With what is expected to be as much as $12 million in cap space, per our Brian Windhorst, the Miami Heat will have a chance to reload this summer. However, it's worth asking whether this is Pat Riley's last shot at remaking the roster around the team's Big Three of Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
After all, Bosh and Wade didn't terminate the last two years of their contracts and reportedly agree to take lower starting salaries entirely out of unselfishness. They're also getting something out of the deal -- longer contracts, likely at least four years each. And while those contracts start at a lower point, to clear maximum cap space, they'll go up each season, meaning this might be the last time Miami has room under the cap with this core group.
At the same time, Bosh and Wade are likely to see their value on the court gradually erode. That dynamic -- increasing salaries, decreasing value -- is true for most veteran free agents. But it's especially problematic for a Heat team built around its stars.
Projecting Wade and Bosh
Wade's decline was most obvious and problematic during the NBA Finals, when he shot 43.8 percent from the field in Miami's five-game loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Because of the "maintenance program" the Heat undertook to try to keep Wade fresh for the playoffs, his value in the regular season dropped dramatically. Wade sat out 28 games and played fewer minutes than backup guard Norris Cole. As a result, his 6.5 wins above replacement player (WARP) was his lowest total since his rookie season.
That trend is unlikely to reverse direction. If Wade played the same minutes as 2013-14, my SCHOENE projection system estimates he'd produce 6.5 WARP next season, and a similar total in 2015-16. But by 2016-17, based on the aging of players like Wade, he'd drop to 4.5 WARP -- similar to Pau Gasol's performance last season, for sake of comparison.
At that point, based on a starting salary of $12 million, Wade would be making $13.8 million. And he'd likely have another season left on his contract, paying him $14.7 million at age 36.
The news is better for Bosh, who doesn't have the history of injury problems that has dogged Wade. At 30, he's also two years younger. Nonetheless, Bosh is past the prime of his career, and likely to see the effects of aging in seasons to come.
Based on similar players, SCHOENE projects a gentle decline, from 8.3 WARP in 2012-13 and 7.9 last year to 7.4 in 2014-15, 6.9 in 2015-16 and 6.3 in 2016-17.
Over time, those small, almost imperceptible losses in value do add up. By 2016-17, Bosh projects as two wins less valuable than he was in 2012-13, his best season in Miami.
Projecting James
The scarier proposition for the Heat is that James might be human, and may begin to decline himself. Last season, James saw his WARP total drop from 24.8 to 21.4, and aging may have been a factor in his conserving energy during the regular season. Of course, once the playoffs began, he was the same dominant LeBron. In fact, his 31.1 postseason PER was the best of his Miami career.
Still, James will hit 30 in late December, putting him at the point of his career where most players lose ground. If nothing else, he may be less valuable during the regular season as the Heat do more to conserve his minutes. When his playoff minutes are added in, James has played more than anyone else in the NBA over the past four seasons.
The supporting cast
As much attention as Wade got, the larger problem for Miami in the NBA Finals was lack of depth. Erik Spoelstra shuffled through a variety of role players, getting little in the way of contributions from any of them. Age was a factor there, too. Shane Battier, 35, had little left in the tank before retiring. And Ray Allen, 38, and Chris Andersen, 35, have a tough time playing extended minutes at this point in their careers.
We don't yet know how much younger the Heat might get this offseason. Adding point guard Shabazz Napier in the draft is a good start, because Napier should be an upgrade on Cole. But much is riding on which free agent(s) Riley can attract with the team's newfound cap flexibility. Kyle Lowry (28) is a much better long-term bet than Marcin Gortat (30) would have been.
The projected roster my colleague Tom Haberstroh put together for Miami achieved mixed results in this regard. While his imaginary Heat added youth on the wings in C.J. Miles (27) and Al-Farouq Aminu (23), his marquee signing Channing Frye is 31 and Jameer Nelson 32, putting them on the same downward track as Bosh and Wade.
Though Riley can do more to inject youth into the roster, to some extent an aging group of role players is a function of how Miami is built. Veterans are more likely to take the pay cuts usually required to join the Heat, and the lure of a championship is stronger for players nearing retirement. The key is to keep this group from getting too old at once by failing to turn it over on a regular basis, which happened last season with the loss of Mike Miller and inability of younger newcomers Michael Beasley and Greg Oden to contribute during the playoffs.
Delaying, not stopping, decline
The way Miami fell short in the NBA Finals made it clear the Heat could not continue as constructed and expect to be the league's best team. The infusion of talent and clearing cap space will provide gives Miami a better shot at competing for championships next season and beyond. However, it's not a permanent solution to the problem of aging among the Big Three and elsewhere on the roster.
Locking in Bosh and Wade to long-term contracts will in fact make it more difficult for the Heat to compensate as they decline, making it critical that the newcomers the team adds aren't on the same schedule. If Miami finds itself in the same position in June a couple of years from now, with no way to add a key player, James may find he'll have to look elsewhere to maximize his window as one of the league's top stars.