To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at D'Angelo Russell.
WARP Projection: 2.9 (2nd among players in the top 100)
Comparables: Brandon Knight (92.0), Bradley Beal (91.8), Xavier Henry (90.8), Jerryd Bayless (90.8)
Strengths: Usage, Shooting, Rebound%, Assist%
Weaknesses: 2P%, FTA%
The analytics perspective
Russell tops all NCAA prospects in projected WARP, with one of the 10 best projections for any freshman in my database back through 2003. His strength is his versatility. Per Sports-Reference.com, Russell is the only major-conference freshman to average at least five rebounds and five assists per game since 2009-10. (D.J. Cooper did so as a mid-major freshman.) Russell's statistics suggest he should be able to play point guard in the NBA. In fact, his projected assist rate would put him in the top 25 percent of all point guards in my database.
At first, Russell might not be an efficient scorer. The lone red flag in his stats is middling accuracy from inside the arc (47.9 percent). And unlike James Harden, to whom he's frequently compared, Russell is below average at getting to the line, so he'll have to shoot a high percentage from 3-point range to maintain a solid true shooting percentage. Of course, Russell is barely 19, so in time he should develop into a well-rounded scoring threat who can also make opponents pay as a passer.
The biggest challenge might be finding a good statistical comparison for Russell. Since Harden was a different player in college -- Harden got to the line more frequently and had a better steal rate, but did not hand out assists nearly as frequently -- nobody is particularly close at the same age. Taking out age as a factor, Russell scores as most similar to Damian Lillard (96.0).
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Ohio State's Russell may be the most skilled player in June's NBA draft. But it's unlikely that the 19-year-old will be the first pick, even if the NBA has become more and more about 3-point shots, layups and free throws -- and he happens to facilitate all three with his shooting and passing.
At 6-foot-5 and armed with a 6-9 wing span, Russell has a unique ability to control a college basketball game with his scoring, passing, basketball intelligence and leadership. But most impressive is that he already possesses the poise and countenance of a 10-year NBA veteran.
Virtually everything the left-handed Russell accomplished for Ohio State this season was done with great efficiency. In fact, he made spectacular plays look simple and made simple plays, from a coach's perspective, look spectacular.
Let's start with his passing. Although Russell was the leading freshman scorer in the country at 19.3 points per game, his incredible vision and confidence to throw passes into tight spots impress me the most (he averaged 5.0 assists).
Russell reminds me of something I used to tell my teams: "Great passers throw passes to teammates who often don't even realize that they are open." So many times this past season he gifted teammates easy scoring opportunities with his passing.
Hall of Fame coach Pete Carril used to say, "The quality of your shots is directly related to the quality of your passes." In this regard, Russell delivers even the simple fundamental pass to an open teammate's shooting pocket on time and on target. There's no wasted movement.
In addition to Russell's passing, he is a prolific scorer and an outstanding shooter with NBA range. He has an effortless shooting stroke with great economy of movement. In his lone Buckeyes season, he shot 41 percent from the 3-point line. But most impressive to me is his accuracy from behind the arc while on the move in the open court. He has been just as accurate in transition as he has been in the half court, shooting 43 percent in fast-break situations.
Russell is not a "one-armed bandit," but his tendency as a young player is to drive right to a pull-up jump shot or drive left (his strength) to get to the rim or shoot his pull-up jumper. However, he is further along in the development of his "weak" hand than most NBA prospects at his age.
Early in the Buckeyes' season, utilizing Russell in screen-and-rolls was not a huge part of their offensive strategy. But that changed; he wound up utilizing 25 percent of his own possessions in the screen-and-roll game and was in the top 10 percent in the country in efficiency, according to Synergy Sports. Given his passing, ballhandling, basketball acumen, size and shooting ability, this should become a major strength once he gains experience in the NBA.
There is only one area of concern for Russell, in my opinion. His athleticism is not at an elite NBA level right now -- and may never be. While he is a tall and rangy guard, he will need to find a way to defend the dynamic athletes in NBA backcourts. Staying in front of quick point guards and guarding big, physical shooting guards will be his greatest challenge early in his career.
Fortunately for him, as a 19-year-old in the league, his youth likely comes with long-term physical development. Time is on his side.
When I watched Ohio State practice in late December, I was struck by Russell's maturity and by the way he directed the practice as a player. He was in complete control without the need to show he was. That leadership style, given his basketball talent and his age, is an intangible that is hard to master.
Russell was a star shooting through college. He is off to the NBA, in part, because his production has already surpassed his promise. And his promise is sky-high.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Russell began the season as an intriguing combo guard known for his knack for scoring. With a great season, many scouts thought he could be a first-round pick. He has dramatically outperformed those early expectations to the point that he's been in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick.
Russell's elite 3-point shooting and floor vision have increased his draft stock. Russell exhibits a smooth release on his jumper and can get it off from just about anywhere on the floor. But his passing has also caught the eyes of many scouts. While he might not be a "pure" point guard, he's been the most creative passer in college basketball at times and sees the floor at an elite level.
If he projects as a point guard at the next level, then his size becomes another major plus for Russell. While he lacks elite quickness and explosion athletically, his size helps him get where he wants to on the floor. If he projects as a 2-guard, he's just average size for his position.
Overall, scouts love Russell's feel for the game and his approach. He projects as a potential dominant scorer/ball handler in the mold of James Harden. However, his lack of hyper-athleticism projects him just below the other top prospects in the draft -- Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns and Emmanuel Mudiay. Look for Russell to go in the No. 2 to No. 4 range on draft night.
"He's so smooth," one scout said of Russell. "He just knows how to play. I know there are weaknesses and I've heard some guys worry he's going to be Evan Turner. But he's such a better shooter and a more creative passer than Turner. If Turner had those two skills, he'd be an All-Star. Sometimes there's a fine line between role player and All-Star in the NBA. Russell crosses that line toward All-Star."
-- Chad Ford