There are folks in the NBA who think the Los Angeles Clippers are cursed. And they're not wanting for evidence, whether it's Shaun Livingston tearing three ligaments and dislocating his left knee while all alone on a breakaway layup, or all-around good guy Elton Brand leaving L.A. for Philadelphia and less money just days after the Clippers had paid $65 million to team Brand with Baron Davis.
"If you make the playoffs four times in 30 years, you're messed up," a longtime league scout says. "It's like somebody put the whammy on that franchise."
And then there's this: Of the Clippers' 15 lottery picks since 1989 (the most in the league during that span), not one has become an All-Star. In addition to all the other worsts the Clippers boast on their résumé, they've also been the poorest drafting team in the NBA over the past 20 seasons, by a staggering margin. According to our D.R.A.F.T. Initiative study, the Clippers' picks have posted an EWA (estimated wins added) that is 52 below the expected value for all their picks. Their average draft pick's production is more than one full win below what it should be, based on draft slot. So isn't it fitting that they've ended up with the top pick in the 2009 draft?
"I think the Clippers have made every mistake in the book," a Western Conference GM said. "They've taken big guys just because they're big. They've taken foreign guys just because they played well in one or two tournaments. They've taken guys with questionable character. They haven't focused on character enough."
Big guys?
Michael Olowokandi was a 7-foot center who had played against midlevel competition at the University of the Pacific. They took him over smaller guys Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce.
Foreign guys?
In 2005, they drafted Yaroslav Korolev 12th. He was a rail-thin 18-year-old who lasted two years in the league.
Questionable character?
Ladies and gentlemen, we bring you Darius Miles, the third pick of the 2000 draft.
But the Clippers' mishandling of the draft doesn't stop at the selection process. In the past, even when they've drafted talented players, they've lacked the infrastructure to help them develop into great players for their franchise. Instead of having solid and professional veterans in place to mentor talented rookies, the rookies have sometimes become the show, which has led to overexposure and inevitable flameouts.
Remember how much hype Lamar Odom, the fourth pick in 1999, Quentin Richardson, the 18th pick of 2000, and Miles got? They enjoyed commercials, magazine covers and endorsement deals despite never leading the Clippers to the playoffs. And yet, Odom, often the anti-professional with the Clippers, developed into a great team leader after being traded to Miami and then to the Lakers, where he's just won an NBA title. He's one of the team's few high picks to have produced a positive net EWA, not that his contributions have helped the Clippers.
"They haven't put their young players in position to succeed because they don't have a solid player-development structure," the Western Conference GM said.
Davis, who was widely considered to have mailed it in last season, is now the team leader and the guy who's supposed to be teaching young talents Eric Gordon, Al Thornton and -- assuming they pick him No. 1 this year -- Blake Griffin how to be pros.
The Clippers' instability at coach has also been a factor. Between 1989 and 2003, they had 11 different head coaches. While Elgin Baylor was entrenched as the GM, he was constantly picking players for different coaching styles, systems and philosophies.
"You need that stability from the coach on up," an Eastern Conference GM said. "Mitch Kupchak with the Lakers knows what types of players work for Phil Jackson. R.C. Buford in San Antonio knows what works for Gregg Popovich, and Kevin O'Connor in Utah knows what works for Jerry Sloan. Whether it's size, temperament, whatever, those coaches and GMs know what each other wants in players.
"Organizations that always have different coaches and don't really have an identity just keep going in a circle. Teams with stable coaches are able to have a foundation and to draft based on who works in their system and who works well with their coach. You've got to have fertile ground; you've got to draft the right guy and you've got to have stability for these guys to develop and play. When a guy goes to Utah, he knows that Sloan's in charge and what to expect."
In keeping with that logic, the Clippers have at least drafted somewhat better since Mike Dunleavy took over as coach in 2003. With six years under his belt in Los Angeles, he's the longest-tenured coach in Clippers history.
Since his arrival, the Clippers have made only one truly disastrous choice (Korolev). You can't blame them for the freak injury to Shaun Livingston, a Penny Hardaway-clone they took with the fourth pick in 2004. In 2003, they grabbed Chris Kaman, whose net EWA hasn't quite lived up to being the sixth pick in the draft, but who is clearly a solid big man. Thornton, the 14th pick in 2007, has been productive, and last year's No. 7 pick, Gordon, was terrific as a rookie. Second-rounder DeAndre Jordan, a 7-footer the Clippers snagged with the 35th pick, also has big upside.
But even though Dunleavy's brought a bit of stability, many believe the Clippers' fortunes won't really improve until owner Donald Sterling sells the team.
"They just don't have a winning culture," one agent said. "They've accepted that they're the second show in town behind the Lakers, so they have a second-rate culture. Sterling is so flaky that everything in the organization is tenuous. There's no stability and it all emanates from him because he's such a quirky dude. He's almost like a character. You can't take him seriously, and everyone in the organization's always on pins and needles because of it. When you have a first-rate operation, you can have accountability, but when you're run poorly from the top, there's slippage everywhere else."
Especially -- in the Clippers' case -- in the draft.
Chris Broussard is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider.