Before future NBA prospects ever set foot on a college campus, they are compared to current stars. Not only do such comparisons give us a better idea of how these rising prospects play currently, they can help shed light on how they will perform at the next level. The challenge is making the comparisons without being influenced by visual cues. That's where my numbers come in.
Similarity scores are at the heart of my SCHOENE projection system, and I've used the same method to compare players in the draft to their professional counterparts based on 13 categories, including height and weight (from the DraftExpress measurement database).
There are a couple of limitations to this approach. First, there's a small pool of draft prospects. In the NBA, SCHOENE picks among thousands of players for comparisons. My college database contains just 438 players dating back to 2003. Second, players are only compared to others within six months of age at the point they enter the draft, so no matter how similar a freshman's game might be to a senior's, they won't come up as a comparison. (I have included some possible outlying matches below as appropriate.)
As a result, some comparisons are better than others. Similarity is rated on a scale that maxes out at 100. A similarity score of 95 or higher is a good match, and anything below 90 is a bit of a stretch. Keep that in mind as I go through the top four comparisons for each player in Chad Ford's top 30.
1. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Tobias Harris (98.0), Luol Deng (97.8), Maurice Harkless (97.7), Quincy Miller (97.2)
There's more star power, including Carmelo Anthony, lower in Wiggins' top 10 comps. However, Wiggins being similar to so many players is in itself an indication he's not a unique prospect. Paul George, the most popular subjective comparison for Wiggins, was slightly too old to qualify for Wiggins' list after his sophomore season but had a score of just 90.0 anyway, in large part because of his superior steal rate.
2. Jabari Parker, Duke
Carmelo Anthony (96.7), Luol Deng (95.7), Michael Beasley (95.0), Kevin Durant (95.0)
Ammo here for the Parker-Anthony comparisons. The nine players most similar to Parker were all lottery picks, including four that went either first or second.
3. Dante Exum, Australia
Kyrie Irving (92.3), Jrue Holiday (88.9), Javaris Crittenton (86.3), Bradley Beal (83.9)
Exum's youth limits the size of his similarity pool, but his best scores -- based on his translated performance in the FIBA U-19 World Championship last summer -- are point guards, which is notable for those wondering where he will end up.
4. Joel Embiid, Kansas
Patrick O'Bryant (96.1), Sean Williams (95.7), Daniel Orton (93.7), Robin Lopez (93.2)
Few low-post scorers of Embiid's ability have entered the league in the period covered by my database. Layne Vashro's similarity model that looks at a longer span comes up with Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon among Embiid's comps.
5. Noah Vonleh, Indiana
Chris Bosh (97.7), Derrick Favors (97.5), Spencer Hawes (95.0), Kosta Koufos (93.8)
When I saw Vonleh play in person, I immediately thought of Bosh, so it was encouraging to see the similarity model come to the same conclusion. Favors is another one-and-done post player with more potential than he demonstrated in college.
6. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
Tyreke Evans (88.3), James Harden (87.5), Chris Paul (87.0), John Wall (86.0)
Smart is one of two first-round prospects without a match better than 90. Players with some similarity to him have been successful in the league; Evans and Dion Waiters have had the worst careers of the group.
7. Aaron Gordon, Arizona
Anthony Randolph (94.7), Thaddeus Young (94.7), Maurice Harkless (94.6), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (93.9)
While they share the ability to push the ball upcourt and find teammates as power forwards, there's little comparison between Blake Griffin's two seasons at Oklahoma and Gordon's season at Arizona. Griffin's similarity to Gordon rates at just 67.8.
8. Julius Randle, Kentucky
Al-Farouq Aminu (96.3), Spencer Hawes (96.2), J.J. Hickson (96.0), Brandon Bass (95.3)
Removing age, Randle's second-best comparison is an interesting one: David Lee (97.6). Alas, Zach Randolph predates my database.
9. Dario Saric, KK Cibona
Al Harrington (97.2), Corey Maggette (95.3), Yi Jianlian (94.8), Tobias Harris (94.6)
The similarity scores for Saric, as well as the other European prospects, are based on NBA players at the same age. Saric's projection doesn't entirely capture his unique playmaking skills, giving him comps who don't handle the ball nearly as well.
10. Gary Harris, Michigan State
Xavier Henry (96.1), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (95.8), Daniel Gibson (94.5), Jeremy Lamb (93.4)
Personally, I like Bradley Beal (94.8) as an optimistic comparison for Harris. Beal was nine months younger when he entered the NBA, however.
11. Nik Stauskas, Michigan
Allen Crabbe (96.5), Doron Lamb (94.9), Tim Hardaway Jr. (94.4), Ben McLemore (93.9)
Of players with better than 90 similarity to Stauskas, Daniel Gibson (91.6) has had the best career.
12. Doug McDermott, Creighton
Jermaine Taylor (88.8), Jon Leuer (86.2), Adam Morrison (85.5), Marcus Thornton (84.1)
Believe it or not, there's not much comparison for a four-year senior who scores with a historic combination of usage and efficiency. That includes Morrison, who had a similar usage rate but a lower true shooting percentage in college.
13. Elfrid Payton, Louisiana Lafayette
T.J. Ford (95.3), Rajon Rondo (93.9), Darius Morris (93.4), John Wall (91.5)
While Payton's projection is unimpressive, his similarity scores are much more hopeful. Other point guards with high steal, block and rebound rates in college have succeeded as pros despite their shooting woes.
14. Zach LaVine, UCLA
Avery Bradley (95.6), Cory Joseph (95.2), Bradley Beal (91.9), Quincy Miller (88.6)
Bradley has carved out a nice NBA niche, but one-and-done tweener guards drafted on potential rather than performance (a group that also includes the older Austin Rivers) don't have a great NBA track record.
15. James Young, Kentucky
Tobias Harris (90.9), Bradley Beal (89.7), Luol Deng (87.9), Maurice Harkless (87.6)
Few shooting specialists like Young leave college after just one season. Fewer yet do so after slumping from the perimeter much of the season. Four-year senior Brandon Rush (96.7 similarity entering the league) is a good example.
16. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse
Chris Paul (95.1), Rajon Rondo (93.8), Russell Westbrook (92.6), T.J. Ford (92.4)
As I explained in my discussion of Ennis with Chad Ford, point guards with high assist and steal rates and low turnover rates excel in the NBA. Whether Ennis really belongs in that group depends on how much stock you place in a steal rate compiled at the top of Syracuse's 2-3 zone.
17. Adreian Payne, Michigan State
Rob Kurz (97.5), Alexander Johnson (96.7), Hakim Warrick (94.5), Jackson Vroman (94.0)
If Payne had compiled the same stats as an underclassman, his similarity list would be more impressive. As is, most big men who stay four years (like Kurz) do so because of their physical limitations.
18. T.J. Warren, NC State
Marcus Williams (90.5), Anthony Bennett (89.6), Perry Jones (89.6), Luke Babbitt (88.9)
Warren's game, built around a heavy dose of accurate 2-point shooting, is rare for an NBA prospect. The Williams that comps as most similar is Marcus, the wing who went to Arizona and played briefly for the San Antonio Spurs, not the UConn point guard.
19. Jusuf Nurkic, KK Mega Vizura
Eddy Curry (96.5), Enes Kanter (95.2), Derrick Favors (93.9), Spencer Hawes (93.0)
A capable scorer with a low block rate for a center, Nurkic compares favorably to Curry and Kanter during their rookie seasons in the NBA. Both were top-five picks.
20. Rodney Hood, Duke
Terrence Ross (93.8), Wayne Ellington (93.8), Reggie Bullock (91.5), Tim Hardaway Jr. (90.2)
Hood's reputation is built on versatility, but because of his poor rebound, steal and block rates he compares to a number of players valuable primarily (or solely) because of their outside shooting.
21. Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee
Brandon Bass (97.7), Josh McRoberts (97.7), Charlie Villanueva (97.5), Tristan Thompson (96.3)
The classic undersized but powerful and skilled power forward, Stokes also scores as similar to the older Craig Smith (97.6) and David West (97.2).
22. Shabazz Napier, Connecticut
Chris Quinn (98.1), A.J. Price (94.2), Luke Ridnour (93.3), Matthew Dellavedova (93.1)
There aren't a ton of success stories among recent four-year point guards like Napier, but more effective players like Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks lurk a bit lower amidst Napier's similarity scores.
23. Jordan Clarkson, Missouri
Acie Law (96.3), Sonny Weems (96.0), Jordan Crawford (95.9), E'Twaun Moore (94.9)
Of Clarkson's best comps, only Crawford has yet carved out any kind of NBA career. The other three players have all rated as worse than replacement level as pros.
24. K.J. McDaniels, Clemson
Josh Childress (95.6), Antoine Wright (93.0), Justin Harper (92.6), Brandon Roy (92.3)
McDaniels and Childress share uncommon shot-blocking ability from the perimeter. Wesley Johnson (96.6, though 1.5 years older) is another member of that small fraternity.
25. P.J. Hairston, Texas Legends
Marcus Thornton (94.3), James Anderson (93.2), John Jenkins (91.8), Jodie Meeks (91.3)
Hairston could provide shooting and instant offense off the bench. His high rate of 3-point attempts and low turnover rate are also statistically notable.
26. Kyle Anderson, UCLA
Chris Singleton (93.3), D.J. Kennedy (92.3), Devin Ebanks (92.2), Earl Clark (91.8)
I expected that Anderson, a point guard in a power forward's body, would be a unique player on this list. Somehow, he gets several matches of better than 90, though none that truly capture the essence of his game. Alas, Boris Diaw isn't in the database.
27. Clint Capela, Elan Chalon
Derrick Favors (97.2), Andris Biedrins (96.3), Spencer Hawes (96.2), Darius Miles (95.8)
Another interesting name to add: Serge Ibaka, who was slightly older than Capela is now as a rookie but had a 97.6 similarity score. Capela isn't that kind of shot-blocker, nor is he likely to develop into a lethal midrange shooter, but his athleticism is similarly useful on the glass and when finishing around the basket.
28. Cleanthony Early, Wichita State
Demetris Nichols (96.4), Lazar Hayward (95.6), Erik Murphy (95.6), Brandon Rush (94.7)
Rush's excellent 2011-12 season for the Golden State Warriors is a good example of Early's 3-and-D upside. But if he struggles to shoot like Hayward, he might soon find himself out of a job.
29. Jordan Adams, UCLA
Dion Waiters (96.6), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (95.6), Otto Porter (88.8), Paul George (88.7)
All of the 10 players most similar to Adams were drafted in the top 15, which is another indication he could be a steal late in the first round.
30. Jerami Grant, Syracuse
Adonis Thomas (95.1), DeMar DeRozan (94.8), Perry Jones (93.2), Wilson Chandler (92.2)
The majority of the players most similar to Grant are regarded more highly by scouts than statistical analysts, in large part because of their low shooting percentages -- which is precisely the worry with Grant.