The Bulls' Jimmy Butler has posted one of the most surprising breakout seasons in recent memory. Butler didn't exactly come from nowhere, not after playing more than 38 minutes per game last season and earning a spot on the NBA's All-Defensive second team. His penchant for defense and durability gave him a deserved reputation as one of the league's top role players. By making a giant leap on the offensive end, Butler has turned into much more, and he's done so at an age (25) that is advanced for a first-time superstar.
Let's break down Butler's amazing improvement, FAQ style.
What were the expectations for Butler entering the season?
Pretty good, because as mentioned, Butler hasn't exactly been a slouch the past two years. SCHOENE forecast Butler for 6.3 wins above replacement (WARP). Meanwhile, the RPM-based system I use in my positional rankings suggested a little more optimistic 8.3 WARP, putting him fourth among shooting guards. During his first three seasons, Butler posted winning percentages of .423, .518 and .509. His age is one of the more common ones for a player's peak season, so his baseline winning percent forecast was .526. His WARP total last season (5.1) put him in the 86th percentile of all players.
How far is he exceeding expectation?
Butler has already accumulated 6.4 WARP this season, besting his career high by 1.3 wins and counting. That total ranks eighth in the league and leads the Bulls. His winning percentage (.631) is more than 100 points better than his baseline forecast, though Pau Gasol's recent surge has given him a slightly better mark at .638 among the Bulls. Butler is on pace for 13.5 WARP, which would exceed his three-year total entering the season. If he reaches that mark, it would be an 8.48-win improvement. Only Utah's Rudy Gobert (8.54) is currently on pace for a bigger leap. Given Butler's elite RPM (plus-4.29), he is a solid candidate for the NBA's Most Improved Player award. (Back-pat alert: He was my pick before the season.
Is it unusual for a player to become elite this far into his career?
As mentioned, it's not unusual for a player to have his best season at age 25, but it is unusual for a player at that age to become elite for the first time. In fact, among those in their fourth year or later, Butler is the only player during the 3-point era to go from a non-star level of play established during multiple seasons (defined as two straight years of at least 3.0 WARP) to the league's top 10. The only comparable season in my database was the career season posted by Orlando's Darrell Armstrong at age 30 in 1998-99, a strike-shortened campaign.
How has Butler improved offensively?
Typically when players increase their usage rate, the increased responsibility comes with a decrease in efficiency. Not so in Butler's case.
Butler's previous usage rates are what marked him as a role player. In his first three seasons, Butler had usage rates of 15.0, 14.7 and 17.0 percent. Last season's figure ranked 60th of 98 qualifying wings. That's why when penning his profile before the season, I suggested that Butler was unlikely to ever generate a large volume of offense -- because he hadn't. His usage rate this season (21.6 percent) is now above average for an NBA rotation wing, and the increase is the 11th-largest among all players this season.
Butler has always been an accomplished player off the dribble, with high foul-drawing rates going all the way back to his rookie season. In 2013-14, Butler tried to fashion himself as a 3-and-D player, but shot just 28.3 percent from behind the arc. This season, Butler is getting just as many shots at the rim, but has been more selective behind the arc. Meanwhile he has added a more accurate pull-up midrange shot to complement his driving game, giving him a higher volume of looks from short midrange. He's done all this without sacrificing his elite foul-drawing ability. Quite the opposite -- Butler is averaging 7.1 free throw attempts per 36 minutes, an increase of 2.4 from last season. His rate of foul-drawing ranks fourth in the league, and he's the only non-center among the top six.
He also simply has become a better shooter. He has career-best percentages in every zone inside the arc, and his accuracy on 3s is up to 34.2 percent, near the league average. For the second straight season, Butler is hitting more than 40 percent on corner 3s. On top of all this, Butler has a career-best assist rate and a career-low turnover rate. His improvements have been across the board.
How does Butler compare with others at his position?
As mentioned, my preseason rankings gave Butler the fourth-best forecast among 2-guards. It should be noted that in this era of ball-dominant point guards, shooting guard production league-wide is lower than that of their backcourt counterparts. Thus Butler's forecast ranked just 40th overall in the league, making his eighth-place standing in WARP that much more impressive. Currently only Houston's James Harden ranks ahead of Butler among shooting guards. Harden's pace for 21.0 WARP ranks third in the league and puts him on the short list among MVP candidates. Butler ranks nine places ahead of ballyhooed Golden State guard Klay Thompson, the No. 3 player at the position. Thompson is on pace for 11.6 WARP. Harden, Butler and Thompson are the only shooting guards on pace to break double-digits in WARP.
Has the increased offensive responsibility affected Butler's defense?
Perhaps. Butler ranked seventh among shooting guards in defensive RPM last season (plus-1.23), but this season is just 30th (plus-0.04). The Bulls rank just 11th in defensive efficiency, their worst standing during coach Tom Thibodeau's tenure. According to basketball-reference.com, the Bulls have been 4.0 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Butler off the floor.
According to Synergy Sports Technologies, Butler ranked in the 74th percentile in points allowed per defensive play last season; this year he's in just the 46th percentile. Per the player tracking data at NBA.com, Butler's opponents have been 2.3 percent more accurate than normal with him as the primary defender. Last season, they were 3.1 percent worse. Short story: All objective evidence points to a decline for Butler on the defensive end. However, there is no real way to know whether the increased offensive responsibility is driving the defensive decline.
Is Butler now the best player on the Bulls?
As mentioned, Butler leads the Bulls in WARP, though Gasol has been slightly better on a per-possession basis. Butler leads the league in minutes, so his durability is certainly a mark in his favor. Also, his RPM is 3.24 points better than Gasol's and easily leads the Bulls.
Meanwhile, Derrick Rose is far below his pre-injury level of production, and Joakim Noah -- a first-team All-NBA player last season -- has suffered a down season in the wake of knee surgery. Given the nature of forecasts, it's doubtful that Butler's baseline after the season will be the highest on the team because there are too many categories that will be subject to statistical regression. Nevertheless, he's clearly Chicago's top player this season. More evidence of that: Butler leads the Bulls in WARP in clutch situations, ranking well ahead of both Rose and Gasol.
What happens for Butler after the season?
He would be well justified if he responded to every question about his breakout season by saying, "Cha-ching!" Butler, who will be a restricted free agent in July, has put himself in position to receive a max contract offer, and the Bulls almost certainly will be the authors of that pitch. Of players slated for free agency next season, Butler has the highest WARP, three spots higher than unrestricted free-agent-to-be Marc Gasol of Memphis.