Each week, ESPN.com writer Brett Okamoto provides his take on the hottest topics in the world of mixed martial arts.
This week, Okamoto squares off with UFC Hall of Famer Stephan Bonnar to debate all things UFC 202 ahead of Saturday's pay-per-view card from Las Vegas. Bonnar (15-9), 39, retired following his 2014 loss to Tito Ortiz under the Bellator MMA banner. He is the host of "The Final Round with Stephan Bonnar" podcast.
1. How much star power does Conor McGregor lose if he suffers a second consecutive loss to Nate Diaz at UFC 202?
Bonnar: I don't get it. I mean, he's such a big star and it's one thing to have your big star get the s--- kicked out of him once, but why do it again right away? It would be one thing if the fight was close but Conor is a 145-pound fighter. Diaz is a big guy. Conor got full extension on his punches, hit him with his best shots and Diaz laughed at him. I don't get it. Yeah he's gonna lose star power. Honestly, I don't see this fight playing out too much different than the first. Conor's got a big following in Ireland and people can say he was fighting out of his weight class, which is true if you look at what he's done at 145. I'd say he'll lose about 20 percent of his star power but it's recoverable. He'll lose it short term but not long term.
Okamoto: Keep in mind: McGregor's star power could diminish by half and he'd still have more than just about anyone on the UFC roster. So, take this with a grain of salt -- but yes, his star power would take a significant hit. Honestly, it shouldn't. Casual fans seem to hold MMA fighters to an impossibly high standard. Like Bonnar said, McGregor is fighting outside his weight class and taking risks. Whatever happens, he's still the featherweight champion of the world. He still knocked out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds! Losing to Diaz twice shouldn't kill all the momentum he built but the reality is that it would to a certain degree. Like Bonnar though, I do think any star power McGregor might lose, he'd have an opportunity to get it back.
2. Win or lose, McGregor's next fight should be a featherweight title unification bout against Aldo. Agree or disagree?
Bonnar: Absolutely. Conor should be back fighting at 145 right now. He shouldn't be fighting out of his weight class. I don't understand why he's doing it. Diaz is rangy, tall -- he's unlike anyone else Conor would be facing at 145. So, yeah, Conor needs to go back to 145.
Okamoto: I'm surprising myself a little here ... but I disagree. If he loses, yes, go back to 145 and defend your title. If he wins, I'd have interest in him fighting Eddie Alvarez for the 155-pound championship. That was where this whole thing started, before Rafael dos Anjos' broken foot turned everything upside-down. I don't mind seeing McGregor get that opportunity. He's undefeated at 145. And not only is he undefeated, he has been dominant at that weight. If he beats Diaz, he'd be coming off a quality win against a former lightweight title challenger. There are definitely worthy contenders already at lightweight, but not one that truly stands above the rest. Khabib Nurmagomedov is the closest thing, but he has been inactive. If McGregor wins, I don't mind him chasing a second title at all.
3. If McGregor wins and evens his rivalry with Diaz, how soon should the UFC promote a trilogy?
Bonnar: No thoughts on this because it's not gonna happen. I hope the betting odds come out and, you know, Nate is only a small favorite and not a 4-1. I think it's a pretty safe bet. It's not gonna happen, Conor winning this fight. If it somehow did, for MMA? Oh, it'd be awesome. The trilogy would have to be the following fight and it would draw record numbers. That's the best thing that could happen for this sport is Conor pull off the upset and have a trilogy fight.
Okamoto: You could argue they would owe it to Diaz to do it right away. As Diaz has mentioned numerous times leading up to this rematch, where were his rematches? He lost fights in the past and the UFC moved on, never giving him an opportunity to right some of those wrongs. On the other hand, I don't think you'd do it right away. In fact, I think it's better for everyone, Diaz included, if you don't do it right away. It will always have legs. Always. That's the good thing about a 1-1 rivalry, you can go back to it pretty much any time. So, if McGregor wins, I'd say move on, book McGregor to a 155-pound title fight. Book Diaz to another big-name fight. Let the "want" build up to see this again, maybe a year or even two down the line.
4. If Diaz wins, whom should he fight next?
Bonnar: I think he has got a lot of pull after this. Conor has really given Nate some huge paydays. Compared to the other guys Nate has fought in the division -- he has been in some solid fights -- but main eventing a card against a star like that really gives you a heck of a lot of power. If he wins, which I think he will, it needs to be a big fight. I'd say, why not give him a title shot at 155 pounds against Eddie Alvarez? Stylistically, I don't like that matchup for him, but star power-wise, he has got to main event a fight. His weight class is really 155. He does well at 170, but I'd say the next fight for him would be a title fight at 155.
Okamoto: Yep, Alvarez for the lightweight title. I guess that means I vote for the winner of this fight (whoever it is) to face Alvarez. Again, that goes back to my opinion that there are several solid contenders in this division but no one who truly, truly stands out. And I have a great deal of love for Nurmagomedov, but I don't have to see him in a title fight right now. Have him win one more against a highly ranked opponent and then I will feel that way. Alvarez wants to fight Diaz because he knows it's a big fight. The two have history. It's a sellable fight and Diaz would deserve it.
5. Anthony Johnson and Glover Teixeira will meet in the UFC 202 co-main event. Which one is a greater threat to Daniel Cormier's light heavyweight title?
Bonnar: Anthony's punching power is the best shot. That guy catches you, he's putting you out. We saw him land that overhand right on Cormier [at UFC 187 in May 2015, Cormier won via submission] and it surprised him. Cormier said, "Wow, this guy can hit. I better not mess around too much standing with him." The fight between Johnson and Glover is really interesting. Glover is really solid on the ground but if he can't out-wrestle you -- Anthony Johnson's hips are so strong, Glover is not gonna be able to take him down. I think Anthony, defensively, is a phenomenal wrestler and offensively, I think he's better than what we've seen. We rarely see him use it. If he's smart, he'll use his offensive wrestling to make it easier. I think he has the stronger hips and better wrestling than Glover.
Okamoto: I agree with Bonnar here, too. I would favor Cormier against either of them, but Johnson's punching power makes for a dicey title defense. That doesn't mean I wouldn't enjoy a Cormier-Teixeira fight, though. Teixeira is dangerous in multiple areas and even though he'd be at a complete disadvantage from a wrestling standpoint against Cormier, I don't think it would be to the extent where it would essentially ruin the bout -- as in, Cormier taking him down so easily it'd be a drama-free snoozefest. In other words, I believe Teixeira could at least give Cormier a challenge. But if one has a better shot at beating Cormier than the other, I think it's clearly Johnson.