Preseason NBA coverage nearly always comes packaged with a disclaimer: It's just the preseason. The implication being that we can't learn anything from preseason basketball performance because teams treat the exhibitions as a regular-season lay-up line and not real competition. If the players don't treat the games like they mean something, then why should we?
Because they do mean something.
In general, feel free to dismiss preseason records as prophecies of the regular season. But if you know where to look, you can find some telling trends.
Focus on the extremes. Dating to the 2001-02 preseason (when this data became readily available), 17 teams entered regular-season competition with just one loss or fewer on their preseason résumés. In the regular season, all but one of them became playoff teams, averaging about 49 victories in the upcoming campaign. The only exception was the 2004 Utah Jazz, who missed the playoffs despite having a winning record.
So despite the "exhibition" label, preseason domination is not a fluke. And that should make the Memphis Grizzlies feel pretty good right now. Sitting at 7-0, Memphis has blitzed opponents by over eight points per contest this preseason and looks primed to build on its 40-win season in 2009-10. If they beat the listless Detroit Pistons on Friday night, the Grizzlies would join the 2009-10 Orlando Magic, 2002-03 Pistons and the 2008-09 New Orleans Hornets as the only teams to finish the preseason undefeated over the past nine years. Those three teams won 59, 50 and 49 games respectively. (Oh, and the Jazz and Magic haven't lost yet either this preseason.)
While the Grizzlies didn't add any significant pieces in the offseason, they also didn't lose any. Sure, owner Michael Heisley egregiously overpaid for Rudy Gay when he signed the 24-year-old to a max deal. But by re-upping with Gay, the Grizzlies are bringing back the most used lineup of the 2009-10 season; Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol manned the court for an NBA-high 1,474 minutes last season, according to basketballvalue.com, and that familiarity can spark growth for this young team. If the preseason showcase is any indication, that spark has already been ignited.
On the other end of the win-loss spectrum, the Los Angeles Clippers haven't given us any reason to believe they'll be a sleeper team in the West. Even with Rookie of the Year candidate Blake Griffin averaging 28.2 points and 20.1 rebounds per 48 minutes, Los Angeles wrapped up its preseason schedule with seven losses in eight games. If history is a guide, that futility can't be shrugged off as just working out the kinks. Of the seven teams since 2001-02 who went 1-7 or worse in the preseason, none of them made the playoffs and four of them finished with win totals in the teens.
While the Clippers have certainly been on the losing side of some toss-ups this preseason (four losses by five points or less), they need to clean up their act soon. Marked by 20.6 turnovers per game, the Clippers have played sloppy this preseason, and the veterans, not the raw youth, deserve the majority of the blame; Baron Davis and Chris Kaman have posted 5.7 and 6.2 turnovers per 48 minutes, respectively. There's plenty of time to turn it around, but this might be the second year in a row that the team who boasts the ROY didn't finish with more than 25 wins.
Also not helping the Clippers' cause is that preseason records have more predictive power for teams coming off rough seasons. Part of the fuel for rampant skepticism of the preseason arises from watching really good teams struggle in it and then consequently march to 50-win regular seasons. In fact, when looking at teams who won at least 50 games in the prior regular season, the preseason record has about as much predictability as shooting at a dartboard blindfolded. There's no observable correlation between preseason record and regular-season record for teams coming off strong campaigns.
But that's not the case for the basement teams. When we look at the 46 teams that failed to reach 30 wins in the prior season, their preseason records actually predicted nearly 40 percent of the variability in their regular-season record. In laymen's terms, preseason records mean a lot for rebuilding teams and nearly nothing for the powerhouses.
Bad teams tend to go through an overhaul in the summer, either through trades or high lottery picks, and the preseason provides the stage to get the new pieces gelling before the regular season. For rebuilding teams, what you see in the preseason tends to be what you get in the regular season. The preseason has less value for 50-win teams (think the Magic and the Lakers) since they tend to stand pat in the offseason and consequently know what they'll get from their key players. Sub-30 win teams just can't afford to let young and unfamiliar teammates sit on the bench during the exhibitions.
One such team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, has won five of its seven games in this preseason. A handful of preseason games won't exonerate David Kahn's recent dubious deals, but it's certainly a much-needed glimmer of hope for Minnesota fans.
Tom Haberstroh is a writer for ESPN Insider. Follow him on Twitter: @tomhaberstroh.