To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Sam Dekker.
WARP Projection: 2.1 (15th among players in top 100)
Comparables: James Anderson (95.5), Wayne Ellington (92.2), Terrence Ross (90.5), Chase Budinger (90.5)
Strengths: 2P%, Shooting, TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: FTA%, Rebound%, Steal%
The analytics perspective
Dekker's incredible NCAA tournament run didn't do much to change his projection, which is built on three full seasons of data and is trained to overlook outliers like Dekker's 50 percent shooting over Wisconsin's five wins (he then shot 0-of-6 in the final). Don't expect that kind of shooting in the NBA; Dekker made just 34.8 percent of 3-point attempts in his NCAA career, and shooting only scores as a strength because Dekker attempted a high number of 3s per game.
Still, Dekker always has been rated better by WARP projection until the scouting consensus caught up over the past month. He's a high-percentage 2-point shooter for a perimeter player (63.9 percent this season, 59.1 percent career) and an efficient player because he turns the ball over so rarely -- just 7.3 percent of his plays this season ended in turnovers.
Projecting Dekker to the NBA is a tad tricky because there are so few good comparisons for him. Most small forwards who enter the league are either floor stretchers or elite athletes, and Dekker doesn't fall into either of those groups (he's a below-average rebounder for a small forward, and his steal rate was troublingly low in Bo Ryan's conservative defense). If he makes it as a pro -- and his unorthodox strengths suggest he can -- Dekker will create a new mold all his own.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
At Wisconsin, the 6-foot-9 Dekker was a very good player in a system that was designed to exploit his strengths. He posted smaller players and took bigger players off the dribble away from the basket.
In the NBA, Dekker is likely to spend much of his time at small forward where he will see better athletes night in and night out in the NBA, and that will be his biggest challenge. With many teams going to smaller lineups during parts of games, he will find himself playing some power forwards as well.
Also, where will Dekker hang his hat offensively in the NBA? If it is as a deep shooter, he'll have to improve a shooting stroke -- he made 35 percent of his career 3s at Wisconsin. And, he was just a 69 percent free throw shooter during his Badgers career. If he shows that he can make shots for teams in workouts, it will help his draft stock.
As a small forward, Dekker will have to improve his one-on-one game. He has shown that he can attack the basket in straight line drives, but much of his effective one-on-one game was a result of attacking bigger, slower defenders in college. His ability to create his own shot will come with improved ballhandling skills.
While he made 75 percent of his shots at the rim, it is hard to imagine that he'll be able to consistently score over length in the NBA. Much of his offense at the basket came from post up mismatches exploited adroitly by coach Bo Ryan. He also led the Badgers with 29 put-back baskets this season, which speaks, in part, to Dekker's effort level.
Defensively, Dekker, like most rookies, will be challenged. He will find himself guarding quick, athletic players at the small forward position. And, at 220 pounds, there will a limited percentage of power forwards he will be able to defend.
Coming out of a winning system at Wisconsin and playing for a coach who preached team basketball and fundamentals will be intangibles that will only help Dekker. But ultimately his success as an NBA player will be in carving out one superior skill that will help a team. That's the question that needs to be answered.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Dekker has been a favorite of the analytics crowd since his freshman season and has won over plenty of traditional scouts along the way. Blessed with size, toughness, very good athleticism and a complete skill set that allows him to do damage on the perimeter and in the paint, Dekker is one of the more complete prospects in the draft.
His coming out party at the LeBron Camp this summer was muted somewhat by early season injuries and inconsistency. Dekker sometimes looked the part of a lottery pick and sometimes he didn't look like he'd make the league at all.
His strong play in the NCAA Tournament has clearly helped his draft stock. He started the season ranked at No. 18 on our Big Board and slid as low as No. 25 on our last Big Board before the tournament. But his sweet shooting (a major question mark for scouts) and swagger in the tournament has given scouts a glimpse of what Dekker could be if he reaches his ceiling -- a devastating forward who can guard and score against just about anyone. If he has great workouts, you should see Dekker land somewhere in the No. 13 to No. 20 range.
"I saw him at LeBron," one scout said. "And I thought he was the best kid out there. He's been injured some this year. Wisconsin's system doesn't always use him the right way. He isn't free to just attack which is when I love him best. That kid you saw in the tournament? That's the kid we saw at LeBron and I think it's who he is. I like him better than Kelly Oubre Jr. or Stanley Johnson. I'd take him in the lottery for sure. Maybe the top 10."
-- Chad Ford