If there is a guiding principle of the NBA draft, it's the notion of "upside." Teams envision the best-case scenario for every prospect; fans assume players will meet all expectations and comparisons.
Here at Insider, though, we're all about reality. And history has taught us that more often than not, draft picks don't exactly measure up to the hype, albeit not always on a Darko/Dirk scale. To determine what is realistic, then, we looked back at the past 20 drafts (beginning in 1989, when the NBA pared the draft to two rounds) and examined the value produced at each slot. The chart below shows the end result of a complicated process of number crunching.
Using John Hollinger's estimated wins added statistic, plus some nifty regression analysis, we were able to determine an expected value for every pick in the draft, independent of this year's specific teams or players. The next column shows the actual average EWA for each pick. We have included the best and worst players drafted at each slot, based on EWA -- think of this as a ceiling and a floor -- as well as the drafted player who comes closest to resembling the expected EWA for a given pick. That's the caliber of player you should expect your team to select.
From now through the draft, we'll expand on all of these concepts, and we'll also examine the best and worst breeding grounds of talent, team-based drafting tendencies and players' career arcs based on whether they entered the draft out of high school, college or the international ranks.
For now, familiarize yourself with the table below, as well as its team-based counterpart. And then recalibrate your expectations.