To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Willie Cauley-Stein.
WARP Projection: 1.2 (37th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Solomon Alabi (94.7), Larry Sanders (93.6), Jason Thompson (92.6), Kyle O'Quinn (92.5)
Strengths: 2P%, Steal%
Weaknesses: Usage, Shooting, Rebound%
The analytics perspective
Cauley-Stein's statistics suggest he's going to be an outstanding NBA defender. He joins five predecessors in my college database (including fellow Wildcats Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel) who projected to have a steal rate better than 1.5 percent and a block rate better than 4.0 percent. The one concern about Cauley-Stein at the defensive end is his rebounding. The only 7-footer in my database with a lower projected defensive rebound rate was Cody Zeller.
On offense, Cauley-Stein projects as a low-usage, high-efficiency role player. He shot 59.3 percent from the field in his Kentucky career, but he never used plays at an above-average rate. Cauley-Stein's biggest offensive development over the course of his career came at the free throw line. He went from 37.2 percent in 86 attempts as a freshman, which invited intentional fouls, to a respectable 61.7 percent in 128 attempts as a junior.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
The NBA is a league of specialists.
There are 25 or so great multi-skilled players in the league, commonly known as the superstars. Everyone else is a role player (that is not meant to be a condemnation).
There are great players in the NBA who do one or two things well enough to be thought of as stars or, at worst, very good NBA players. Kyle Korver is one of the league's best shooters. The Grizzlies' Tony Allen has carved out a 12-year NBA career as an elite wing defender.
To be effective in a meaningful NBA game, a player has to be very good at something.
Which gets us to Cauley-Stein. His stock has risen this season in part because many NBA teams see an elite athlete with 7-foot size, a 7-2 wingspan and the agility to be an excellent defensive big man who can guard multiple positions and in multiple defensive schemes. In short, he is a defensive playmaker.
Though not exactly the same body type, Cauley-Stein can look to guys like DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler and Andre Drummond, all of whom have become dominant defensive players in the NBA. Cauley-Stein has a chance to affect the game on that end of the court the way they have.
Few big men come into the NBA with Cauley-Stein's ridiculous athleticism. He has had so many jaw-dropping plays this season that they are nearly too numerous to catalog.
Although Cauley-Stein's block rate of 7.1 percent (7.1 blocks per 100 2-point field goal attempts) is lower than teammate Karl-Anthony Towns' 11 percent, he has all the shot-blocking attributes that someone with his size and athleticism should possess. Plus, Cauley-Stein did not have to do all of the rim-protecting himself. Kentucky coach John Calipari at times used Cauley-Stein as a perimeter stopper. Blanketing prolific perimeter scorers added to his mystique among NBA evaluators.
In an NBA game, much of Cauley-Stein's athleticism will manifest itself in defending screen-and-roll situations. Most NBA teams rely on multiple defensive coverages depending on the skills of the ball handler and the screener. He should be right at home.
He will be able to switch to smaller players, especially at the end of the shot clock, "hedge hard" and prevent the ball handler from attacking the basket, or he can "hedge flat or soft," keeping himself closer to the basket. This will make his team's defense more versatile with him on the floor.
One area of concern I have for Cauley-Stein is in defending big, physical players in post-up situations. If he plays early in his NBA career, teams will go at him immediately, and he will need to learn to stand his ground, play with leverage and use his quickness to do his work early inside.
Right now, Cauley-Stein's offense consists mainly of rim-to-rim runs in transition, dump-off dunks off guard penetration, and offensive rebound putbacks. As expected, he makes 73 percent of these at-the-rim shots, according to hoop-math.com.
And while he has shown a willingness to shoot a midrange jump shot, it will not initially be high on the list of priorities for the NBA team that drafts him. He made 33 percent of his 2-point jump shots this season.
Initially, Cauley-Stein will put the most pressure on a defense via his ability to run the floor. If he runs hard, the D's recovery to the lane must keep him from scoring at the rim, and that will open up scoring opportunities for his teammates who fill the lanes, space the floor and spot up at the 3-point line.
One thing that Cauley-Stein will find in the NBA is more space offensively. And he will have more offensive talent around him, especially on the perimeter. That means that because his other teammates' offense will need to be accounted for, scoring opportunities will manifest for him.
When he learns the nuances of the NBA screen-and-roll game, he should develop into a very good rolling finisher at the rim. According to Synergy, he has been involved in very few of those plays this season.
Offensive rebounding should also become a strength for Cauley-Stein. While his body type will be problematic in terms of banging with more physical post players, his energy and motor have revved higher for the Wildcats this season than in his first two years. More importantly, he is a quick "second jumper" with impressive agility for his size.
There have been questions in the past about how much Cauley-Stein loves the game and about his maturity. And while NBA teams will be studying those aspects closely, most of those questions have been answered this season at Kentucky.
Last season, he was projected as a first-round pick even after he fractured his left ankle in the NCAA tournament. The injury required surgery and a lengthy recovery. In eschewing the NBA draft, he has returned to become one of the most dominant players in college basketball and his name has even been mentioned in the national player of the year discussion.
Playing on a stacked Kentucky team has allowed Cauley-Stein to play the role that he will eventually have in the NBA. He has sacrificed his ego by giving up offensive opportunities but has helped lead the Wildcats to one of the most dominant defensive seasons in college basketball history.
Sacrificing that ego as an NBA rookie and knowing his role should make his adjustment to the league a little smoother than most.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Cauley-Stein has been firmly on the NBA radar since he began his freshman season at Kentucky. His physical attributes -- elite length and size for his position combined with a rare fluidity and explosiveness for a 7-footer -- have always been his selling points. There are few 7-footers in the world who possess his combination of quickness and explosive leaping ability.
As a basketball prospect, he's been a major work in progress. Offensively, he's still very raw. He's added a little midrange jumper and has improved his post game, but he doesn't project as a good scorer at the next level. Scouts wouldn't be shocked if he didn't average 10 PPG for his career. However, he's become the most dangerous defensive weapon in the country -- the rare player who can defend all five positions on the floor at an elite level. That's his appeal.
There are still questions about Cauley-Stein's focus, his commitment to the game, and whether he'll be able to score enough to justify such a high pick. But his defensive potential is so enticing that he should find himself drafted in the 6-10 range.
-- Chad Ford