So the deed is done. The Minnesota Timberwolves have agreed in principle to trade Kevin Love, the second-best player in franchise history behind Kevin Garnett. After acquiring Love on draft night just over six years ago and helping him develop into one of the 10 best players in the NBA, the Timberwolves are watching him leave without a single playoff appearance to mark his tenure.
Whether you think the playoff drought is Love's fault is irrelevant. He's gone. I was against Minnesota trading Love, but if it had to happen, this is the way to do it. By acquiring the past two No. 1 overall picks, as well as Thaddeus Young from the Philadelphia 76ers, the Timberwolves have at least given themselves an outside chance at replacing Love's elite-level value. Eventually. If it happens, you figure the emergent star will be Andrew Wiggins, but Anthony Bennett is young and talented enough to also develop into a capable starter, his abhorrent rookie season notwithstanding.
So where do the Wolves go from here? Here's a look at why Minnesota needs to build up -- not tear down -- and how the club can begin to do so.
Re-evaluating talent acquisition, development
Love's slow departure was a massive organizational mistake by Minnesota, which began when the Timberwolves failed to sign Love to a fully committed, five-year extension. Flip Saunders was the one to finally pull the trigger on the Love trade, but Saunders should never have been in this position to begin with. Even a robust playoff run might not have been enough to overcome the team's fatal mistake.
The lessons from that mistake need to be learned by the Wolves' front office, because the time to take a different route is now. Minnesota whiffed on far too many draft picks, and that's got to change because in that market they will rarely attract elite free agents, so the Timberwolves will never sustain success without their first-round picks developing into foundation pieces or at least rotation players. That's one lesson: a full reckoning of the scouting, drafting and development processes.
Build now, adding veterans to young core
While that's going on, Minnesota needs to hurl itself into its next move. A teardown doesn't make sense for this franchise. It's been 10 years since Minnesota was in the postseason, and since then Timberwolves fans have seen two superstars hit the road in Love and Garnett. Last year, Minnesota ranked 27th in attendance, and you just can't keep losing forever. Hope has an expiration date. For that reason, Saunders really can't tear down by, for example, trading away Ricky Rubio before they have to negotiate an expensive extension.
The alternate path is to bank on Rubio and Nikola Pekovic developing into a winning two-man foundation, while surrounding them with capable veterans, all while Wiggins, Bennett, Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad and Zach LaVine develop into an exciting group. Especially Wiggins. The Timberwolves need to avoid further alienating a dwindling fan base, but just as important they need to ensure that the young players on hand are brought up in an atmosphere of competitiveness. Minnesota's signing of free-agent veteran Mo Williams, which must have occurred even as Saunders knew Love was going away, suggests the organization is at least trying to create a competitive culture.
That's why getting Young in this deal makes sense. I'm all for it. Young provides a shadow of Love's value, but he's a very good player who has been a key contributor on playoff teams. A starting five of Pekovic, Rubio, Wiggins, Corey Brewer and Young is worth watching, especially when there are so many developing players providing hope for a higher ceiling in the future.
The bottom-line difference between Love and Young is immense. According to early SCHOENE projections, Young is forecast for about 6.0 wins above replacement (WARP), while Love is at 16.9. Young is a better defender, although with a tweener body type he's far from ideal on that end. But he is an efficient inside-the-arc scorer, and after reintroducing the deep ball to his arsenal last year, perhaps this season an uptick in percentage will go along with all the extra attempts. He's not a good defensive rebounder, and that's an area where Minnesota projects to struggle some. However, Love sucked up so many caroms off the defensive glass that it's possible his presence put a dent in the rebounding forecasts of Pekovic, Dieng, Rubio and Brewer. Meanwhile, Young can help fill in the shortfall caused by Love's departure in areas such as playmaking and face-up shooting.
New style of play, outlook
Saunders also can alter the style of play in Minnesota, starting with a revamped offensive hierarchy. This will be a chance for Rubio to truly seize the reins and run a ton of ball-screen action with Pekovic, while also leading a quick-paced attack that includes Wiggins, Brewer and Young running the floor. In other words, there is no way for Young or anyone else to make up for Love's varied contributions, but perhaps collectively Minnesota can stay afloat by redistributing responsibility and hopefully boosting the value of the players left behind. But without at least one more impact addition, it's hard to make the math work in Minnesota's favor.
Losing Love is a tough blow, but there is too much talent left behind to start over from scratch. The beauty of this trade is that it gives the Timberwolves two elite picks in hand, on the roster, ready to shape and mold, as well as an additional $6.3 million trade exception in their pockets.
But let's face it: Without a move for another veteran, Minnesota will be pretty bad this season. My quick calculations suggest a fall to 32 wins, the worst baseline in the West.
The addition of Young immediately bumps Minnesota back up to about a 39-win baseline. The weak points in the post-Love profile are stark: a general lack of high-percentage shooting and a league-low shot-block total. Minnesota still has plenty of room under the tax line for another addition or two, though it is limited in the exceptions it can use. Someone such as veteran free agent Elton Brand as a low-possession, high-percentage finisher and paint protector makes sense, as does an expanded role for Dieng.
Either way, this is no time for Saunders to step back. Minnesota has a history of losing stars because of faulty supporting casts and a general lack of bold maneuvering. The time to change that is now, or else in a few years, if and when Wiggins achieves the level of stardom that Love already has, we might see the same story repeated again.