Editor's Note: This piece has been updated to reflect the trades made before the 3 PM ET NBA Trade Deadline.
It's trade deadline week. There are no games to watch. After All-Star weekend, you're itching for trade chatter, a hint of transactional rumor, anything.
Well, we're going to do something a little different today. At the ceremonial halfway point of the season, let's take a look at the teams that have the best chance to surprise in the second half.
Examining the remaining schedule and changing roster dynamics, here are three teams that I expect to make a second-half surge.
Sacramento Kings
Record: 18-34 (25th in NBA)
George Karl takes over for Ty Corbin, who won just seven of 28 games after taking over for Mike Malone, who won 11 of 24 games. The downward trend doesn't look good for Karl, but there is plenty of reason to believe he can turn it around.
For one, Karl has been the architect of one the best up-tempo offenses in recent history as the coach of the 2012-13 Denver Nuggets. Though they benefited from the oxygen-bankrupt altitude in Denver, Karl's Nuggets scored a league-leading 2,041 points in transition in 2012-13, according to Synergy Sports tracking. That's 269 more points than the next-highest team in 2012-13 and a higher total than any other team we've seen in in the last six seasons.
This is the style of play that technocrat owner Vivek Ranadive wants, and Karl knows how to make it work. It's not as simple as a coach screaming, "go play fast!" and expecting some "Seven Seconds or Less" magic. Corbin's track record of sluggish teams suggests he wasn't cut out for that.
Personnel matters here, too. The team's backup point guard, Ramon Sessions, has been one of the worst up-tempo floor generals in the NBA, but Karl's 2012-13 Nuggets had a 36-year-old Andre Miller running the second unit, so it's not like they need a speedy youngster to blitz the defense. The Kings made that upgrade at the deadline by bringing back Miller.
DeMarcus Cousins could benefit the most. When Karl took over for Denver interim coach Michael Cooper in 2004-05, the Nuggets were 17-25 and the team's young star Carmelo Anthony was averaging 20.2 points per game on a paltry 39 percent shooting from the floor. The Nuggets went 32-8 the rest of the way, and Anthony cleaned up his act and shot 47.3 percent en route to a more efficient 21.3 points per game. Cousins could sharpen his game as well under Karl.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 28-25 (ninth in West)
When diagnosing the Thunder's underwhelming season, don't forget to include the following: The Thunder's star trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka has been on the floor together for less than a quarter of the team's overall minutes. Just 23 percent. Said another way, 77 percent of the Thunder's season has been played without Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka sharing the court.
That's the No. 1 reason why OKC has struggled this season. It's not because you think Westbrook and Durant don't get along. It's not because you think Dion Waiters is team kryptonite. It's not because you think Kendrick Perkins is still getting minutes. It's all about health.
In their Finals run in 2012, Durant-Westbrook-Ibaka played more than half the team's minutes in both the regular season and the postseason. This season, that percentage has been sliced in half. And then some.
If those three are healthy down the stretch, look out. Then the Thunder traded point guard Reggie Jackson and got a boatload of useful players. This season, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 10.6 points every 100 possessions with that trio on the floor. In 2012, when adding James Harden to the mix, they outscored opponents by 11.7 points every 100 possessions. Almost no difference. That's the type of dominance we're seeing from the Thunder when they have their stars in uniform. On top of that, OKC has the softest remaining schedule of any Western Conference team in the playoff picture, according to ESPN's sophisticated BPI model that factors in strength of opponent, location, distance traveled and rest. Don't be surprised if OKC goes on an absolute tear.
Miami Heat
Record: 22-30 (eighth in East)
Speaking of strength of schedule, take a look at the Heat's slate going forward. Just 13 of their next 30 games are on the road. Of those 13, just five are against teams currently in a playoff spot. (New Orleans and Oklahoma City make it seven if you want.) No more games against Golden State, Memphis, Houston and Dallas. And four of their six games against Chicago and Cleveland are already behind them.
Then on Thursday, the Heat made a huge trade to acquire point guard Goran Dragicfrom the Phoenix Suns for two first-round picks.
Bottle it all up and you'll find the Heat have the softest remaining schedule in the NBA, according to ESPN's BPI model. By a mile. After adjusting for a variety of factors, the average Heat opponent has a .449 win percentage the rest of the way while the next-easiest slate sits at .463 (Chicago). The toughest games are in Miami's rearview mirror.
Softest Remaining SOS
Considering the Heat are eight games under .500, they need all the help they can get to salvage their injury-riddled season. With Dwyane Wade expected to return soon from a hamstring injury, the Heat will have him, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside on the floor together for the first time since January. In fact, they have started together just twice all season.
The Heat need point guard help, but the asset cupboard is bare outside of 36-year-old Chris Andersen. Even if they don't make a move, the imminent addition of Wade combined with a cupcake schedule means better days are probably ahead.
News and notes
• Goran Dragic is probably the biggest name being floated around at the trade deadline. The Phoenix Suns are saying all the right things about their preference to keep him, but Dragic's camp announced Tuesday that he will not re-sign with Phoenix, effectively forcing the team to trade him now. He was a member of the All-NBA third team last season and is an unrestricted free agent this summer. If they don't move him, he could leave the Suns empty-handed this summer.
Dragic has every reason to feel slighted. He was one of the NBA's best point guards last season, and they made him split time with two other point guards after inking both Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe to long-term deals. How much has Dragic sacrificed in the process? Last season, he possessed the ball 6.4 minutes per game, according to SportVU data. This season? Just 3.9 minutes -- a 40 percent drop.
• If you need any more hard evidence that 3-pointers are taking over the NBA: This year's All-Star Game saw a record-breaking 48 made 3-pointers. The previous record? Try 30. Set last season. Ten years ago, there were 15 made 3s.
• The average buyout signing doesn't make much of a dent in the grand scheme of things. But recent championship teams featured a key player who was signed off waivers midseason: Boris Diaw, waived by Charlotte in 2012 and signed by San Antonio days later; Chris Andersen, waived by amnesty rule by Denver in July 2012 and signed by Miami in January 2013; Peja Stojakovic, waived by Toronto in January 2011 and signed a few days later by Dallas; and P.J. Brown, signed off waivers by Boston in February 2008 and helped topple the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals.
Not saying Stoudemire will help raise a Larry O'Brien trophy come June, but these signings can move the needle in the right situation. Stoudemire, who put up a 19.7 PER this season in New York, has been one of the most productive big men off the bench this season.
• Trivia time: It's trade deadline week, so when was the last time a team made a major deadline trade and won the title that same season?
Last week's trivia question/answer: Tyson Chandler has taken just 35 dribbles ahead of his 303 field goal attempts, the lowest ratio in the NBA (0.12).