2014-15, he not only introduced occasional 3s to his arsenal more than before, but he also shot a career-best 84.5 percent from the foul line. It's the development of the skill part of his game that is so intriguing. While his passing skills (i.e., assist rate) aren't great, his turnover rates are almost absurdly low.
The bottom line is that Aldridge's ability to operate from a variety of scoring spots and to get shots up without turning the ball over is a combination of skills that you can build an offense around. That's why his offensive RPMs have been plus-1.5 or better for five straight years. Last year, it was plus-3.76. His defense is below average, and his rim protection is worse than that, but it's difficult to find offense-oriented big men this accomplished.
The scouting perspective
Probably the best offensive big man on the market, Aldridge is the player most expected to switch addresses this offseason. With his excellent height and length and unnaturally high release point, Aldridge has a nearly uncontestable shot. When he first came in the league, Aldridge had a pretty nice rolling hook across the lane from the blocks, but as his jumper has improved, he has resorted more to turnarounds and face-ups. Despite a reliable jumper that could probably take him out to 3-point range, Aldridge does have somewhat of an infatuation with the midpost area, taking a significant number of his shots from midrange.
Defensively, despite his great height and length, he's a below average player, and thrives more playing alongside a defensive subsidizer. It's no coincidence that his best rebounding and defending seasons have come in the past two years with Robin Lopez as his "enforcer," as it frees him from the responsibility of being a rim protector. In pick-and-roll coverage, Aldridge is more comfortable hanging back and letting the action come to him, rather than aggressively hedging, trapping or switching at the point of contact.
For that reason, it makes sense that San Antonio is a heavily rumored destination for him. It's a place where his offensive talents would be exploited, and his defensive weaknesses would be hidden.
The front-office perspective
I don't know why he'd leave Portland, meaning I don't know specifically what triggered his departure. But I think this is an opportunity to have a guilt-free chance to pick wherever you want to go, with whomever you want to be with.
From my understanding of his injuries, there's nothing that would be a red flag. You certainly would consult with your physicians on this, but even his heart issue is one that I believe is fixed. And he's a thoroughbred. He plays every night, he plays big minutes, he runs like a gazelle, and his game is built to last. It's part power game, part jump shooting. I was there his entire rookie contract and then we extended him on his current contract. We traded Zach Randolph so that we could free up all the playing time for him to grow, and I was very involved in the rookie extension.
We considered him at the time one of the best young big men in the league and a blossoming big man. He has hit all of that potential and actually exceeded that, in my opinion. What's different now is that he has proven he can hit big shots under pressure and he can hit game-winners. And it's difficult for a 4-man to be able to carry a game down the stretch -- normally guards do that -- but there are periods where he's flat-out delivered under pressure.
He also has grown into his body and become more physical, more comfortable banging around down there. That has made him a much better player. He's in his prime now, square in the middle of it, and should have zero hesitancy about being Tim Duncan's heir apparent. The Spurs typically have not chased free agents because their greatness has been maintained from within, but their greatness is graduating, so they need to replace. And they can't replace through the draft because they didn't have a high enough pick. So the way they've sequenced the contracts, they have an opportunity to replace via free agency.
I think he's going to like what he hears from different places, because he has never really had the opportunity to be recruited. There's the opportunity to go home to Dallas, or to go close to home in San Antonio and be a pillar for the next generation of the Spurs. That would be very appealing. He's built a giant home in Dallas -- that is where he's going to end up being post-career, I believe. So it would be the appeal of being back home. And the Phoenix Suns are pushing hard by signing Tyson Chandler to entice him to view them as a contender. However, I would bet on Texas here, and I would probably bet on San Antonio over Dallas, but that's a tough one to call.
-- Tom Penn