This is the 10th year I've selected All-Defensive teams, and in that span, I've seen the available data grow immensely. When I started, we had the limited defensive statistics in the box score (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds and fouls), along with the difference in team defensive performance with a player on and off the court ... and that was about it.
The advent of SportVU camera tracking, along with the NBA's commitment to maintaining a robust statistical presence on its website, has dramatically increased the data available to us.
We now know the percentage opponents shoot against each defender at the rim, and overall. ESPN's real plus-minus has improved on-off data by more reliably adjusting for the quality of teammates and opponents. And if I want to know how Pau Gasol's presence changes the Chicago Bulls' transition defense, it's only a few clicks away.
All that data has created a new problem: managing it and separating the useful information from the noise. Our ability to more precisely measure individual skills like rim protection is useful, but only to the extent that we know how important these skills are. Picking the best defenders is still more art than science, and relies on scouting as much as data analysis.
Fortunately, when it comes to choosing the very best defender, Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green has made things easy. No matter the statistic -- defensive RPM, opponent shooting percentages, box-score stats, team defensive rating -- Green has excelled. That's why he leads my 10th annual All-Defensive teams as Defensive Player of the Year.
Point guard
First team: Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Second team: John Wall, Washington Wizards
Honorable mentions: Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns; Nick Calathes, Memphis Grizzlies; Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors
Even with additional data, point guard defense remains toughest to quantify because of the depth at the position and rules that make it difficult for any defender to stop point guards one-on-one. The best option defensively is often to use a bigger wing to defend point guards. That's something the Clippers rarely do because Paul, despite his 6-foot stature, makes bigger opponents work on a nightly basis. He's just outside the top 10 in steal rate, and while his impact on field goal percentages wasn't as strong as a research team led by Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry found using 2013-14 data, per Synergy Sports he's allowed just .58 points per isolation play, fourth-best in the NBA (minimum 50 attempts).
Quietly, the Wizards have been a top-five defense this season, and Wall is a major factor as the only player who merited a spot on my All-D teams. His defensive RPM (plus-1.9 points per 100 possessions) ranks third among point guards. While Washington has struggled to defend pick-and-rolls this season, the problem has been exacerbated with Wall on the bench; the Wizards allow 6.1 more points per 100 possessions when he leaves the game, per NBA.com/Stats.
The athletic Bledsoe can lose focus at times on D, but his defensive RPM (plus-2.1) ranks second at the position behind usual favorite Ricky Rubio, who played just 22 games due to injuries. Calathes has been a defensive terror since winning a rotation spot midseason; his steal rate (3.9 percent) ranks second among players with 500 minutes played and the Grizzlies' D is 9.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. Livingston's size means the Warriors are effectively putting a wing on opposing point guards when he's in the game, and it's ideal for Golden State's switching defense.
Shooting guard
First team: Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
Second team: Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Honorable mentions: Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs; Elijah Millsap, Utah Jazz; Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder
A perennial All-D fixture, Allen leads all guards in defensive RPM (plus-4.8) by a wide margin. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, the Grizzlies defend much better with Allen in the game, allowing a 94.9 defensive rating -- tied for best in the NBA, per NBA.com/Stats. According to SportVU player tracking as compiled by Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus, opponents shoot 5.7 percent worse than expected based on location and his distance from them, second among all guards. And Allen is also the league's best thief, coming up with steals on 4.0 percent of opponent plays.
Middleton's strong defensive RPM (plus-4.0, second to Allen among guards) is the source of some controversy. During a panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey described Middleton as "more of an offensive player," and RPM rated Middleton as a poor defender a year ago. If this is a statistical effect, however, it's one that also extends to player-tracking stats. Opponents have shot 4.1 percent worse than expected against Middleton, and he excels defending a variety of play types, as charted by Synergy Sports. Among players who have defended at least 100 isolation plays, Middleton's points per play allowed is second in the league behind Draymond Green. With a wingspan measured at 6-foot-10.75 at the NBA draft combine, Middleton has always had the tools to become a plus defender, and he's become a crucial part of the league's third-best defense.
Having two quality wing defenders is a luxury for Gregg Popovich, who likes to deploy Green -- the league's best shot-blocking guard -- against point guards. Millsap reached the NBA at age 27 as something of a poor man's Allen: a strong, physical wing who wills his way into good defense and also has a high steal rate. Roberson has held opponents farther below their expected shooting percentages more than any perimeter player, according to SportVU data, stepping right into the role of Thunder stopper vacated by Thabo Sefolosha.
Small forward
First team: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Second team: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Hornets
Honorable mentions: Al-Farouq Aminu, Dallas Mavericks; Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors; Thabo Sefolosha, Atlanta Hawks
Since returning from a hand ligament injury in January, Leonard has been a defensive terror, leading the Spurs -- an average defense in his absence -- all the way up to second in defensive rating. His career-high steal percentage (3.8) ranks third in the league, and opponents can't even dribble in front of him without risking a turnover. Leonard's defensive RPM (plus-5.2) actually ranks second in the NBA, and he'd have a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year if not for the time he's missed.
When Kidd-Gilchrist has been on the floor, the Hornets have defended as well as anyone in the NBA. Put him on the bench and their defensive rating balloons by 7.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats. While Kidd-Gilchrist generates fewer steals, like Leonard he is the ideal athlete for the modern game, with the size and strength to defend bigger forwards and the quickness to match up on the perimeter.
The Mavericks have unleashed Aminu off the bench as a rebounding shot-blocking force, and are at their best defensively when he plays, allowing 4.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. Iguodala isn't quite the defender he was in his prime, but remains overqualified for a sixth man and a major reason Golden State's defense barely skips a beat when the second unit is in the game. The addition of Sefolosha has quietly propelled the Hawks this season; they give up 7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when he plays.
Power forward
First team: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Second team: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Honorable mentions: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans; Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz; Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
As an undersized power forward listed at 6-7, 230 pounds, Green doesn't look like the traditional Defensive Player of the Year. Perhaps he's the new archetype for the modern game. Green is athletic enough to capably defend guards after one of the Warriors' frequent switches, but also powerful enough to defend the post. Bigger opponents think they have an edge on him, but they average just .75 points per post-up according to Synergy Sports, 14th best in the league (minimum 100 post-ups). Green's even an effective rim protector, supplying blocks and steals (he's one of seven players in the league with a steal rate better than 2.0 percent and a block rate better than 3.0 percent, with a minimum of 1,000 minutes played). And he's been durable, starting 75 games and logging 30-plus minutes a night. As a result, Green leads the NBA in defensive wins above replacement, derived from RPM, and his edge over Leonard is larger than the gap between Leonard and the player in 11th place:
While he's never won Defensive Player of the Year, and likely won't this season, Duncan has been a part of nine of the 10 All-Defensive teams I've chosen. At nearly 39 years old, he's still an important part of one of the NBA's best defenses, and one of the league's top defenders in terms of RPM.
Soon, Davis could be a Duncan-like fixture on All-D. Already, he's an elite shot defender. Opponents made 8.2 percent fewer attempts against him than expected, best of anyone in the league, per SportVU tracking. With improvement against the pick-and-roll, Davis will go from good to great defensively. As a center, Favors was only average defensively, but a move to power forward has made him an asset. He's a fine shot-blocker with the agility to defend on the perimeter. Ibaka has the fourth-strongest impact on opponent shooting, but the time he spends on the perimeter limits the number of shots he can contest.
Center
First team: Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors
Second team: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Honorable mentions: DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings; DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers; Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
Green might be Defensive Player of the Year -- and also the second-best defender in his own frontcourt. That's how good Bogut has been anchoring the paint. Opponents have made 7.7 percent fewer shots than expected against him, second to Davis, and the Warriors' defensive rating with Bogut on the court (94.9 points per 100 possessions) is tied with Tony Allen for lowest in the league. As a result, Bogut has the league's best defensive RPM. Alas, his playing time limits his value. Every non-lockout DPOY has played at least 2,200 minutes and Bogut has logged fewer than 1,500 -- nearly a thousand fewer than Green.
Something similar is true of Gobert, who didn't emerge as the Jazz's starting center for good until after the trade deadline. Since then, Utah has the league's best defensive rating by a wide margin. That can't solely be credited to Gobert -- the Jazz's defensive rating is also best without him on the floor -- but he's a factor as big as his 7-foot-8.5 wingspan. Opponents are making just 39.2 percent of their attempts at the rim with Gobert as a defender, per NBA.com/Stats, the league's lowest mark. Uniquely for such a good shot-blocker, Gobert is also an elite defensive rebounder, and he rarely fouls -- just 3.0 per 36 minutes.
If there were an award for most improved defender, Cousins would win it. A liability when he entered the league, he's become a versatile rim protector, though foul trouble (his 4.1 fouls per game lead the league) remains an issue. In a way, the Defensive Player of the Year campaign for Jordan has hurt him by forcing people like Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh to point out how flimsy his case is statistically; otherwise, we could enjoy Jordan's progress into a good defender capable of making multiple efforts. As I noted in last week's Rookie of the Year breakdown, Noel has the chance to join Hakeem Olajuwon with his combination of steal and block percentages. He's been the best defender in a rookie class that has proved to be advanced on defense.
News and notes
• More bad news on the injury front for the Houston Rockets, who will lose Donatas Motiejunas for the remainder of the season and the playoffs with a back injury, a source told ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins. Motiejunas was the biggest reason the Rockets were able to survive injuries to starting big men Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones and stay in the mix for the second seed in the Western Conference. One of the league's most improved players, Motiejunas developed into a reliable post scorer and defensive anchor as a starter.
The good news for Houston is Howard and Jones are healthy for the stretch run and playoffs, with Josh Smith available as a backup big man. Motiejunas will still be missed as a complement and insurance policy. Besides Howard, he's the only rotation player taller than 6-foot-9. (Clint Capela, 6-11, is the other Rockets player with center height.)
There's also the matter of free throw shooting. Howard, at 52.76 percent from the foul line, is now the best-shooting Houston center. Smith has shot 52.5 percent with the Rockets, Joey Dorsey 26.6 percent and Capela is 0-for-15 from the charity stripe. Motiejunas, a 60.2 percent free throw shooter, was at least safe from intentional fouls.
• A little more than six weeks after his last game, Derrick Rose returned from arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday as the Chicago Bulls lost to the Orlando Magic 105-103. Playing 19 minutes -- he was limited to 20 -- Rose showed some rust, missing five of his six attempts from 3-point range and turning the ball over four times.
Having already hit his minutes limit, Rose wasn't on the court for the fourth quarter, when the Bulls blew a 94-89 lead with four minutes to play. The loss allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to clinch the Central Division title and pushed Chicago into a tie with the Toronto Raptors for the Eastern Conference's third-best record. That's important because Toronto automatically wins a tie between the two teams as Atlantic Division champions.
• The New Orleans playoff push lost some steam Wednesday night. Twenty-four hours after beating the Golden State Warriors at home to move past the Oklahoma City Thunder and into eighth in the Western Conference, the Pelicans lost 110-74 to the Grizzlies in Memphis, moving them even with the Thunder in the standings.
Because New Orleans holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Pelicans can still make the playoffs by winning out, no matter what Oklahoma City does. The Thunder need a better record over the final four games to beat out New Orleans, an outcome that's realistic given the two teams' schedules. The Pelicans still have two playoff opponents upcoming (at Houston and home vs. San Antonio, though the latter game could be meaningless in terms of playoff seeding) while Oklahoma City faces just one above-.500 team (home vs. Portland). Still, with one week left in the regular season, the eighth seed remains up for grabs.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.