To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Jahlil Okafor.
WARP projection: 2.1 (16th among players in top 100)
Comparables: J.J. Hickson (96.7), Derrick Favors (96.3), DeAndre Jordan (95.5), Kosta Koufos (94.2)
Strengths: Usage, 2P%, PF%
Weaknesses: Shoot, Block%
The analytics perspective
Okafor's shooting percentage is a statistical outlier. As detailed in my dialogue with Chad Ford on the Duke center, his WARP projection is low because his 2-point percentage gets regressed heavily to the mean. If instead we use his unregressed translation (57.6 percent), Okafor vaults to third among NCAA prospects behind D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns.
As it is, Okafor's projected 2-point percentage (53.5 percent) ranks fourth in my college database and is the best ever for a one-and-done prospect. While there's reason to be skeptical he'll be the league's most accurate shooter right away, Okafor has displayed a unique ability to finish around the basket and create high-percentage looks in the post. Aside from poor foul shooting, there's little question about his offensive ability. Any concerns about Okafor center on the defensive end.
From a statistical perspective, Okafor's low block rate (4.5 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) is troubling. His projected NBA block rate (2.6 percent) would put him just outside the bottom 10 among centers in my college stats database, and only a handful of players with block rates so poor in college (Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Jordan Hill, Spencer Hawes and surprisingly Andrew Bogut) have developed into NBA starting centers.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Offensively, what makes Okafor so special is that he knows who he is as a player. Blessed with a unique combination of great agility, soft hands, keen timing and fundamentally sound footwork, he operates almost exclusively in the low post. This is his playground, even though he could operate on the perimeter effectively if he chose.
In the low post, Okafor almost always catches and looks middle. By doing this he gets to read 95 percent of the floor. When he looks over his inside shoulder, Okafor can locate where his own defender is. If the defender is on the high side, Okafor can spin baseline easily because of his uncanny footwork. And if the defender plays behind, Okafor will work the ball off the dribble to the middle of the lane, where he can use his jump hook.
Hall of Fame coach John Chaney used to say: "The middle is 'we,' the baseline is 'me.' " In other words, if you look to the middle, you can do more for your team and yourself. That epitomizes the effectiveness of Okafor in the low post.
Where he will continue to improve is in his already outstanding basketball acumen. He will need to be able to recognize the different defensive schemes designed specifically to stop him. But he is a quick study.
-- Excerpted from Fran Fraschilla's Film Session on Jahlil Okafor
The front-office perspective
Okafor is, simply put, the most dominant freshman offensive big man I've ever covered. He has a polish in the low post that most NBA veterans lack. His incredible feel for the game, his advanced footwork in the post and his huge, soft hands make him an absolute monster on the block and a dangerous threat facing the basket. Okafor is shooting a crazy 76 percent at the rim this year and a super impressive 53 percent on his 2-point jumpers.
Add in crazy long arms, a strong NBA body with a wide base and a dominant drive to score the basketball and he seems like a no-brainer for the No. 1 pick. However, there are issues. Defensively he's a bit slow-footed and isn't the dominant rim protector most teams are looking for in the middle. And while he's a good rebounder, he isn't quite as dominant as you'd expect given his size. He lacks explosive leaping ability and tends to finish below the rim.
"There just aren't that many true centers in the league today that demand a double-team every time they touch the ball," one GM told ESPN.com. "Okafor's that type of player. The league has changed since the Olajuwon, Robinson and Ewing days. But it's changed because those sorts of players weren't available. Every coach in the league covets a player like Okafor. He might not be a great defender, but getting that sort of offensive production out of your center will really give whoever drafts him an advantage."
So while Okafor projects as an absolutely dominant offensive player, his lack of explosive athleticism and pedestrian defense give scouts pause. They want No. 1 picks to be dominant on both ends of the ball, and right now, Okafor isn't.
Still, he's been ranked No. 1 on our Big Board all year and holds a slight edge over Karl-Anthony Towns for the No. 1 pick. There's almost no way he falls out of the top three.
-- Chad Ford