To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Cameron Payne.
WARP Projection: 2.1 (17th among players in top 100)
Comparables: Devin Harris (96.2), Patrick Mills (95.4), Shane Larkin (95.4), Kemba Walker (95.0)
Strengths: Shooting, Assist%, Block%, TO%
Weaknesses: 2P%, FTA%, PF%
The analytics perspective
The modern NBA point guard needs to be a threat to score and capable of setting up his teammates, which Payne balanced as a sophomore while leading Murray State to a 29-6 season marred only by a one-point loss in the Ohio Valley championship. Per Sports-Reference.com, Payne was one of three players in the country -- and the only underclassman -- to average at least 20 points (20.1) and five assists (6.0) per game. As Payne's comparables suggest, those skills figure to translate well to the NBA.
The biggest concern about Payne is his ability to get to the basket. He rarely scored around the rim and also drew relatively few fouls, which may be needed to bolster his efficiency as he develops a 3-point shot. (Payne hit 37.7 percent of his 3s as a sophomore last season and 35.9 percent overall). He'll certainly be facing bigger rim protectors in the pros, though a well-spaced floor should play to Payne's strengths.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
If there is a comparison for Murray State's 6-foot-2 sophomore, for me it is the Pacers' George Hill, who entered the NBA draft out of IUPUI in 2008. Hill, taken with the 26th pick in that draft by the San Antonio Spurs, was a ball-dominant scoring point guard who was also an outstanding outside shooter in college. The latter part of the first round is where I would project Payne, like Hill, to be selected in this draft.
Neither Payne nor Hill would be described as an explosive athlete and neither is a "jet" with the ball in his hands. Hill had a better ability to get to the rim, shooting almost 250 free throws in his final college season.
Payne, on the other hand, has a deadly pull-up jump shot game, making 41 percent from beyond the arc and 48 percent inside the arc in half-court situations, according to hoop-math.com. And he has an excellent "floater game," something that will come in handy in the NBA because he won't get to the rim like he did in college.
In addition, Payne is a left-hander who plays very right-handed, shooting most of his jump shots off the dribble when he does go right. Not surprisingly, because of his reliance on that one move, he will need to develop his right-hand dribble if he is to attack NBA defenders better.
Payne's assist rate of 40 percent is the fifth best in college basketball, according to kenpom.com. This simply means that he is responsible for 40 percent of his team's assists when he is on the court. That number is understandable because Payne is a very clever passer with excellent vision and touch.
Ironically, screen-and-roll situations made up about 25 percent of Payne's individual offense this season, according to Synergy, because he was primarily a scorer. To his advantage, the Racers' offense was quick-hitting and NBA-oriented with fast "reads" for Payne to make, with and without the ball.
Because of his passing acumen, Payne has a lot of room to grow in an area of offense that is critical to NBA success for a young guard -- the screen-and-roll.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Payne didn't really start getting serious draft buzz until midseason, when Murray State went on a ridiculous 22-game win streak fueled largely by Payne's terrific play. He's a very intelligent point guard who can impact the game by getting to the line, launching 3s and threading the needle with pinpoint passes to his teammates.
As far as pure point guards go, he, Kris Dunn and Tyus Jones are the only real ones in the first round, and Payne is perhaps the best pick-and-roll guard in the draft. Payne is very quick in the open court, is an improving shooter with 3-point range and can rack up the steals. He needs to get stronger and continue to cut down on his turnovers. Nevertheless, scouts are really high on him at the moment, and he should have the same 14-to-22 draft range that Dunn and Jerian Grant have.
"You want a heady point guard with quickness and a feel for the game then this kid is who you want," one scout said. "He's weak and I worry a bit about how he translates from Murray State to the NBA. But so many people were worried about that with Elfrid Payton and I'm like, 'If you can play, you can play.' Payne can play. I like [Emmanuel] Mudiay better. I like [D'Angelo] Russell, though I'm not sure he's a point guard. Dunn will be bust or boom. But after those guys, I like Payne a lot."
-- Chad Ford