Draft review: Westbrook vs. Curry

In a special edition of Ford & Pelton's NBA draft coverage, Insider's draft analysts look back on Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook as prospects and compare and contrast their paths to NBA stardom at the point guard position.

Kevin Pelton: Besides being two of the NBA's best point guards, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook are two of the biggest draft overachievers in recent memory. While both players went in the high lottery, there were question marks about both of them coming out of college. Let's start with Westbrook, who was competing with Jerryd Bayless to be the second point guard drafted after Derrick Rose in 2008.

Question: How did Russell Westbrook rate as a draft prospect?

Chad Ford: I went back to look at my draft grades for the 2008 NBA draft. The Oklahoma City Thunder were still the Sonics back then (sorry to bring up a sore subject, Kevin), and here's what I wrote about them selecting Westbrook with the fourth pick in the draft:

"A lot of people seem shocked the Sonics went with Westbrook this high, but I'm not. His combination of length, athleticism, motor and defensive toughness makes him an ideal fit with Kevin Durant. Westbrook needs to improve offensively, but at worst he is a defensive stopper. And he could become one of the best point guards in the league down the road. I had him rated as the fourth-best prospect in the draft, right behind Rose, [Michael] Beasley and [O.J.] Mayo."

A couple of things stand out. Westbrook was obviously better than Beasley and Mayo. Plus, no one was sold on what sort of offensive player he'd be. Scouts knew he was an elite athlete and a terrific defender, but teams really had to project what he'd become offensively. Westbrook didn't shoot the ball well and it wasn't totally clear from his two seasons at UCLA playing alongside Darren Collison that he was really a point guard. He was all about upside: elite size, athleticism and motor for a point guard. In Westbrook's case, he reached his ceiling and then some.

Pelton: I can admit I was pulling for the then-Sonics to take Bayless. Whoopsie. Bayless rated ahead of Westbrook in a proto-version of my draft projections and still does in the more advanced version I use now. Westbrook's projection ranks just 20th overall from that draft. The funny thing is that Westbrook didn't project to be a high-usage NBA player, and now he's threatening the single-season record for usage. There were some good signs in terms of similarity, however. Westbrook scored as most similar to Rose, so it shouldn't have been completely surprising that they put up similar NBA numbers before Rose's ACL injury knocked him off course.

Let's move on to Curry. What did your projection look like for him in the 2009 draft?

Question: How did Stephen Curry rate as a draft prospect?

Ford: Again, on to the 2009 NBA draft grades. There were actually strong rumblings that the Golden State Warriors were seriously considering trading the rights to Curry to the Phoenix Suns for Amar'e Stoudemire, so they got an "incomplete." But here's what I wrote:

"I think it's too early to know what grade to give Golden State. I love Curry, and if the Warriors keep him, I think he's a great addition to Monta Ellis in the backcourt. Neither guy is a pure point guard, but Curry's shooting should complement Ellis' slashing nicely. But if the Warriors turn around and ship Curry, Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli and Andris Biedrins to Phoenix for Amar'e Stoudemire in July, as rumored, I'm not going feel as good about it. Stoudemire is great, but that's a lot to give up for one guy, especially if he might be just a one-year rental in Oakland."

Everyone thought Curry was the best shooter in the draft. No one was sold that he was a pure point guard (despite playing the point his last season at Davidson), and there were major questions about his lack of elite athleticism and ability to defend. But at the time, I did think he was more valuable than Stoudemire, who, despite struggling with some injuries in 2008-09, was still in his prime.

Pelton: The way I did projections in 2009, Curry actually rated sixth among a deep group of point guards. When I tweaked the system after starting at ESPN, Curry's success was a big reason the numbers suggested reducing the impact of strength of schedule. Incorporating multiple seasons of data also helped Curry, because he was so much more efficient as a sophomore facing fewer double-teams. As a result, Curry retroactively improved to fourth in the 2009 draft behind Blake Griffin, James Harden ... and DeJuan Blair. I'm still holding out hope for you, DeJuan!

Question: Which of the two players was the better prospect?

Ford: Such a tough call. They were essentially ranked in the same place during their respective drafts. However, NBA scouts tend to favor players with elite physical abilities over players with elite skill sets at the end of the day. Ideally, you have both. But Westbrook was the more raw athlete while Curry was the skilled player, and I think had they been in the same draft, Westbrook would've nudged Curry.

Pelton: By my metrics, it's Curry, and not all that close after the adjustments I mentioned. Curry ended up with a 3.9 WARP projection -- one of the 10 best in my database, while Westbrook's 1.1 WARP projection is relatively pedestrian.

Question: Which of the two players has improved more since entering the NBA?

Ford: That's a little easier. While Westbrook was an elite athlete, his skill set was raw. He's obviously made major strides as an offensive player. Curry has improved, too. I've been so impressed with how he sees the game. But, and I think the numbers will bear this out, Westbrook has the advantage here.

Pelton: Yep. Both guys have made huge strides. However, as shown in the chart below, Curry came into the league as more of a finished product, while Westbrook rated below average as a rookie.

Westbrook caught up in Year 2 (in actuality, his second season was Curry's rookie season) and they were similar season by season in terms of their winning percentage (the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player metric) until Curry surged ahead this season.