Here's a breakdown of the three-team trade between the Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cavaliers get: Guards Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith (from Knicks), protected 2015 first-round pick (from Thunder)
Knicks get: Forward Lou Amundson, center Alex Kirk and a 2019 second-round pick (from Cavaliers), forward Lance Thomas (from Thunder)
Thunder get: Guard Dion Waiters (from Cavaliers)
Cleveland Cavaliers: A-
The groundwork of a Waiters-Shumpert deal has existed basically since LeBron James announced he was coming home, and it's always made sense. With James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, the Cavaliers didn't need Waiters' best skill (volume shooting). And while believers pointed to Waiters' spot-up shooting and potential to develop into a physical defender, accepting a smaller role has never been his mindset. The first two months of this season proved the fit was as bad as we all suspected.
Shumpert might not be a better player in a vacuum, but he's certainly a better choice as James' sidekick on the wing. While Shumpert isn't an All-Defensive caliber stopper, he is a solid wing defender who can handle opponents at all three perimeter spots, and he's good at generating steals. ESPN's real plus-minus rated him as the NBA's fifth-best shooting guard on defense through last season. Unfortunately, Shumpert has never become a good enough 3-point shooter to truly qualify as a 3-and-D specialist, but his 34.3 percent career shooting from deep is good enough to keep defenses honest. He's better beyond the arc, for example, than the similar Corey Brewer (29.6 percent).
So Waiters for Shumpert is a strong deal for the Cavaliers. Adding Smith, too? That makes this move a bit trickier. After all, Smith's shortcomings -- poor shot selection, unreliability off the court -- are much of what made Waiters so frustrating in Cleveland. And if Smith opts into the final season of his contract at $6.4 million in 2015-16, it will significantly hamper the Cavaliers' ability to stay below the tax line and maintain maximum flexibility to add to the roster.
At the same time, there's a big difference between Smith and Waiters: Smith has actually been good in the NBA. Waiters has posted a true shooting percentage (TS%) better than 50 percent only once in his three seasons in the NBA (.508 in 2013-14) and was still below average then. Before this season, Waiters' most efficient season would have been the second-lowest TS% of Smith's career. Especially in Denver, Smith hasn't been nearly as shot-happy or as inefficient as his reputation would suggest. Even this season, Smith's usage rate with the Knicks (23.5 percent) is lower than Waiters' with three All-Stars (24.1 percent).
There's a lot of downside with Smith, but there's upside, too. On a Cleveland team desperate for wing contributors with James sidelined, Smith can be helpful. Getting a first-round pick (a possible trade chip) as incentive to take on Smith's contract makes the choice that much easier.
At first, it looked like Cleveland would get Samuel Dalembert in this deal, but I don't think it was workable with his salary included. Now, the Cavaliers have to be hoping that Dalembert clears waivers and becomes a free agent. Cleveland would be the most logical landing spot for Dalembert, who would be a huge upgrade on the Cavaliers' current frontcourt backups. As I wrote in this morning's Insider Daily, Cleveland has been far worse with a reserve big on the floor since Anderson Varejao was lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles.
New York Knicks: A
No, the Knicks didn't steal Reggie Jackson, as was prematurely reported as news of this deal trickled out via Twitter. It's still an excellent deal for New York from a financial perspective. Assuming the Knicks waive Dalembert, as well as the nonguaranteed players acquired in this trade, New York saves more than $20 million by my calculations. The Knicks not only shave almost $4.5 million off their payroll the remainder of the season, they also cut their tax bill from more than $22 million to just $6.4 million. In fact, it's realistic now that New York could get all the way under the tax line with more money-saving moves before the trade deadline, which might matter in terms of the repeater tax down the line.
More importantly, the Knicks no longer have to sweat out the possibility that Smith picks up his option for 2015-16. Salary-cap space is a precious commodity in New York, which projects to have somewhere in the neighborhood of $27 million available next summer, depending where the cap falls. As unreliable as free agency might be, it's the Knicks' clearest path back to contention.
The cost to New York is whatever the team might have been able to get for Shumpert before the trade deadline. The Knicks turned down Oklahoma City's first-round pick (ultimately 29th overall, used on Josh Huestis) at last year's deadline. Shumpert's value probably wasn't quite that high this season, since he's now a rental in the final year of his contract, and New York might have had to settle for a second-rounder or two. That wouldn't outweigh the financial gains from this deal.
Oklahoma City Thunder: D
This trade looks like the start of a two-step process for the Thunder, and it's hard to evaluate before we know what Part 2 will be. First off, Waiters seems to create a crowd on the wing in Oklahoma City. It's tough to see Waiters ousting the two specialists playing most of the Thunder's shooting guard minutes (defensive stopper Andre Roberson and sharpshooter Anthony Morrow), which would leave him battling fellow youngsters Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones for spot minutes as the fourth wing.
Second, as noted by ESPN's Royce Young, this trade puts Oklahoma City slightly over the luxury tax. The Thunder have never paid the tax, and it seems unlikely they would do so when they can easily get under. Dealing either Jones or Lamb to a team with a trade exception would do the trick, and that's the most likely follow-up. The more extreme possibility is that Oklahoma City really is planning to trade Jackson, a restricted free agent this summer, and sees Waiters as a replacement for the minutes Jackson plays alongside Russell Westbrook.
Ultimately, I think this deal is probably about Sam Presti value-shopping for a player drafted No. 4 overall. The first-round pick the Thunder sent to Cleveland is top-18 protected according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, so the worst-case scenario is Oklahoma City gives up the 19th or 20th pick as a low seed in this year's playoffs. It's also possible the pick rolls over to 2016, in which case it will probably fall in the late 20s.
The problem is I'm not sure Waiters is worth even a low first-rounder. Three seasons into his career, he's never rated better than right around replacement level. Waiters fits slightly better with the Thunder than the Cavaliers because of Scott Brooks' tendency to rest both Westbrook and Kevin Durant at the same time, leaving Reggie Jackson as the primary creator on the floor, but the same issues exist if Oklahoma City tries to play Waiters with the starters. So the Thunder might not be more satisfied with Waiters than Cleveland was.