Big Board: Noel remains No. 1

The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight narrowed down the NCAA field and proved to be brutal for many of the players on our Big Board.

We started the week with 11 players on our Big Board still playing and ended with just four -- Trey Burke, Michael Carter-Williams, Glenn Robinson III and Gorgui Dieng -- going to the Final Four. In other words, the Final Four might be great, but it's not going to be a great NBA scouting event (though scouts are salivating over a Burke versus Carter-Williams matchup on Saturday).

Here's our latest take, after talking to NBA GMs and scouts, on our Top 30.

Also, be sure to check out our updated Top 100 and our updated Lottery Mock Draft.

Editor's note: We updated our Big Board on Wednesday by dropping Alex Poythress (who said he'd return to Kentucky for his sophomore year) and by adding Steven Adams (who reversed course on Tuesday and announced he'd be entering the draft).

1

Nerlens Noel

SCHOOL: Kentucky
CLASS: Fr.
HT/WT: 6-11, 215
POS: C

10.5 PPG
9.5 RPG
4.4 BPG

Noel remains atop our Board in part because of the promise he shows in the NBA and in part because no other player here has played well enough to dethrone him. Our own Kevin Pelton gave more strong evidence for Noel to be No. 1 this week when he released the preliminary results of his projected WARP (wins above replacement player) statistic for NBA prospects. Noel's projected WARP is 4.0 -- the highest of any player in college hoops. I'm hearing from other teams that their advanced statistical models also put Noel atop their boards. Combine that with his size and his athletic ability and it's probably going to take a red flag by the NBA doctors at the draft combine to push him out of this spot.

PREVIOUS RANKING: 1 | PLAYER CARD

2

Marcus Smart

SCHOOL: OK St.
CLASS: Fr.
HT/WT: 6-4, 225
POS: PG

15.4 PPG
4.2 APG
40 FG%

Smart told reporters after Oklahoma State's loss that he hadn't decided whether he was declaring for the NBA draft. Everyone says that after they are eliminated from the tournament and most top prospects don't actually mean it. Smart, however, is mulling his next move and it's possible (though I think unlikely) that he returns to the Cowboys for his sophomore season. Smart likes college life and feels like he has a lot to work on. If he does declare, he's the No. 1 point guard prospect on our board, and I still see scenarios (like if Orlando or New Orleans win the lottery) where he could be the No. 1 pick.

PREVIOUS RANKING: 3 | PLAYER CARD

3

Ben McLemore

SCHOOL: Kansas
CLASS: Fr.
HT/WT: 6-5, 195
POS: SG

15.8 PPG
5.3 RPG
2.0 APG

McLemore bounced back from a horrific 4-for-21 in his last three games to catch fire in Kansas' loss to Michigan on Friday. For an 18-minute stretch, he looked every bit the No. 1 pick in the draft, scoring 20 points and hitting four 3-pointers.

Unfortunately, McLemore picked up a fourth foul with 10 minutes left, went to the bench for an extended period of time, and when he did return, took just one shot the rest of the game. Whether McLemore's problem is confidence or whether he just feels the need to defer to the seniors on the team, his up-and-down play worries GMs a little bit. He still has a shot to go No. 1 if a team like the Charlotte Bobcats wins the lottery, but his play over the past few weeks might have stalled his quest to be the first player off the board on draft night.

PREVIOUS RANKING: 2 | PLAYER CARD