To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
WARP projection: 0.7 (52nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Devin Ebanks (96.8), Julian Wright (95.1), Marcus E. Williams (94.4), DeMar DeRozan (94.2)
Strengths: FTA%, Rebound%, TO%
Weaknesses: Usage, Shooting, PF%
The analytics perspective
Because he made just eight 3-pointers in two seasons at Arizona, Hollis-Jefferson has one of the lowest shooting scores (which combines 3P%, 3PA/Min and FT%) among the wing players in my college database.
That list illustrates the task in front of Hollis-Jefferson. If he can learn to shoot, he has the ability to develop into a valuable 3-and-D player like Ariza or Carroll.
If not, he'll have to be an elite defender just to stick in the league, as Ebanks (whose .794 shooting rating was marginally better) and Wright were unable to do.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Hollis-Jefferson was a great high school player and was a very good college player at Arizona. Now, the question is: Can he become a good NBA player at the small forward position? At 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, Hollis-Jefferson has the size of an NBA wing player.
But the issue is that he played during his Wildcats career like a power forward. This season, he made 67 percent of his baskets at the rim. And he attempted 200 free throws. At times, his strength and athleticism overpowered opponents.
Unfortunately, in the NBA, he is unlikely to be as effective in the paint as he was in college. Hollis-Jefferson made just 33 percent of his 2-point jump shots and just 6 of his 31 attempts behind the arc. That becomes problematic because when NBA opponents can play off one perimeter offensive player, it "shrinks the floor" in defending the opponent's best players. It is an issue that NBA teams will weigh heavily.
Hollis-Jefferson's ballhandling is good but not elite. While he is an effective straight-line driver, he is not elusive enough with his dribble to play in isolation situations. Hollis-Jefferson's strengths are on the defensive end. Because of his above-average athleticism, 7-foot wingspan and over-the-top intensity, he has a chance to be a very good NBA wing defensive stopper. He's the same size as former Kentucky star and current Hornets small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who would be a good role model for him.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Hollis-Jefferson was a top-rated prospect out of high school and has been on NBA radar screens since going to Arizona. When Brandon Ashley went down last season and Hollis-Jefferson took over a big role on the offense, his strong play raised his draft stock into the mid-first round. Hollis-Jefferson decided to stay another year at Arizona, hoping to move his stock into the lottery.
Alas, like a number of heralded freshmen, he saw his draft stock slide this season. While he's produced slight upticks in points per game, rebounds per game, steals per game and shooting percentage, they weren't dramatic. His lack of improvement on his 3-point shot was the biggest source of his stock slide.
Still, Hollis-Jefferson has value in the NBA. He's an elite defender who can guard multiple positions on the floor. He's also an excellent athlete who finishes above the rim. He's also an unselfish leader who is willing to do the dirty work that so many coaches love. If he ever develops a passable jump shot, he has star potential in the NBA. His draft range is 18 to 25 right now, but he might be undervalued.
-- Chad Ford