Continuing today with the Los Angeles Lakers, we're asking the big-picture questions for each team that are likely asked by NBA general managers on a daily basis. The overriding question of every franchise: How do we get from here to a title? With the latest Lakers injury news dropping this week about Kobe Bryant, there may be no other team in the league for which that question is so muddled.
Where do the Lakers reside on the arc of contention?
In June, the Lakers will be four years removed from their previous title, in 2010. After the Dwight Howard hiccup last season, the Lakers retain the same foundation of that title team, at least in terms of their payroll structure. Bryant and Pau Gasol were the Lakers' highest-paid players then; they are L.A.'s highest-paid players now. With Bryant already signed for two more years beyond this one, the Lakers threaten to become the rare championship team that makes it all the way over to the wrong side of the arc as a squad that just couldn't let go of the glory days. It is past time for a reset, but with the ink barely dry on Bryant's contract extension, a clean slate seems impossible.
What do the moves it has made say about how management views Los Angeles' place in the NBA pecking order?
During the 54 seasons since the Lakers left Minneapolis, you can count on one hand how many times they've missed the playoffs, and you don't need your thumb. Next spring is likely going to be just the fifth time during that span that the NBA playoffs will proceed without the Lakers. Just to cite one counter-example: The Sacramento Kings have missed the playoffs in each of the past seven seasons, and that probably will become eight come April. So you can forgive the rest of the brass for retaining an inflated sense of self. Despite the Howard debacle, the Lakers' $48.5 million extension of Bryant's deal screams that they still view themselves as a destination franchise that will contend during the next couple of seasons.
How does reality mesh with that vision of the organization?
Whether the Lakers are actually a prime free-agent destination is debatable, especially now that Bryant's body has again betrayed him. Gasol's expiring deal opens up flexibility for some possible trades, but in today's marketplace, free agents aren't going to sign with the Lakers simply because they're the Lakers. General manager Mitch Kupchak is going to have to build his next roster the same way every other general manager in the NBA has to build his, and the Lakers are not going to have an advantage because Bobby DuPea sits courtside.
The upshot is that Kupchak is an exceptionally capable NBA general manager, and in his public comments sounds all too aware of the Lakers' quandary. While his chances to augment Bryant with a splashy free agent are minimal, Kupchak seems to have found some solid, young second-chance players in Jordan Hill, Wesley Johnson, Nick Young and Xavier Henry to fill out his short-term rotation. Los Angeles has just three likely contracts on the books for next season, which frees up the Lakers to pursue any big-name free agents who might spring loose. The flexibility also allows them to get creative between now and the trade deadline without harming the long-term prospectus.
What key decisions lie ahead?
The initial six-week timetable for Bryant's latest comeback means that if all goes well, he'll be back in the lineup before the trade deadline. For most of that span, the Lakers also will be without Steve Nash and Steve Blake.
The Lakers are 12-13, 2½ games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Los Angeles actually has overachieved in terms of scoring margin, and features differential that would typically mark a 10-15 team. If Bryant is out until the end of January, he'll miss the Lakers' next 22 games. Thirteen of those contests are away from Staples Center, a total that includes a January stretch of 10 road games in 20 days. Let's say the Lakers go 6-3 at home and 3-10 on the road. That leaves them at 19-28 by the time Bryant gets back on the court.
Worse, L.A. would still have to re-integrate Bryant back into the rotation, a process that was far from complete during his six games after returning from his Achilles injury. The Lakers were markedly better with Bryant off the floor during those games. In other words, the Lakers have to seriously think about throwing in the towel for this season. That includes trying to move Gasol, Nash and Blake while also trying to convince Bryant to delay his comeback until he's 100 percent healthy, or at least as close to it as he can get at this point of his career.
What are the team's chief assets?
The Lakers owe future first-round picks to Phoenix and Orlando, respectively, making it unlikely they can flip another pick. It's more likely the Lakers will be trying to add picks for the next draft, which is something of an upset in itself. Los Angeles hasn't had impact production from one of its own first-rounders since 2005 draftee Andrew Bynum. The young players on the roster all have expiring or non-guaranteed contracts, but conceivably still could be used as sweetener as part of a large trade. Then there is the possibility of cap space, which our pal Larry Coon estimates will be about $22.2 million next summer if the roster remains as is.
How does the team get from here to a championship?
The Lakers find themselves in a similar situation to that of the Chicago Bulls (See below for the Bulls' GM for a Day). Their franchise player is locked up for multiple years at an amount that will top the team's payroll hierarchy, but his on-court value is a huge question mark because of injury. Like the Bulls, the Lakers have little choice but to proceed as if Bryant will eventually get healthy, and will produce at something like the level of his pre-injury self. It's not as if they can sign a comparable player as a hedge.
With the next high-dollar salary slot in Kupchak's future payroll, he needs to uncover a player good enough to make Bryant a very valuable second wheel for the twilight of his career. He also needs an impact third wheel. That's a tall order, but one of the two building blocks could come in the draft. If the Lakers land in the lottery for the first time in eons and get lucky, they possibly could find the next Kobe in a loaded draft.
Right now, it doesn't seem likely that Kupchak will find the other core piece he'll need in the free-agent market. Carmelo Anthony? While he might be Kupchak's most viable option for adding a star player, signing Anthony to pair with Bryant might be a really bad idea. Given the Lakers' situation, the notion is probably a long shot anyway. LeBron James would be the ideal target. Even if James decides to again change addresses, he's likely to have more attractive options in the marketplace. Zach Randolph, Carlos Boozer are possible trade fits, but do any of those players push the Lakers back into contention?
In the end, Kupchak's top and immediate priority is to turn Gasol's expiring deal into a foundation player, whether it's by trade or through free agency next summer. His success in doing so might be the biggest challenge of Kupchak's career as an executive. If he fails, the answer to the question above is this: They can't.