NBA Insiders Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle break down the draft profile, needs and potential picks of the 14 teams eligible for the NBA draft lottery this year. With some help from Chad Ford's Big Board, we take a look at the Orlando Magic.
Personnel needs:
Like the Utah Jazz out West, the Magic have a nice cadre of recent lottery selections thanks to a methodical rebuilding program that started with the departure of a star player. Even without the top-10 pick Orlando will have in June, in-house development, continuity and a new coaching voice should have the Magic primed to move up the standings next season. But if they hit big on lottery night, and/or find just the right guy on draft night, things might be ready to crystallize for a team that has talent, but holes, and a glaring need for some kind of identity. The key question is whether GM Rob Hennigan and his staff are ready to target a specific need with their top pick or are still in best-talent-on-the-board mode. Ideally, the Magic could use a good-shooting, rim-protecting big forward to insert between Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. It's a rare combination of skills, but this draft does have possible solutions.
Major need: Orlando finished 25th in defense, 28th in shot blocking and 26th in opponent 2-point percentage. Interior defense is a major concern. However, the offense ranked 27th, and a future perimeter trio of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Gordon screams spacing issues. Somehow, the Magic need to improve both the shooting and interior defense departments. With that combination of needs, winning the lottery would mean a franchise-changing opportunity to nab the ideal solution: Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns.
Quiet need: Payton, Oladipo and Evan Fournier make for a nice, young backcourt rotation. However, Fournier isn't much of a playmaker, and needs to play alongside a creator to provide value. With Payton's scoring game iffy, an instant-offense point guard to come off the bench is a long-term need.
Not a need: While the Magic have a good collection of nice pieces, at this juncture there is a lack of a clear-cut hierarchy which contributes to ongoing concerns about fit. Because of that, there really is no area in which you can say Orlando does not have a need. However, given the strengths and weaknesses of the players on hand, you have to think the Magic would avoid another top pick whose athletic profile exceeds his current skill profile. In other words, whomever they draft, he better be able to shoot.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Orlando has a huge decision forthcoming on restricted free-agent forward Tobias Harris. Harris finished second to Vucevic in WARP among the Magic. Four years into his career, his three-year WARP puts him in the 75th percentile of all players. That's a tweener level of performance. It's good enough to start, but to be a top-three kind of player you really need to be in the 85th percentile or higher. With a tweener body type that brings with it defensive questions, and high-usage offensive proclivities, Harris might fit the bill as a bench scorer. But what kind of price will the RFA market command? And how willing will Harris be to see his role gradually reduced by the development of Gordon? It's a murky situation.
Don't mess with it: The Magic are locked into Vucevic to be their center through the 2018-19 season. Payton and Oladipo could be a potentially dynamic two-way backcourt. And Gordon is teeming with length and athleticism. It will be fun to see what this group grows into.
What free agency could solve
Orlando splurged on veteran Channing Frye, who didn't have a great season beyond shooting the 3-ball. This time around, the Magic have up to $24 million in cap space that could be freed up with relative ease, though a big commitment to Harris shrinks that number quickly. If the Magic see their current core as poised to take a major step forward, then maybe they kick the tires on someone like Detroit's Greg Monroe. Or maybe they look to package their lottery pick to bring in a veteran solution. Beyond that, the aforementioned need for a scoring backup point guard can be filled in a number of ways through free agency. Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and J.J. Barea are all free agents of just that type.
How they draft
Where they draft well: In the three drafts he's lorded over, Hennigan has had two top-four picks, a late lottery pick, a post-lottery first-rounder and two late second-round selections. He traded the late lottery pick (Dario Saric) for Payton. If you count Payton, then five of Hennigan's picks remain on the roster and three of them project as long-term starters. Even in his first draft, when he was armed with just the No. 19 and No. 49 selections, Hennigan came up with useful big men Andrew Nicholson and Kyle O'Quinn. It's a strong track record for him and his staff thus far. However, the Magic still need their elite talents to become elite producers. So far, you can say that with picks all over the board, Hennigan has found solid value wherever he's selected.
Where they don't draft well: Unlike many rebuilding general managers, Hennigan has made little effort to horde second-round picks. O'Quinn was a solid get. The only other second-rounder was at No. 51 in 2013, Romero Osby, and he hasn't played yet in the NBA. Even Devyn Marble, a late second-rounder in last year's draft, was obtained via the Arron Afflalo trade with Denver. Orlando has the No. 51 pick in this draft, but it's not a question of finding value with these low-risk picks; it's about gathering a few extra ones to begin with. Send some cash to Philadelphia's Sam Hinkie, who is like Henry Hill on the back of the cigarette truck in "Goodfellas" when it comes to second-rounders.
Three best fits
Justise Winslow, SF, Duke (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 6): Winslow could step in right away and help Orlando's shooting issues while also providing solid wing defense. He's a very good rebounder for his size, though defensive board work was already one of Orlando's strengths last season.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia (No. 5): Porzingis looks like a fit from the perspective of shooting and his base position of power forward. He can also block shots and is an all-around solid athlete. He's also a slight 6-11, 220 pounds, and, despite the shot-swatting acumen, isn't what you'd call a prototypical rim protector. He would need a few years to add strength, though his skills are polished enough for him to contribute in some capacity right off the bat.
Myles Turner, PF, Texas (No. 10): If he can stay healthy, Turner projects to do the very things we've outlined as Orlando's biggest needs. At 7-0, Turner has the third-highest projected block rate in the draft behind Towns and Washington's super-long Robert Upshaw. And he has a smooth, legit 3-point stroke. He's raw and would take the requisite time to develop, but eventually a coach could craft an elite defensive unit around Turner, Oladipo, Payton and Gordon, right? And Turner helps with the spacing problem.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: Seems like we write this every year, but at the end of draft night we must have a clearer vision of what the next playoff-caliber Magic team is going to look like. You'd like to see an immediate contributor, as the rebuilding campaigns are really starting to pile up. A push for a playoff spot in the East should be within reach, and getting a ready producer would help with that. You can't, of course, take that player without giving ample consideration to long-term value.
Additional goals: We've alluded to it already, but it would be nice if Orlando could add another second-rounder, preferably one at least in the middle of the round.