Former two-time men's flyweight champion Brandon Moreno makes his first Octagon appearance of 2025, as he takes on Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night at Mexico City Arena on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Moreno, No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, lost the title to Alexandre Pantoja in July 2023. He then lost to Brandon Royval the following February but ended the skid in November, beating Amir Albazi by unanimous decision. Erceg, ESPN's No. 7-ranked flyweight, enters the fight on a two-fight losing streak that includes a loss to Pantoja in a title challenge last May at UFC 301.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach
How Moreno wins: He's looked more composed in his last few fights, less willing to brawl. He still gets it done with pressure and pace. He's good at wearing guys down. I'd like to see him mix in a few takedowns, which will also wear on Erceg's gas tank, especially down the stretch. Erceg has good striking -- he's dangerous if he can catch you -- so mixing in some wrestling and grappling pressure is always smart.
How Erceg wins: Avoid long striking exchanges with Moreno and concentrate on pinpoint counterpunches. Moreno can still get wild at times, so catching him early in the fight and hurting him will be Erceg's best way to win. That said, Erceg has to be first in the striking exchanges, take the fight to Moreno. If counterpunchers just wait for the perfect opening to engage, that's how they can give away rounds and give away a fight. Erceg needs to lead the dance and start the attack on Moreno. Focus on making Moreno miss and countering him with those big shots.
X factor: Altitude. Mexico City is known for producing tough-to-watch fights, because everyone gets so tired. Considering Moreno's cardio and pressure, that only makes it a bigger factor.
Prediction: Moreno to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Moreno to win (-245); over 2.5 rounds. Moreno had a flawless performance against Albazi, showing that the former champ is still capable of competing for a title. Moreno, who is from Mexico, will be fighting in his home country, and his incredible cardio and tremendous output could make it a long night for Erceg if the Aussie isn't acclimated to the elevation.
On the feet, Erceg has a power advantage, but coming off back-to-back losses, I don't see him getting the best of Moreno, especially in this environment. Moreno is currently a heavy favorite and rightfully so. However, to get better odds, add over 2.5 rounds. I expect this fight to reach Round 4.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Joe Pyfer celebrates with his team after a violent knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303.
Lightweight: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
Dober to win (-110). Expect pure fireworks when Dober and Torres meet in the center of the Octagon. Although Dober is riding a two-fight losing streak, I like him against the prospect in Torres, who is coming off the first TKO loss of his career. Dober has seen it all, so nothing that Torres throws at him should be a surprise. This will come down to who has the better chin and durability, and based on what we have seen so far, that's Dober.
Middleweight: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier
Over 1.5 rounds (-170). Gautier has an 83% finish rate, with five of his six wins coming by way of knockout. And he displayed every bit of that power on "Dana White's Contender Series." He will now make his UFC debut against possibly the most durable fighter on the UFC's roster. Medina has an unlimited gas tank, allowing him to make what are supposed to be lopsided fights into competitive bouts, and that's what I expect here. Gautier is currently a nearly 4-to-1 favorite, but I'm leaning toward the experience and durability of Medina. So let's take the over 1.5 rounds here. But we are going to be holding our breath for a bit, as Gautier throws every punch with bad intentions. Also, Gautier has not fought at elevation and may gas himself trying to finish Medina early in the fight.