If the NBA has become a point guard's league, then most certainly the Western Conference has become a showcase for the little guys who put up such big numbers (click here to check out all of our content debating Stephen Curry vs. Russell Westbrook).
However, just as the West is packed with title contenders clustered together in a constantly changing race to the top, slotting the circuit's lead guards into a coherent pecking order is no easy task. With our recent debate-fest centering around Westbrook and Curry, many have asked what about Chris Paul and where does he fit in among the West's point guard elite?
Let's start with some top-down measurements comparing point guards between the two conferences.
The West's total of 137 WARP from point guards is the highest positional total of any in either conference. The portion of total WARP for each circuit that is accounted for by point guards is similar -- 27 percent for the West to 26 percent for the East -- so by that measure the West is slightly more dominated by lead guards.
This gap might or might not be larger depending on what you want to do with Goran Dragic, who spent much of the season playing off the ball in Phoenix, but is now the unquestioned lead guard in Miami. Since we're taking snapshots here, Dragic is considered a point guard for Miami in the East in these numbers, but bear in mind his situation when considering the disparities outlined here.
The final line of the table is the most striking. If you add up the WARP totals just for the top 10 point guards in each conference, the West trounces the East 113.2 to 80.9, a difference of 32.3. That means two things. First, if you look only at the point guards beyond the top 10, the East has actually had more production. But the star point guards in the West are so dominant that they alone account for about 41 percent of the WARP gap between the conferences.
In other words, if the East's star point guards measured up to their Western counterparts, or the talent distribution of these players was more balanced between circuits, we wouldn't spend nearly so much time worrying about the overall dominance of the West.
So if you wonder why we'd go to the trouble to rank the point guards from just one conference, that's why. There are certainly plenty of star non-point guards in the league, though it's not difficult to argue that some of those players -- think LeBron James and James Harden -- do a lot of things that point guards do. Still, in many respects it's the star point guards in the West who dominate our narratives about this season in the NBA.
We'll let these rankings shed some light on where CP3 stands according to the numbers.
Note: For a visual look at all the West's great point guards, click here.
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
BASE%: .753 | RPM: 7.98 | RATING: 8.46
No one can argue with what Curry does on offense. Not only does he create at a high rate (29 percent usage and 10.5 percent assist rate), but he's super efficient. His .627 true shooting percentage dwarfs the rest of the top 10. He sweeps the three traditional percentage categories, beating these guys in 2-point shooting, 3-point shooting and free throw shooting rate. What people still miss about Curry is his defense, even though he plays heavy minutes for the NBA's top defensive team. He has the best defensive rating, defensive RPM and steal rate of any player in these rankings.
2. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
BASE%: .718 | RPM: 7.86 | RATING: 7.66
Do we take Paul for granted? His assist rate is the highest of our elite point guards, and his turnover rate is the second lowest. If not for Curry, he'd be the most efficient scorer as well, with a .582 true shooting percentage on a 23.9 usage rate. He's third in rebound rate as well, part of a defensive profile that is slipping but remains solid.
3. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
BASE%: .750 | RPM: 6.24 | RATING: 7.53
No player has more of an effect on team performance than Westbrook, who sports a historic combination of a 38 percent usage rate and an 11.1 percent assist rate. He's got the third-highest turnover rate among our elite 10, and is just sixth in true shooting percentage. His defensive RPM is negative despite lofty steal and rebound numbers, which comes back to what we've written about Westbrook during his recent surge of triple-doubles: He can do anything, and maybe he should do everything.
4. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
BASE%: .598 | RPM: 4.71 | RATING: 3.91
Lillard is an efficient scorer (.562 true shooting percentage) and an improving defender. His standout trait among his peers is in taking care of the ball: His turnover rate of 12.4 percent is easily the lowest among the top 10.
5. Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns
BASE%: .584 | RPM: 4.66 | RATING: 3.79
Bledsoe is a little underrated for his combination of efficient scoring (.567 true shooting percentage) and fine defense. He's at plus-1.38 in defensive RPM and is one of two of our top 10 with a block rate over 1 percent. The black mark on his profile currently is a high turnover rate (12.6 percent) that explains his semi-disappointing offensive RPM of plus-1.69.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
BASE%: .598 | RPM: 3.98 | RATING: 3.54
What's holding Conley back is a defensive RPM (minus-0.68) that suggests he might be a little overrated on that end. He's also hurt to an extent by having to share playmaking responsibilities with center Marc Gasol.
7. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
BASE%: .518 | RPM: 5.74 | RATING: 3.15
Rubio's a passing wizard who also is just behind Curry for top defensive RPM in this group, and his defensive rebound rate is even higher than Westbrook's. Unfortunately, he can't shoot (.452 true shooting percentage) and turns the ball over too much (20.4 percent). Hopefully, Rubio's efficiency will climb as the young talent around him matures.
8. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
BASE%: .558 | RPM: 4.20 | RATING: 3.01
Holiday isn't an efficient scorer, but he's developed into a solid two-way point guard despite his injury woes. He's got a block rate higher than Bledsoe's, a positive defensive RPM, and on the other end a solid combination of assist and turnover rate.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
BASE%: .552 | RPM: 2.58 | RATING: 2.11
Lawson's playmaking has soared to a new level this season, but his defensive RPM (minus-2.45) is by far the weakest of this group.
10. Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings
BASE%: .527 | RPM: 1.78 | RATING: 1.32
Collison has improved his scoring efficiency and defense, but his playmaking holds him back. He's got the lowest assist rate of the top 10, and the third-highest turnover rate.
Notable absences: Houston's Patrick Beverley just missed, ranking No. 11. He's top 10 in RPM, but his production baseline leaves him a little below replacement value. Two big-name players missing because of age and/or injury: San Antonio's Tony Parker and Dallas' Rajon Rondo, who are both well in the red in RPM. Finally, Phoenix's Brandon Knight inherits Dragic's position of not getting to handle the ball as much now that he's playing next to Bledsoe, but his story here is that defensive shortcomings leave him short in the RPM department.
Methodology
There's a lot to consider when creating a ranking like this. We could just use WARP, but doing so merely suggests which players have enjoyed the best season.
It's a fine distinction, but it's not quite the same as declaring who is better than whom. We're taking a snapshot, so we don't necessarily want to go a forward-projecting route such as is used in our offseason positional rankings. However, the baselines in offensive and defensive ratings that go into the projections are just what we're looking for -- they rate each player on multiseason data, with recent performance getting greater consideration. We're just leaving out the final step in a projection of adding in aging and career-pattern factors.
We also don't want to forget about RPM. Our baselines give us a great proxy for production, but RPM gives us a context for how that production impacts the lineups in which each player appears. We'll use the multiseason version of RPM to match up with winning percentage. The final metric will be this: (RPM + (offensive rating minus defensive rating)) / 2. The final number will look like plus-minus.