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Ceilings, floors for draft prospects

Hakeem Olajuwon has been cited as a high-end comparison for Joel Embiid for months. Getty Images

Everyone likes player comparisons, but they are extremely difficult to do because, well, each player is different.

After speaking to NBA guys, college coaches and watching some of these kids play hundreds of times over the years, here are our comparisons. We give you a ceiling and a floor for 28 of the top prospects available in the June 26 NBA draft.

Remember, these are high-end comparisons -- and will be extremely difficult for any of these guys to reach -- but they give you a better understanding of what type of player they might be at the next level.


Joel Embiid

High end: Hakeem Olajuwon. Though we don't know exactly how badly Embiid has injured his foot, in a vacuum, if Embiid lives up the massive potential he possesses, is an Olajuwon comparison accurate? It's a ridiculously lofty comparison that isn't really fair, since the Dream is one of the greatest big men in the history of the game, but Embiid is skilled on the offensive end and also has a chance to be a big-time presence on the defensive end. Embiid's numbers as a freshman (11.2 points per game, 8.1 rebounds per game, 2.6 blocks per game) were actually superior to Olajuwon's (8.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.5 BPG) as a freshman at the University of Houston.

Low end: Bismack Biyombo. They are different players, but Biyombo -- who was drafted seventh overall in 2011 -- has averaged 4.3 points and 4.1 rebounds in his first three seasons in the NBA. I'd be shocked if Embiid's production were comparable.

Jabari Parker

High end: Glenn Robinson. Most people go with Carmelo Anthony, but Big Dog might be a more apt comparison. They are both flat-out scorers, have similar body builds and can fill it up from all three levels: beyond the arc, midrange and also in the paint. The comparison is also valid due to their defensive deficiencies. Robinson averaged 20.7 points and 6.1 rebounds for his career.

Low end: Antoine Walker. I'm thinking more of the late-career Walker, the guy who loved to jack 3-pointers, rarely defended and was just a flat-out chucker with no conscience.

Andrew Wiggins

High end: Paul George. While he enters the NBA with far different expectations than George had, they both have tremendous athleticism, similar skill sets and body types. People also questioned their intensity, consistency and killer instinct coming out of college. George emerged as one of the NBA's top players as he concluded his fourth season in the league.

Low end: Corey Brewer. In the worst-case scenario, Wiggins should be a terrific defender who is an average offensive player, much like Brewer. This past season, Brewer averaged 12.3 points as a full-time starter in Minnesota while shooting 28 percent from beyond the arc.

Dante Exum

High end: Penny Hardaway. This is a difficult one, because Exum still remains somewhat of a mystery to most NBA execs. However, Exum is nearly as tall as Hardaway, has question marks surrounding his perimeter shot and is a guy who should be able to both score and distribute.

Low end: Avery Bradley. While he's taller than Bradley, there are questions -- as was the case with Bradley -- on whether he is a point guard or a 2-guard and whether he can make shots from long distance. Exum has the potential -- like Bradley -- to be a tremendous defender.

Julius Randle

High end: Zach Randolph. This is the most common one because they are both left-handers who will rebound the ball at a high level. Randle is more explosive and will be a better defender, while Randolph is more skilled and has a better touch.

Low end: Marcus Fizer. I don't ever see this happening, but both are big, strong, physical forwards. Fizer was drafted fourth overall in 2000 out of Iowa State and averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds in a six-year NBA career.

Marcus Smart

High end: Baron Davis. Both are big, strong and tough point guards whose perimeter shots were the weakness of their games. When Davis was healthy, he was one of the best point guards in the NBA.

Low end: Jarrett Jack. He's also got a big, strong body and has had a solid career in the NBA. He's a combo guard, and some view Smart in that manner, although he's improved his court vision and floor game over the past year.

Noah Vonleh

High end: Chris Webber. Both are big, strong forwards who bring versatility to the table. Vonleh hasn't shown a ton of it yet, but he can step out and handle the ball and make shots. Webber averaged 20.7 points and 9.8 rebounds during his career.

Low end: Horace Grant. This is the comparison if Vonleh doesn't become much of a scorer. Grant was a terrific piece for a championship team and averaged 11.2 points and 8.1 rebounds in his career.

Aaron Gordon

High end: Shawn Marion. There have been comparisons to NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard as well, but Marion may be more valid, at least right now. Marion -- "The Matrix" -- was an athletic tweener forward who struggled to shoot it from deep.

Low end: Tristan Thompson. This is if Gordon doesn't improve his skill level. Thompson is a high-playing, high-character power forward who defends and rebounds.

Doug McDermott

High end: Wally Szczerbiak. They are both tremendous shooters, and they were both questioned coming into the league due to their size and athleticism. Szczerbiak wound up averaging 14.1 points in a lengthy NBA career.

Low end: Matt Bonner. At worst-case level, McDermott is a specialist like Bonner, who comes off the bench and buries shots for a team that goes deep in the postseason. But I'd be shocked if he weren't much closer to Szczerbiak than Bonner.

Nik Stauskas

High end: Klay Thompson. Both are big-time shooters who possess a high IQ and can do a little bit of everything. Thompson has averaged 17.8 points over his first three NBA seasons, which may be difficult for Stauskas to match.

Low end: J.J. Redick. Stauskas should be more than just a piece and a one-dimensional shooter such as Redick, but this is likely his floor. Redick has averaged a shade below double figures over his NBA career, but is one of the best pure long-range shooters in the league.

Gary Harris

High end: Joe Dumars. This was a tough one to come up with, because Harris is a fairly unique player. He's a smaller 2-guard who might be able to play some point in the league. Dumars was also a versatile guard who could shoot it well, get to the basket and defend.

Low end: Randy Foye. They have similar builds, both are more off-guard than point guard and both possess the ability to score from long distance and getting to the basket. Foye has averaged 11.7 points during his career.

James Young

High end: Kerry Kittles. Both are long wings who can shoot the ball. Kittles was drafted eighth overall in 1996 and had a solid, yet unspectacular, NBA career, averaging 14.3 points during seven seasons.

Low end: Brandon Rush. While Rush is more athletic, they have similar bodies, and Rush improved his long-range shot while in the NBA. He's a solid reserve who has averaged 8.3 points during his first five NBA campaigns.

Tyler Ennis

High end: Andre Miller. Neither of these two will wow you with their athleticism, but Miller has put together a solid, consistent NBA career that has spanned more than 15 seasons. He averaged 13.3 points and 6.9 assists over the course of his career.

Low end: D.J. Augustin. Augustin is coming off an impressive season in Chicago filling in for the injured Derrick Rose, but he has been a backup for much of his NBA career. A solid athlete who is reliable.

Zach LaVine

High end: Gerald Green. Both have exceptional athleticism, but it took Green time to find his niche, as he is coming off his best season as a pro, averaging 15.8 points in Phoenix. Look for LaVine to endure growing pains as well as NBA folks question his feel for the game.

Low end: Wesley Johnson. Has similar length and athleticism, and while LaVine has better ball skills, both struggle to put it on the floor and get by defenders. Both are athletic and shoot it well. Johnson has been a role player in his first four seasons in the league, averaging 8.1 points per game.

Dario Saric

High end: Detlef Schrempf. The 6-foot-9 native of Germany was drafted eighth back in 1985 and had a nice run with both Indiana and Seattle in the early to mid 1990s. He wasn't known as a shooter, but he was skilled as a passer and had a high IQ.

Low end: Omri Casspi. The 6-9 Israeli was picked 23rd back in 2009 and has had a ho-hum NBA career thus far, averaging 7.7 points in four seasons. He has started just three games over the past two seasons.

Rodney Hood

High end: Trevor Ariza. We're talking more about the 28-year-old Ariza, who averaged 14.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and shot 41 percent from beyond the arc this past season for the Wizards. Both are long, athletic and skilled.

Low end: Calbert Cheaney. The former Indiana star averaged double figures in the NBA in each of his first five seasons, but then he bounced around and was a role player the remainder of his career. Both are smooth, versatile shooters, with Hood possessing more length and size at 6-8.

T.J. Warren

High end: Paul Pierce. This is the high, high end, especially because Warren hasn't proved he can be a reliable long-range shooter. However, both have the gift of scoring, and neither is a world-class athlete.

Low end: Michael Beasley. They are both scorers who don't have elite athleticism. Beasley has struggled both on and off the court, and he barely got off the bench in the playoffs for the Heat.

Adreian Payne

High end: Rasheed Wallace. Both are skilled big men who like to step out and drill shots from beyond the arc. Wallace averaged 14.4 points and 6.7 rebounds in his lengthy NBA career and had some terrific seasons in Portland and Detroit, although he was high-maintenance.

Low end: Channing Frye. The 6-11 Arizona product is long, can step out and make shots from deep and has started 340 games in his career, but hasn't been much more than a fourth or fifth option on the floor.

Jusuf Nurkic

High end: Nikola Pekovic. Both are big, strong in-the-paint centers. Pekovic has spent four seasons in Minnesota, and has career averages of 18.5 points and 9.7 rebounds. Both are below-the-rim players.

Low end: Aaron Gray. Gray is a 7-0 270-pounder who has bounced around in the NBA since being drafted in the second round back in 2007. Gray is limited athletically and has averaged 3.4 points in his career.

Elfrid Payton

High end: Rajon Rondo. Payton is extremely fast, isn't much of a perimeter shooter and can really defend. He's also clever with the ball, like Rondo.

Low end: Darren Collison. The former UCLA point guard is extremely fast, and while he's bounced around in his five seasons in the league, he's averaged double figures in points each season. He backed up Chris Paul this past season with the Clippers.

P.J. Hairston

High end: John Salmons. This one may seem a little low, but Salmons was a big-time perimeter shooter with size who averaged 18.3 points in 2008-09, 15.4 points in 2009-10 and 14 points in 2010-11.

Low end: Jodie Meeks. He can flat-out shoot the ball from downtown, and that's what Hairston will be able to do. Meeks has been primarily a role guy, but he excelled this past season with a decimated Lakers team.

Kyle Anderson

High-end: Hedo Turkoglu. Both have size and can really pass the ball. Anderson will be more of a point forward in the NBA, while Hedo is a better athlete and came into the league as a far superior defender.

Low end: Luke Walton. Anderson is an extremely unique player, but both he and Walton have similar size, athleticism and feel for the game.

Shabazz Napier

High end: Chauncey Billups. Napier isn't as big as Billups, but he is actually a more advanced perimeter shooter at the same stage. Both are scoring point guards who bring a toughness to the table.

Low end: Ramon Sessions. He's been a solid backup in the league, for the most part, throughout his career.

Jordan Clarkson

High end: Jeff Teague. Clarkson is bigger than Teague, but he's got tremendous speed and many question his perimeter shot. Teague averaged 16.5 points and 6.7 assists in his fifth NBA season with the Hawks.

Low end: Jerryd Bayless. He's caught in between positions, not a point guard and not a shooter. That's the question with Clarkson.

Mitch McGary

High end: Kenneth Faried. McGary is a little bigger, but the comparisons are there because both can be terrific rebounders due to their high motor. Neither is overly skilled.

Low end: Mark Madsen. The Mad Dog lasted nearly a decade in the NBA due to his ability to come in, throw his body around and just play with intensity. He averaged 2.2 points and 2.6 boards in his career.

Cleanthony Early

High end: Cliff Robinson. They can both score inside and out. Robinson was a little taller, and he averaged 14.2 points in a lengthy NBA career.

Low end: Al Thornton. They are both 6-7, and while Thornton is a little more athletic, Early is the better shooter. Thornton bounced around the NBA for a few years after being drafted 14th in 2007, but hasn't been in the league for a while.

K.J. McDaniels

High end: Andre Iguodala. McDaniels is a terrific athlete like Iggy, and he has a chance to be a high-level defender. Both are mediocre perimeter shooters.

Low end: DeMarre Carroll. Carroll is coming off a nice campaign with Atlanta, but he's been a reserve who brings athleticism and energy off the bench for most of his career. He thrives in transition and getting to the basket, but has a questionable shot.

Jordan Adams

High end: James Harden. Adams isn't as athletic as Harden, but he uses angles like the Rockets star, and he just has a knack for scoring. This is an extremely high-end comp.

Low end: Wayne Ellington. He was picked at the end of the 2009 draft and has been a reserve for most of his career as a guy who can make shots. Adams has a more well-rounded offensive game.