My WARP projections for the top prospects in this year's draft, released last week, offer a good idea of how the 2014 draftees compare to one another statistically. But by themselves, the projections don't put this year's prospects in the context of their predecessors. To do that, I'm turning to a staple of my colleague Chad Ford's draft analysis for ESPN Insider: the tier system.
By breaking down WARP projections into categories, we can create objective, performance-based tiers similar to Ford's, driven by scouting and the consensus of NBA front offices. In addition to listing players from each tier in the past five drafts, I've also included the average minutes per game and percentage of games started for players in each tier during their fourth season (the end of the rookie contract for first-round picks) and the percentage of players who developed into All-Stars from the 2003 to 2010 drafts.
Let's take a look at how this year's prospects compare.
TIER 1: 4-PLUS WARP
All-Stars: 60 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 85.2
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 31.2
This year: None
Ford's Tier 1 is reserved for surefire All-Stars or "franchise" players. Besides the undersized big men who excelled in college (Blair and Faried), my slightly larger group fits. This tier also includes Kevin Love, the only player with 4-plus WARP before 2009. Five of the eight players were All-Stars last season, and Cousins is likely to join them in the future.
Although scouts and GMs placed three players in Ford's Tier 1 this year, no one qualifies statistically.
TIER 2: 3-4 WARP
All-Stars: 33.3 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 57.1
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 25.0
This year: Marcus Smart, Clint Capela, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Adams
Here's where the 2014 draft shines. In large part because of an optimistic assessment of the international talent, six players have WARP projections between 3 and 4 -- twice as many as any previous draft in my database dating back to 2003, and five more than last year, when only the injured Nerlens Noel topped 3 WARP.
Ford's Tier 2 features potential All-Stars, and one-third of players in this tier statistically have in fact reached that level. There's a greater risk of busts among this tier, but in general, players with WARP projections greater than 3 should develop into quality starters, and there's a reasonable chance of finding a star.
TIER 3: 2-3 WARP
All-Stars: 25.0 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 56.4
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 24.7
This year: Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Noah Vonleh, Javon McCrea, P.J. Hairston, Tyler Ennis
Ford's Tier 3 features projected starters. Indeed, this third statistical tier has been nearly as successful as the second one, producing solid starters. There's star potential, too, with Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo along with Paul George.
This year's group is relatively small, particularly by comparison to last year's large but disappointing Tier 3. It features three of the top five projections, provided Embiid can still be considered in that group, as well as a couple of later first-round picks in Ennis and Hairston and one deep sleeper: Buffalo's McCrea.
TIER 4: 1.5-2 WARP
All-Stars: 11.5 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 35.1
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 18.0
This year: Gary Harris, Jarnell Stokes, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Kyle Anderson, K.J. McDaniels, Khem Birch
Ford's Tier 4 features starters or high-level rotation players. Once players go below 2.0 projected WARP, their star potential declines considerably, although Tier 4 still includes an MVP (Derrick Rose) and a Finals MVP (Dwyane Wade). Besides them, other All-Stars include LaMarcus Aldridge, Josh Howard, Andre Iguodala, Brook Lopez. In practice, though, this group mostly yields reserves.
Possible top-10 picks Gordon, Harris, McDermott and Randle will hope to join the All-Stars and overcome the odds against them. This tier has been more likely to produce below replacement level than reach the All-Star Game.
TIER 5: 0.5-1.5 WARP
All-Stars: 5.6 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 32.8
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 16.7
This year: Dario Saric, Andrew Wiggins, Nik Stauskas, Damien Inglis, Shabazz Napier, Spencer Dinwiddie, Walter Tavares, Scottie Wilbekin, Zach LaVine, Langston Galloway, Lamar Patterson, Bryce Cotton, Mitch McGary, James Young, Elfrid Payton, Kendall Williams, T.J. Warren, Roy Devyn Marble, Eric Moreland, Vasilije Micic, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Glenn Robinson III, Chane Behanan, Fuquan Edwin, Mike Moser, Juvonte Reddic
In Ford's model, Tier 5 contains players from the late first round and early second round. Typically, these players do not develop into starters, although many of them are rotation players off the bench. There is the occasional All-Star -- five in all from this tier -- but far more washouts.
That's troublesome for Wiggins, far and away the most notable prospect in this tier (for more of my take on why Wiggins might not be worthy of the No. 1 pick, check out my article from Wednesday), as well as Saric.
TIER 6: LESS THAN 1.5 WARP
All-Stars: 1.1 percent
Percentage of starts in Year 4: 15.4
Average minutes per game in Year 4: 10.6
This year: Adreian Payne, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Cleanthony Early, Jerami Grant, C.J. Wilcox, Patric Young, Joe Harris, Semaj Christon, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nemanja Dangubic, Jordan McRae, Johnny O'Bryant, Jahii Carson, C.J. Fair, Alessandro Gentile, Russ Smith, DeAndre Daniels, Nick Johnson
A WARP projection below 0.5 isn't an NBA death sentence -- this final tier has produced some solid players, like Taj Gibson, Wesley Matthews and Isaiah Thomas -- but the overwhelming likelihood is that players in Tier 6 will have short careers at best. Just one player from this tier, DeMar DeRozan of the Toronto Raptors, has gone on to make an All-Star team.
Most of this year's players in Tier 6 are second-round picks who are long shots anyway. The notable exceptions are almost entirely upperclassmen with underwhelming statistical performance given their age.