When the UFC announced in February that featherweight champion Ilia Topuria had decided to vacate his title to move up a weight class to lightweight, there were a lot of unanswered questions surrounding both divisions. Fast forward nearly two months, and many of those questions remain.
It will take some time for both divisions to reset following Topuria's bombshell decision. At lightweight, the million-dollar question is whether Topuria will get an immediate title shot or have to earn one by facing another lightweight contender. Topuria claimed at a news conference last month that the UFC promised him his next bout would be for a title, but the UFC has not yet announced Topuria's next fight nor the next title matchup for its lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev.
Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is in the running for a shot against Makhachev. As is former interim champion Justin Gaethje. Arman Tsarukyan, who withdrew the day before his January fight at UFC 311 with Makhachev because of back spasms, is still in play. On top of that, Makhachev reportedly has aspirations of moving up to welterweight, either in the immediate future or somewhere down the road.
As UFC CEO Dana White said of the situation at a recent news conference, "A lot of s--- going on right now ..."
Luckily, we are about to get answers at featherweight. Former champion Alexander Volkanovski faces Diego Lopes for the 145-pound championship at UFC 314 on Saturday night in Miami (ESPN+ PPV, 10 ET, with prelims on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+ at 8 ET), and that's just one of several featherweight bouts on the card. Topuria's departure threw both divisions into a bit of chaos, but at least at featherweight, we know the questions and when they'll be answered.
How much does Volkanovski have left?
Volkanovski went from one of the surest bets in MMA to a mountain of question marks within two years. He is only 36 years old and nearly beat Makhachev in a lightweight title fight in 2023, but he has also been knocked out in back-to-back appearances and has revealed he's been working on his mental health.
Ahead of this matchup against Lopes, 30, Volkanovski's back is against the wall. His fans might be worried about another loss and about his health. This is the most doubt Volkanovski has faced in his 14-year UFC career. He told ESPN he stopped drinking alcohol well before the start of this camp and has been ahead of schedule with his weight cut. His confidence certainly appears to be intact.
"I want to prove I can beat this new school [of fighters]," Volkanovski said. "I still got these guys, trust me. Lopes is young, hungry, on a tear at the moment. [I want] to go out and do that and [have fans] be like, 'Oh wow, Volk's still got it.'"
Sorting out this 145-pound division starts with Volkanovski. He was the king until he ran into Topuria. Now that Topuria is moving on, who's to say that the throne shouldn't still belong to Volkanovski? To get there, he has to overcome a tough historical trend: Fighters 35 and older are 0-17 in UFC title fights at 155 pounds and lighter.
How much does Patricio Pitbull have left?
The best fighter in the world at any weight class is often the UFC champion. The UFC has the top talent and the deepest weight classes. Occasionally, however, there is a debate -- and for years, a potential one has involved Pitbull.
Pitbull was a long-reigning featherweight champion in Bellator MMA, and he also won its lightweight title in 2019 by knocking out Michael Chandler, who will take on Paddy Pimblett in the co-main event of UFC 314. Any longtime MMA fan would have loved to see Volkanovski fight Pitbull during their respective reigns in the UFC and Bellator. That's why it was no surprise that Pitbull's first social media post upon securing his release from Bellator earlier this year was, "Hi, @alexvolkanovski."
Pitbull faces Yair Rodriguez on Saturday. If he wins impressively, there's a very good chance he catapults himself to the top of the rankings and a title shot.
He is 37, though, and was knocked out for the first time in 2023 by Chihiro Suzuki at Super Rizin 2. Like Volkanovski, Pitbull is at a unique point in his career where he has something to prove. But if he can prove it, he can jump the line. And that line isn't even super long. It basically comes down to one other contender ...
Will the UFC get behind Movsar Evloev?
That contender is Evloev, who is 19-0 overall and 9-0 in the UFC, including a unanimous decision over Lopes two years ago. In fact, each of the wrestling-heavy Evloev's wins in the UFC has come by decision.
Here's a good way to sum up Evloev's standing in the UFC: White referred to his win over Arnold Allen in January 2024 as "the least fun fight anybody's ever seen." Movsar has since stated he won't beg White for a title shot and will run his record to 100-0 if that's what it takes to win a championship. You get the picture.
Volkanovski and Lopes have both said they want to fight Evloev, and the UFC can't deny him forever. His path already has been long, but for it to culminate in a title opportunity, nothing short of perfection is required.
What kind of rise might Aaron Pico be in for?
Pico is headed to the UFC. It hasn't been officially announced, but the news has been coming and the biggest hurdles have been cleared.
Pico, 28, signed with Bellator back in 2014, three years before he even made his MMA debut. The young freestyle wrestling phenom was one of the most promising prospects in MMA history but lost three of his first seven Bellator fights. Since the rough start, he has won nine of 10 and was in line to fight for the Bellator title before the promotion ceased operations this year.
Eight years and 17 fights into his professional career, Pico's true ceiling remains a mystery. He has all of the talent in the world, but a move to the UFC will be a step up in competition. If he does prove to be championship-caliber, his stock could go through the roof. You want to talk about a shakeup in this division? Pico's move to the UFC could be the biggest wild card of the year.
Who else could change the landscape of this division in 2025?
Jean Silva knocks out Charles Jourdain with an incredible uppercut at UFC 303.
Jean Silva has been thrown an opportunity to face Bryce Mitchell at UFC 314 in an extremely quick turnaround from his first-round knockout of Melsik Baghdasaryan in February. Youssef Zalal, who is on his second run in the UFC after getting cut in 2021, is finding his stride, too. He just beat the always-game Calvin Kattar in February to get to 4-0 since he reentered the UFC a year ago.
Lastly, Lerone Murphy is undefeated and will be ranked among the top 10 following Saturday's main event win against Josh Emmett. There's not a lot of flash to Murphy, who is quietly on an eight-fight win streak, but there appears to be more than enough substance to create some issues for the top of the division.