To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Montrezl Harrell.
WARP Projection: 0.8 (48th among top 100)
Comparables: LaMarcus Aldridge (95.7), D.J. White (95.6), Quincy Acy (95.1), Patrick Patterson (92.9)
Strengths: 2P%, TO%, PF%
Weaknesses: Usage, Shooting, FTA%, Rebound%
The analytics perspective
After making a big jump between his first year on campus and his second, Harrell was unable to take another step forward in year three. His stats regressed slightly pretty much across the board, leaving Harrell relatively ineffective for an upperclassman projected in the first round. First, the good: Harrell is a terrific finisher who made an even 60 percent of his 2-pointers in his college career. It's easy to project him as a roll man in the NBA, capable of finishing lobs above the rim. He's also capable of creating his own offense off second chances.
Harrell will need to be involved offensively because he's not going to space the floor. He shot 37 3-pointers as a junior but made them at just a 24.3 percent clip, and his 53.3 percent career free throw shooting doesn't offer much hope for further development as a jump shooter (though Harrell did improve to 59.7 percent this season). So much for the LaMarcus Aldridge comparison. Quincy Acy, another undersized post player who's made a career off energy, is a better role model for Harrell's NBA career.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Harrell plays with high energy. He will have to if he wants to succeed in the NBA because, at 6-foot-7, he will be an athletic but undersized and underskilled power forward in the league.
Harrell would be best to pattern his game after Denver's Kenneth Faried, who has had success because he understands playing hard is a skill. Faried, however, averaged more than 12 rebounds a game during his Morehead State career, including a senior season when he averaged almost 15 rebounds a game. Harrell, on the other hand, has averaged only seven rebounds a game during his three seasons at Louisville.
While Harrell's rebounding numbers should be adjusted for a higher level of competition than Faried played at, it should be noted that this season his Offensive Rebound Rate ranked 274th in the country and his Defensive Rebound Rate was 248th best. Both are pedestrian numbers for someone with a reputation for having a high motor.
While Harrell made nearly 80 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court situations, many came on rebound putbacks and dump-offs for dunks off guard penetration. But, at the moment, he does not possess a low-post move that can be counted on. In fact, there are many times when he struggles to score over length. Kentucky has NBA length on its front line and Harrell was an ineffective 4-for-7 inside the arc in that matchup in December, finishing with nine points.
Fortunately, Harrell is not afraid of contact, getting himself to the line almost 200 times this season. This is one of the ways he can use his energy and 243-pound frame.
During his Louisville career, Harrell has tried to show he can shoot a face-up jump shot. This season he shot 156 midrange jump shots, connecting on 36 percent of them. It is not a strength at the moment, but there is hope he can improve on that number.
Ultimately, Harrell's game will not scream out "stardom" in the NBA, but there is a place for someone with his combination of athleticism, strength and intensity.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Say this about Harrell: He's been very consistent when it comes to his draft stock. He's been ranked in the late lottery to mid-first round since his freshman year. He's shown solid improvement as a sophomore and as a junior -- but not enough to make a major dent in his draft ranking.
Some of that is attributed to Harrell's weaknesses. He lacks elite size for his position, and while he's shown major improvements offensively, he's still not a polished offensive player by any means. Both of those weaknesses really keep Harrell out of the discussion for a top-10 pick.
However, his strengths -- elite athleticism, length, an NBA body and a terrific motor -- have also kept him strongly in the mix for a first-round selection despite his weaknesses. While most scouts don't project him as an All-Star type of project, many believe he could be a terrific rotation player on a good team. The sort of player who contributes with hustle and toughness on both ends of the floor.
Harrell's last audition in the NCAA tournament was a mixed bag but ended on a sour note; after starting the first half against Michigan State going 6-for-7 from the field, he ended up shooting 0-for-5 in the second half and overtime and looked completely out of gas. It wasn't the way he wanted scouts to remember him. So look for Harrell to go in the 15-to-25 range on draft night -- the high end if he comes in and dominates workouts, and the low end if he struggles.
-- Chad Ford