Ford's Top 100 | Big Board
With the nonconference schedules behind them and conference play coming up, it's time to update our NBA prospect positional rankings heading into the new year. While the top remains fairly steady, there has been some major movement as we get further into the ranks.
The clearest trend so far this season? This is a terrific draft for big men, many of whom are potential lottery picks. Small forward is also a strong position this season. The real drop-off is in the backcourt. There are a couple of interesting point guard prospects but that's about it. If you are looking for perimeter help, this draft isn't for you.
Here's a rank of the top 10 prospects at each position, based on my conversations with dozens of NBA scouts and GMs. (Ranks that follow player listings correspond to their Top 100 position.)
Centers
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, Fr. (1)
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, Fr. (3)
3. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, Jr. (8)
4. Jakob Poeltl, Utah, Fr. (14)
5. Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, Sr. (16)
6. Robert Upshaw, Washington, So. (29)
7. Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, So. (31)
8. Amida Brimah, UConn, So. (38)
9. Damian Jones, Vanderbilt, So. (39)
10. Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina, So. (59)
Other notable C prospects: Guillermo Hernangomez, Spain; Marko Arapovic, Croatia; Moussa Diagne, Senegal; Isaac Haas, Purdue; Ilimane Diop, France; Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona; Yankuba Sima, Spain; A.J. Hammons, Purdue; Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville; Nikola Milutinov, Serbia; Josh Smith, Georgetown
We have nine centers ranked as potential first-rounders and five of them as potential lottery picks. That's extremely rare. This may be the best draft for centers we've seen in a decade.
Okafor and Towns are duking it out for the No. 1 pick. While Okafor looks like the better offensive talent, Towns has been a monster defensively and offers higher upside. Okafor is in the lead at the moment, but Towns is still very much in the conversation.
Cauley-Stein has taken another step toward guaranteeing a slot in the top 10. While he lacks offensive prowess, he's the most versatile defensive big man scouts have seen in a long time. He has the ability to guard all five positions on the floor.
Poeltl is another player whose defense is ahead of his offense right now. But every scout who has watched him play thinks he will be a starting big man in the NBA someday. Kaminsky is the other player who has a chance to crack the lottery. He's different from any other big on this board. His ability to stretch the floor is special. He might end up being a stretch-4 in the NBA.
There's a bit of a scrum here from positions No. 6 through No. 9. Upshaw has been a fast riser on the board. He's big, athletic and he's putting up impressive numbers coming off the bench for Washington. He actually leads every center in PER. Questions about his off-court issues and motivation will rise come draft time, but if he continues playing like this all season, he's going to keep moving up the board.
Johnson gets a bit lost at Kentucky playing behind Towns and Cauley-Stein, but he has been very solid and projects as a nice backup big who could start on some NBA teams. Brimah is very raw and can struggle when facing legit bigs (as we saw against Duke), but clearly has NBA size and talent. Jones may be the most underrated of the group. He hasn't played against elite talent but he'll get a chance to prove himself against Kentucky on Jan. 20. Meeks ends the list. He's been highly efficient for the Tar Heels, but lacks ideal size or athleticism for the position.
Power forwards
1. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 19 years old (4)
2. Kevon Looney, UCLA, Fr. (5)
3. Myles Turner, Texas, Fr. (7)
4. Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, Jr. (15)
5. Chris McCullough, Syracuse, Fr. (17)
6. Trey Lyles, Kentucky, Fr. (18)
7. Cliff Alexander, Kansas, Fr. (22)
8. Bobby Portis, Arkansas, So. (28)
9. Christian Wood, UNLV, So. (32)
10. Chris Walker, Florida, So. (33)
Other notable PF prospects: Egemen Guven, Turkey; Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga; Brice Johnson, North Carolina; Jarell Martin, LSU; Marcus Lee, Kentucky; Josh Scott, Colorado; Jordan Mickey, LSU; Alan Williams; UC Santa Barbara; Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse; Chris Obekpa, St. John's; Rasmus Larsen, Denmark; Brandon Ashley, Arizona; Mike Tobey, Virginia; Mouhammadou Jaiteh, France
Similar to the centers, we have 10 power forwards ranked as potential first-round picks and another four that project as lottery picks. It's possible that 19 of the 30 players taken in the first round this year could be bigs. That's incredible and one of the reasons NBA GMs are getting more and more bullish about the draft.
Porzingis, Looney and Turner are all versatile, athletic bigs who can play and defend multiple positions on the floor. Porzingis seems to have the slight edge among scouts, but a few have Looney or Turner rated higher. All three have a chance to be special, though all three are still works in progress.
Harrell is one of the most consistent players we've ever had on our Big Board. He has ranked somewhere in the 13 to 18 range ever since his freshman year. He brings energy, toughness and has improved every year. If he were two or three inches taller, he'd be much, much higher. But as the game versus Kentucky showed, he may have issues with length in the paint.
McCullough, Lyles and Alexander are the next group of freshmen. None of them are ready for the NBA, but all have tantalizing upside. They are all totally different. McCullough is the best shot-blocker of the group and shows the ability to defend multiple positions. His offense has stagnated of late, but the real interest among scouts is his defensive potential. Lyles is the most offensively skilled of the group, and maybe of the entire board. But his lack of elite athleticism limits his ceiling a bit. Alexander has the body of an NBA veteran and plays hard, but developmentally he's got a long way to go. All three could end up going in the back end of the lottery based on potential or could slide into the late first round.
Wood, Portis and Walker are all sophomores. Portis has steadily improved on a solid freshman season but lacks the wow factor of Wood or Walker; he's a well-rounded power forward who does many things well, but doesn't excel at any one thing. Wood is having a breakout season for UNLV. His athleticism and ability to rebound and block shots has vaulted him from outside the Top 100 in July into a possible first-round pick. However, he's a major project for whomever drafts him. Walker is still primarily living off his rep coming out of high school. He's an elite athlete who hasn't found his game yet. He's probably better off going back to school for another year, but should he declare, someone could take a flier on him in the late first round.
Small forwards
1. Justise Winslow, Duke, Fr. (6)
2. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, Fr. (9)
3. Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 19 years old(10)
4. Stanley Johnson, Arizona, Fr. (11)
5. Caris LeVert, Michigan, Jr. (19)
6. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, Jr. (25)
7. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona, So. (26)
8. Justin Anderson, Virginia, Jr., (27)
9. Justin Jackson, North Carolina, Fr., (37)
10. Troy Williams, Indiana, So. (42)
Other notable SF prospects: Jake Layman, Maryland; Branden Dawson, Michigan State; Alex Poythress, Kentucky; Nedim Buza, Bosnia; J.P. Tokoto, North Carolina; Jonathan Holmes, Texas; Daniel Hamilton, UConn; Theo Pinson, North Carolina; Devin Robinson, Florida; Georges Niang, Iowa State; Malik Pope, San Diego State; Danuel House, Texas A&M; Le'Bryan Nash, Oklahoma State; Winston Shepard, San Diego State
This is another strong group from Nos. 1 through 10. Winslow, Oubre, Hezonja and Johnson are really in a scrum to see who goes first among them. Every NBA front office appears to have a different opinion. Winslow has the most votes right now but it's by a thin margin. Johnson has quickly taken over as the alpha dog at Arizona. Hezonja is finally getting meaningful minutes for FC Barcelona and proving that he's worth the hype we've given him the past few years. Oubre started the season in Bill Self's dog house but is now in the starting five and over the past three games he's been the best player on the floor for KU. He could easily end up as the first wing off the board.
There's also a scrum for the next wings off the board between LeVert, Dekker, Hollis-Jefferson and Anderson. LeVert is the best passer of the group, Dekker has grit and toughness scouts love, Hollis-Jefferson is the best defender and Anderson does a little bit of everything and is currently having the best season of the group. Again, scouts are pretty split on who is the best prospect. This order will likely fluctuate as we get into conference play.
Jackson was ranked higher at the beginning of the season and has a lot of potential, but he may be a year away. He's struggled to break out for the Tar Heels as a freshman. And keep a close eye on Williams. He's having a very solid sophomore year and Fran Fraschilla's comp to him as a young Paul George isn't crazy. He can't shoot, which is an issue, but he's a crazy athlete. If he can dominate in Big Ten play and start showing more range on his jumper, he can move up another 15 to 20 spots.
Shooting guards
1. R.J. Hunter, Georgia State, Jr. (13)
2. Devin Booker, Kentucky, Fr. (35)
3. Ron Baker, Wichita State, Jr. (36)
4. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV, Fr. (40)
5. Marc Garcia, Spain, 18 yrs. (45)
6. Jabari Bird, Cal, So. (46)
7. Michael Qualls, Arkansas, So. (49)
8. James Blackmon Jr., Indiana, Fr. (50)
9. Norman Powell, UCLA, Sr. (52)
10. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, Jr. (53)
Other notable SG prospects: Zak Irvin, Michigan; Wayne Selden, Kansas; E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island; Aaron Harrison, Kentucky; Michael Frazier II, Florida; Terran Petteway, Nebraska; Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina; Treveon Graham, VCU; Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall; Marcus Foster, Kansas State; Kellen Dunham, Butler; Dezmine Wells, Maryland; Levi Randolph, Alabama, Wayne Blackshear, Louisville; Tyler Haws, BYU; Joseph Young, Oregon; Anthony Brown, Stanford
This position is a mess. There just aren't a lot of players who are screaming "NBA starter" here. It's quite possible that just one shooting guard could go in the first round. Teams are desperate for shooting and that is the one thing in common with the top three players on the list. Hunter draws comps to a young Klay Thompson, though he has struggled with his jumper this season as defenses key in on him (he's shooting just 31 percent from 3-point range). Booker is the best shooter on UK and may be the best shooter in the draft. Baker also has been playing really well this season, though scouts worry he'll be limited defensively when having to guard NBA 2s.
Vaughn may be the best pure scorer of the group, but he lacks the jump shot and shot selection to really move up in the rankings. Bird has been battling injuries all season. Qualls is quietly having a breakout sophomore campaign and could end up sneaking into the first round if he can keep shooting the basketball well. He and Powell are the most athletic of this group. Blackmon Jr. has been shooting the lights out for Indiana, but he lacks size and athleticism for his position.
Powell got off to a great start to the season before hitting a horrific shooting slump the past three games. His play against Kentucky really hurt his draft stock. Hield was thought of as a potential first-rounder before the season but has lacked the efficiency so far to crack the top 30.
Point guards
1. Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 19 years old (2)
2. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, Fr. (12)
3. Tyrone Wallace, Cal, Jr. (20)
4. Delon Wright, Utah, Sr. (21)
5. Tyus Jones, Duke, Fr. (23)
6. Terry Rozier, Louisville, So. (24)
7. Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, Sr. (30)
8. Isaiah Taylor, Texas, So. (47)
9. Tyler Ulis, Kentucky, Fr. (48)
10. Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame, So. (52)
Other notable PG prospects: Melo Trimble, Maryland; Marcus Paige, North Carolina; Cedi Osman, Macedonia; Andrew Harrison, Kentucky; Gary Payton II, Oregon State; Kenan Sipahi, Kosovo, Kenneth Smith, Louisiana Tech; Anthony Barber, NC State; Nigel Williams-Goss, Washington; Keifer Sykes, Green Bay; Quinn Cook, Duke; Juwan Staten, West Virginia; Guillem Vives, Spain; Yogi Ferrell, Indiana; Fred VanVleet, Wichita State; Kasey Hill, Florida; Shannon Scott, Ohio State; Kyle Collinsworth, BYU; Nate Mason, Minnesota
Mudiay is far and away the best point guard prospect of the group. He hasn't played for more than a month in China (first because of an ankle injury and then because his team brought in veteran Will Bynum to take his spot) and word is he may pull a Dante Exum and just spend the rest of the season training and prepping for the draft. It won't matter. His draft stock is pretty set as a top-five pick.
Russell plays shooting guard for Ohio State but I recently changed him to point guard after virtually every scout I spoke with said they are evaluating him as a point guard at the next level. He's been one of the most consistent freshmen in the country and, at 6-foot-5 with deep range on his jumper, could be a very intriguing prospect.
Wallace is the player who is charging up the boards. He's big, athletic and shooting the lights out while running Cal's offense. After two pretty pedestrian years at Cal, I'm not sure there's been a more improved player. Scouts are wondering if he'll revert back to the mean once he gets into Pac-12 play. I doubt it, as he looks like the real deal.
Jones, Ulis and Jackson are the only pure point guards on the list. While scouts prefer Jones because he has three inches on Ulis, Ulis is coming on strong. His toughness and shooting ability may allow him to overcome his lack of height. Jackson has been sharing point guard duties with Grant, but he's having an excellent season in his own right. He's a pure point guard with great quickness and athleticism. And he's been shooting the lights out this season. He's a major sleeper to watch.
Rozier was ranked higher after a strong performance in the summer. He has been good for Louisville but hasn't shown much in the way of point guard skills, which scares scouts. He's pretty undersized to play the 2 in the NBA.
Both Wright and Grant are 22-year-old seniors who have to overcome the NBA age bias against them. Both are having years worthy of player of the year honors. Both have NBA size and athleticism. They are just "old" in terms of being NBA prospects. It will be interesting to see how that ultimately affects their draft stock as you can argue that they are having the two best seasons of anyone on this list.
Lastly, Taylor has been battling injuries all season but shows a nice blend of scoring and passing at the point guard position.