The UFC heads to Atlanta on Saturday for a UFC Fight Night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+; prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) headlined by a pair of top-10 welterweights in ESPN's divisional rankings. Former champion Kamaru Usman (20-4) will be back in action for the first time in a year and a half against Joaquin Buckley (21-6), who enters the weekend on a six-fight winning streak that includes four early finishes.
Another former champion, Rose Namajunas (14-7), will be in action in the co-main event against Miranda Maverick (17-5), who is in the midst of her own four-fight win streak.
The PFL World Tournament is also back this week (Thursday at 10 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+; prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN+) with semifinal bouts in the welterweight and featherweight divisions. Prospect Thad Jean (9-0) and former Bellator champion Jason Jackson (19-5) meet in the welterweight main event, while 2023 PFL featherweight champion Jesus Pinedo (24-6-1) takes on the man he beat for the title, Gabriel Braga (16-2), in the rubber match of their three-fight series.
Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC fighters Din Thomas and Anthony Smith to get their UFC main event predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the fight night for Atlanta and intriguing bets from the PFL semifinals.
Welterweight: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
Usman will have a tough time early with Buckley's speed and athleticism, but once they settle into the fight, I think the veteran savviness of Kamaru will take over. And this is not real technical analysis, X's and O's, but [consider] how long Kamaru spent on the side. How many fights did he not take? How many opportunities did he pass on before he chose this fight? There's a reason he likes this matchup. There's something he sees that the rest of us don't see. He's calculated with [taking] fights, and for some reason, this one was worth his time. I think that matters. -- Anthony Smith
Buckley's movement is going to be a little too much for Usman to keep up with, and Buckley is going to be touching [Usman] up while he moves. I don't think it's gonna be that exciting of a fight, with Buckley executing a smart game plan in which he'll narrowly win each round. -- Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of June 12. Visit ESPN BET for the most up-to-date UFC Fight Night odds and PFL 2025 semifinals odds.
Parker: Buckley to win (-280). A new guard is rising in the welterweight division, and the 31-year-old Buckley is looking to follow the path of Jack Della Maddalena and Sean Brady, who both beat former champions in their most recent fights. Buckley has been extremely impressive since making the move from middleweight to welterweight in 2023, and I don't see his six-fight winning streak stopping here. As long as this fight stays on the feet and Buckley doesn't allow Usman to hold him against the cage, Buckley should win this as the better striker. Can Usman turn this into a wrestling match and stay competitive? It is possible. But given he's 38 years old, he hasn't fought since October 2023 and is taking on a younger and dangerous fighter in Buckley, Usman will be on the losing side here.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Women's flyweight: Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
Namajunas to win (-255). Namajunas has seen the scorecards in each of her past six fights (three wins and three losses), and I don't think this time will be any different. Unlike her last fight against Erin Blanchfield, in which Blanchfield had the edge in grappling, Namajunas should have the advantage everywhere and anywhere the fight against Maverick goes. Against Blanchfield, Namajunas was up two rounds to none on the judges' scorecards then lost the final three rounds. She won't make the same mistake against another grapple-heavy wrestler. Instead, Namajunas will control the pace and turn up the striking volume en route to a decision victory.
Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
Under 2.5 rounds. Either Shahbazyan gets the knockout or Petroski gets the submission. I cannot see this fight going three rounds because both fighters finish or get finished almost every time out. For Petroski, he needs to get Shahbazyan to the canvas t early. If he can get dominant position on the ground in Round 1, he will have plenty of opportunities to get the submission. If Shahbazyan forces him to box, Petroski will get knocked into the shadow realm.
Men's bantamweight: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho
Wellmaker under 1.5 rounds. Wellmaker made a big impression on "Dana White's Contender Series" then topped that with a first-round knockout in his UFC debut that earned him a performance bonus and allowed him to quit his day job. On Saturday, he'll take on a game and durable Moutinho, but I don't think Moutinho will be able to avoid getting caught clean by Wellmaker for three rounds. Moutinho, who is returning to MMA after a three-year retirement, was knocked out by Guido Cannetti and Sean O'Malley in his two previous UFC fights. If Cannetti could finish him, Wellmaker can do it faster. Unless this turns into a jiu-jitsu match, which I don't see happening, look for Wellmaker to get this done under 1.5 rounds.
Parker's best bets for the PFL 2025 semifinals
Welterweight: Thad Jean vs. Jason Jackson
Jean to win (+135). In the most highly anticipated fight of the PFL World Tournament, former Bellator champion Jackson will take on homegrown PFL prospect Jean. This fight will come down to whether Jackson can turn this into a wrestling match. If he can successfully take and hold Jean down for 15 minutes, Jackson will win the fight. I don't see it happening. Jean isn't as well known, but he has the ability to defend takedowns and an underrated jiu-jitsu game to back it up. If this fight stays on the feet, the advantage goes to Jean.
Featherweight: Jesus Pinedo vs. Gabriel Braga
Pinedo to win (-275).In the co-main event, is a trilogy fight between Pinedo and Brada. Both fighters are fun to watch and always looking for the finish. Pinedo avenged his 2023 PFL regular-season loss to Braga in the featherweight championship that season, and now they will meet a third time with a spot in the 2025 finals and a chance at $500,000 on the line. Braga is certainly the more technical striker, but I can't go against the controlled chaos and KO power of Pinedo. Unless Braga can utilize his jiu-jitsu to get Pinedo to the canvas, look for Pinedo to bull rush in and turn this fight into a brawl.
Welterweight: Logan Storley vs. Masayuki Kikuiri
Storley to win inside the distance. Sitting at a -1000 favorite, Storley will be looking to make easy work of Kikuiri and move on to the finals. Storley should be able to dominate this fight without any issues, as Kikuiri struggled in his last fight against a lesser opponent. This is a big opportunity for Storley to not only win but get a finish and make a statement heading into the finals.
Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Tae Kyun Kim
Khaybulaev to win (-225). Kim looked exceptional in his last fight against Nathan Kelly, getting the submission win and putting the division on notice. However, Kelly is not Khaybulaev. The odds are a lot closer for this semifinal than expected because Khaybulaev is coming off a two-year layoff and his first 2025 tournament performance against Jeremy Kennedy was less than stellar. But I see him bouncing back here and controlling the fight with his dominant wrestling.