What are some of the questions NBA general managers face on a daily basis? Well, for each team we're going to ask those questions and then try to answer them, starting today with the Chicago Bulls.
Whether a team is aiming for a title this season or is angling for a choice lottery pick, the process of reassessing an organization is always evolving. However, the overriding question never changes: How do we get from here to a championship?
1. Where do the Bulls reside on the arc of contention?
With Derrick Rose sidelined for a second straight season, the Bulls are not title contenders in 2013-14. The most recent results of John Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds project the Bulls for 38 wins and give them just a 0.1 percent chance at a title. Before the season, when it was cautiously projected that Rose would play in most of Chicago's games at a level not far off his pre-injury productivity, the Bulls were viewed as a fringe title candidate. The consensus was that Chicago was in the mix with Brooklyn and Indiana for a No. 2 seed in the East, but was still on a lower tier than the two-time defending champion Miami Heat.
Beyond this season, the Bulls are a tough read. On one hand, in Rose they have in place the most difficult championship component to obtain: the superstar, the elite of the elite. However, after playing in just 47 games over three seasons because of two major knee injuries, it's far from certain that Rose will return to his pre-injury level in the seasons to come. If he does, Chicago will remain a top-tier contender. If not, the Bulls are in for an extended limbo.
The Bulls have been built around Rose, and their possible paths in the future revolve around his status as an annual MVP candidate. He is under contract for three more years after this one, with an average annual salary of about $20 million. That means he will top the Bulls' salary structure for the foreseeable future. It also means the Bulls have little choice but to proceed as if Rose will be the player he was before his injury. Any scenario that ends in a Bulls championship has Rose in the center of it all.
2. How do the Bulls view themselves in the NBA pecking order?
Perhaps judge by the moves they've made. Entering the season, the Bulls added veteran Mike Dunleavy Jr. but let free agents Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli leave. They added a pair of rookies. However, overall they did little to open avenues toward cap flexibility after this season. The Bulls were certainly trying to remain in the title conversation, but they were also protecting their future ability to improve, or even overhaul, the roster. Rose's latest injury occurred too recently to pass judgment about the course Bulls management charts from here.
In public comments, Chicago has dismissed suggestions it should enter into a short-term rebuilding plan. More bad losses such as Tuesday's listless home defeat to Milwaukee might change that notion.
3. How does reality mesh with the vision of the organization?
The uncertainty about Rose really hamstrings any bold paths the Bulls might choose. It's still unclear whether next summer's free-agent class will turn out to be as star-studded as once thought. However, even if a superstar or two tries the market, Chicago's status as a free-agent destination is severely undermined by Rose's absence. Who would sign on to be his running mate when it's unclear how effective he's going to be?
The Bulls are left to proceed with caution. Any splashy move would almost certainly have to come via the trade route. And the incoming assets would have to add up to more than the Bulls would have by simply standing pat while waiting for Rose to heal. The key thing to remember about Chicago's big-picture status is that if the team chooses to forgo overhauling its core after this season, the Bulls will have a chance to do the same after 2014-15. The hope would be that by then, Rose will have re-established himself as an upper-crust player.
4. What key decisions lie ahead?
Luol Deng has an expiring contract. Trading him could bring back a nice return, but the Bulls have to assess whether the assets they acquire for Deng add value compared to what they could get by simply re-signing him.
The key: the salary expectations of Deng's agent. It's hard to see him accepting much less than teammate Joakim Noah, which translates to roughly a three-year deal for about $33 million to $36 million.
That's fair value for a player with as much intangible value as anyone on the Chicago roster. It's also a deal that would play well in the marketplace if Chicago wants to move Deng down the line.
After the season, the Bulls will have their last chance to use the amnesty option and waive Carlos Boozer. If the team chooses to retain its current core, Boozer would escape the amnesty tag that we've long assumed would be his.
However, keeping Boozer would likely delay the arrival of European star Nikola Mirotic for yet another season.
5. What are the team's chief assets?
There's Rose, Deng's expiring contract, and the market-friendly deal of Noah. Jimmy Butler is an emerging player on a rookie contract, while fellow youngster Marquis Teague and Tony Snell would certainly draw interest in trade scenarios. The biggest trade asset on the roster could be frontcourt super-sub Taj Gibson, who would be viewed as a final piece player for a number of contenders.
The Bulls also retain the rights to Mirotic, who has been called the world's best player not already in the NBA. Chicago retains all of its future draft picks, and also owns a first-round pick from Charlotte. It has long been assumed that this pick will turn into an unprotected lottery pick in 2016, but the Bobcats' early improvement throws a wrench in that scenario. If the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Bulls will end up with a mid-first-rounder in the next draft. On the bright side, it's a good year to have two picks in the first round, regardless of slot.
On the downside, Chicago is projected to be a taxpayer for the second straight season. The Bulls will have to avoid the luxury tax in each of the next two seasons to avoid the harsh punitive effects of repeater status. Finally, let's not forget the Bulls have one of the game's best coaches, Tom Thibodeau.
6. How does the team get from here to a championship?
Stand pat by keeping the current core together. Thanks to established talent, maturing role players, a premier overseas stash named Mirotic, and plenty of draft picks, the Bulls have the assets to choose any number of possible paths.
Let's not forget that since it came together, the Rose-Deng-Boozer-Noah core has won 80 percent of the games in which they have all been in the starting lineup.
In some ways, Rose's injury simplifies the short-term scenario. Now, rather than keeping Deng in limbo in hopes of replacing him with a true second star over the summer, the Bulls must realize they aren't likely to do better in the marketplace, assuming Deng's contract demands are reasonable.
Keeping Deng dictates everything else. Rather than releasing Boozer via the amnesty clause, Chicago can keep its core together for one more season. Mirotic's rights aren't going anywhere, though they could always be included in a blockbuster trade that has yet to present itself. Snell, Teague and Butler should keep getting better, which improves the depth of a healthy Chicago roster. The Bulls could add two more upside pieces in the next draft.
The decision to stand pat might not be sexy to a Chicago fan base that has long been told that the Bulls would make a splash in the summer of 2014. Rose's injury has destroyed that scenario. Let's not forget that since it came together, the Rose-Deng-Boozer-Noah core has won 80 percent of the games in which they have all been in the starting lineup. Unfortunately for Chicago, by the time this regular season is complete, that will have happened in just 22 percent of the Bulls' games since the start of the 2010-11 season. If the Bulls are to return to contention, that's the number that has to change.