NBA Insiders Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle break down the draft profile, needs and potential picks of the 14 teams eligible for the 2015 NBA draft lottery. With some help from Chad Ford's Big Board, we take a look at the Indiana Pacers.
Personnel needs:
Whether or not center Roy Hibbert exercises his player option for the last year of his contract or power forward David West does the same on his, the Pacers need long-term solutions for the frontcourt. Backups Lavoy Allen and Luis Scola will be unrestricted free agents this summer. The Pacers also need a starting-caliber scorer for the wing to complement a healthier Paul George and solid point guard George Hill.
Major need: The Pacers have gone from eighth to 19th to 22nd to 24th in offensive efficiency over the past four years, all while finishing in the top 10 on defense in each of those seasons. While Indiana might feel good about the development of Solomon Hill and the contributions of Rodney Stuckey -- a free agent this summer -- the Pacers never really replaced the production lost when Lance Stephenson departed in restricted free agency. George Hill showed he is capable of ramping up his usage, but a true secondary scorer to pair with George is an ideal get for team president Larry Bird.
Quiet need: If the Pacers return largely intact, an instant-offense point guard would be a nice addition to the roster. This player would replace current backup C.J. Watson, a free agent. In Solomon Hill and C.J. Miles, Indiana has better wing scoring options for its reserve contingent than it has had in past seasons. The Pacers also have solid role players for the unit in center Ian Mahinmi and stretch forward Damjan Rudez. A reserve point guard who can create for himself and dish to the shooters will complete the set for Frank Vogel's bench. Also, the Pacers have fallen from a top-five offensive rebounding team to a bottom-10 group in that category over the past two seasons. As a power team with traditional frontcourt players, this can't be dismissed to coaching preferences. The Pacers could use an active body to back up West and crash the boards, an Ed Davis type.
Not a need: Indiana has all the veteran leadership it needs. The Pacers were the league's third oldest team the past season, according to minutes-weighted age.
Depth chart
Jobs in jeopardy: Hibbert's defense no longer justifies his woefully inefficient offense or his bipolar capacity for alternating terrific stat lines with cipher-like performances. He holds the cards, with his player option for next season worth $15.5 million, but the Pacers would surely love to mix things up on the trade market. West is clearly in decline, though George's return could help his game recover some of the efficiency lost the past season. Although Stuckey was better than he was in Detroit, his offensive production and efficiency were actually about the same -- his better bottom-line metrics were more a product of being propped up on defense by Indiana's solid scheme on that end. Although he is worth keeping around as a scoring backup at the right cost, as a starter, Stuckey is easily upgradeable. Finally, at this late stage of his career, Scola continues to be a player his coaches like much more than the numbers.
Don't mess with it: George was understandably rusty when he came back, as reflected in his shooting percentages and turnover rate in a minutes-limited role. But he showed enough physically to reassure the Pacers and their fans that after a summer of further rehab and the regular routine of a full training camp, he'll be ready to jump back on the Paul George career path. That makes him a cornerstone player at least two-thirds of teams around the league would love to build around. By being more assertive without sacrificing efficiency, George Hill showed new dimensions to his game, and he'll be an All-Star next season if he repeats that showing over a full season. Beyond that duo, the rest of the Pacers' roster is either aging or fungible. Like most teams, the roster is full of guys who can contribute, but you also look to upgrade as cap math and opportunities dictate.
What free agency could solve
If Hibbert and West both opt in, the Pacers are capped out before the summer begins. Once again, they can fill in the mortar with cap exceptions without hitting the tax line. The players who could have the most impact on an Indiana roster that stays intact are instant offense guys such as Mo Williams and Lou Williams. Those guys will have plenty of suitors, though perhaps a full midlevel would be more than enough to attract Williams. Chances are, however, the biggest splash the Pacers could make over the summer would be via an impact draft pick at No. 11 or a yet-to-be-determined trade package.
How they draft
Where they draft well: The Pacers have done a solid job drafting over the years under Bird, with the help of guys such as Kevin Pritchard, Donnie Walsh and David Morway. Solomon Hill showed flashes of being a solid scorer with some holes in his floor game, but then again, he was taken at No. 23. That's a good pick. Miles Plumlee was another nice value pick late in the first and was used in what now looks like a poor trade to bring in Scola. The previous two times Indiana picked in the range of this year's probable No. 11 pick, the team ended up with George (No. 10, 2010) and Jerryd Bayless (No. 11, 2008), who was later flipped to bring in high quality veteran help in Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts.
Where they don't draft well: The misses have generally been more in the middle of the first round. At No. 13 in 2009, Tyler Hansbrough contributed but never earned a major role. As good as George Hill looks now, it would still be awfully nice to have Kawhi Leonard (No. 15, 2011), who was sent to the Spurs to bring in Hill. Would Leonard fit with George? Chances are Vogel would have loved the chance to make it work.
Three best fits
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (Chad Ford Big Board ranking: No. 7): If Cauley-Stein slips to No. 11, you can bet Bird would jump out of his chair in glee. Alas, this is not likely. Cauley-Stein's two-way potential marks him as a worthy successor to Hibbert, and if the latter sticks around for another year, all the better to give the rookie a chance to contribute in a minor role.
Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin (No. 14): George has played 2-guard at times in his career, and however he and Dekker would be deployed, it seems more than workable. Dekker's athleticism and background as a defender under Bo Ryan make him a fit for the Pacers' culture under Bird and Vogel. For Indiana, if West returns, Dekker would be the fourth option on offense, which alleviates the pressure on a possible rookie starter. If he becomes a knockdown shooter from the corners, the Pacers could really come together.
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky (No. 17): If the Pacers target more of a pure shooting threat, Booker could be the guy -- even though many draft boards have him slotted a few spots lower than No. 11. In addition to the fact that Booker profiles as one of the 10 or 11 best shooters in the draft, there is the very real possibility that, in playing for the stacked Wildcats, he could have a lot more offensive utility than the early projections suggest.
It's a good draft if ...
What they must accomplish: The Pacers get a player who contributes right away. The Pacers have to feel that if Hibbert and West return, next year serves as a golden opportunity to jump back in contention in the East, in what would be the last chance for this group. Selecting a polished prospect would aid that cause.
Additional goals: Indiana also has the No. 42 pick and could target shooters and possibly an upside backup point guard at that slot.