The Josh Smith era in Detroit came to a stunning end Monday, when Pistons coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy waived Smith with more than two seasons and over $30 million remaining on the four-year contract he signed as a free agent less than 18 months ago. Let's take a look at the implications of this move for Detroit and Smith moving forward.
Why were the Pistons so motivated to get rid of Smith?
While this might be obvious to anyone who has seen Detroit play this season, it's worth reinforcing with some numbers. Last season, the partnership of Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond did not work because of the Pistons' insistence on playing all three players together, which put Smith at small forward instead of power forward, where he's been more effective throughout his career.
Aware of that issue, Van Gundy rarely played the giant frontcourt this season. (It was actually surprisingly effective in limited action, getting outscored by just 3.8 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats.) Yet Detroit has still started just 5-23 in large part because lineups with Smith have been so ineffective.
The Pistons have been outscored by 12.3 points per 100 possessions when Smith plays with Drummond, and even worse (minus-12.9 per 100) when Smith plays with Monroe. Remarkably, the frontcourt of Monroe and Drummond, with Smith on the bench, has played opponents almost even: minus-1.8 points per 100 possessions.
Besides emphasizing a superior lineup combination, eliminating Smith in favor of Monroe may also help salvage Detroit's chances of re-signing Monroe next summer, when he will be an unrestricted free agent. Monroe elected to play for the Pistons' one-year qualifying in 2014-15 instead of signing a long-term deal as a restricted free agent.
Why would the Pistons waive Smith instead of trading him?
ESPN's Marc Stein reported again Monday that the Sacramento Kings offered the Pistons a package of first Jason Thompson and Derrick Williams, and later Thompson and Carl Landry, for Smith over the summer. Stein also reported that the Kings were the only team to show interest when Van Gundy shopped Smith before this decision.
Even if that changed by the deadline, Sacramento's offer is likely typical of what Detroit could have expected. In order to dump Smith's remaining salary, the Pistons would have had to take on another team's bad contracts in return. (Thompson and Landry are set to make a combined $26 million over the next two seasons, nearly identical to Smith's remaining contract.)
However, trading Smith for two players with smaller salaries still might have benefited Detroit by making them easier to move. That's a strategy that worked for the Kings, who traded Marcus Thornton to Brooklyn for Jason Terry and Reggie Evans at the 2014 trade deadline. They were later able to flip Terry to the Houston Rockets, giving up a pair of second-round picks. Meanwhile, it took a first-round pick and Tyler Zeller to convince the Boston Celtics to take on Thornton's contract in a three-team trade over the summer.
Instead, Van Gundy decided to forego the chance to find a trade in the future in order to guarantee more cap flexibility next summer. The stretch provision of the new NBA collective bargaining agreement allows the Pistons to stretch the final two seasons of Smith's contract over a five-year span, reducing his cap hit from $13.5 million in both 2015-16 and 2016-17 to $5.4 million, which will be paid through 2019-20. (Detroit will save additional money by setting off any salary Smith is paid by a new team above the NBA's second-year minimum.)
If Monroe walks, the Pistons could have around $25 million in cap space, with the opportunity to add to that figure by trading Brandon Jennings or waiving and stretching the final season of Jennings' contract in the same manner.
What makes the choice to waive Smith curious is the timing. From a cap standpoint, the move would have worked the same after the trade deadline. If Van Gundy was convinced Smith was a negative presence on the roster, he could have just elected to send Smith home while trying to work out a trade, a common occurrence in the NBA. For example, the Philadelphia 76ers did so with Allen Iverson before trading him to the Denver Nuggets in 2006.
What's next for Smith? Can he help a team?
Smith will almost certainly clear waivers. The only team with enough cap space to claim him at this point is the Philadelphia 76ers, and picking up Smith would make little sense for a rebuilding team. So that will make Smith an unrestricted free agent with his choice of a next destination. Stein has reported the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat and Kings will all have interest.
A new opportunity may allow Smith to showcase the skills that made him one of the league's better players while with the Atlanta Hawks. We're just two years removed from him posting better than eight wins above replacement player (WARP) in his final season in Atlanta, putting him in the NBA's top 35 in value.
At the same time, teams considering Smith will have to ponder how much of his decline has to do with Smith's reliance on his athleticism. While Smith shouldn't be far removed from his peak at age 29, my analysis has suggested that players peak athletically in their early 20s. Most of the time, players can compensate with improved skills until they hit their 30s. That may not be the case for Smith, whose skills seem to be deteriorating. A 67.0 percent shooter from the free throw line through 2011-12, Smith has shot just 51.6 percent on free throws the last three seasons, including 46.8 percent this season.
The best fit for Smith will be as a versatile post player capable of defending stretch 4s while playing with teammates whose floor spacing allows him to play near the basket. That sounds a lot like a role on the Clippers' second unit. Smith could play with floor-stretching center Spencer Hawes and would give Doc Rivers a small-ball option at power forward, which the team currently lacks.
Houston could potentially do something similar by pairing Smith and Donatas Motiejunas, who has 3-point range. The Rockets' fast pace also could be good for Smith, who could be part of an up-tempo reserve group along with newly acquired Corey Brewer. Houston, which has the biannual exception available, is also the only team among these five that could pay Smith more than the minimum. After set-off, Smith would make an extra $500,000 this season if he got the biannual exception.
Miami could pair Smith with Chris Bosh, and Smith's athleticism would work well in the Heat's trapping defense.
The Mavericks have experience making do with non-shooters at one forward spot. They've used both Al-Farouq Aminu and Jae Crowder in that role this season, and may have an opening after Crowder was dealt to the Boston Celtics as part of the Rajon Rondo trade.
Despite long-standing interest in Smith, Sacramento probably makes the least sense as a destination. The Kings are already short on shooting, and playing Smith inside would cramp the spacing for their star, DeMarcus Cousins.