Former two-time Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura makes his UFC debut under the bright lights as he challenges Alexandre Pantoja for the men's flyweight title in the main event at UFC 310 on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Pantoja, ranked No. 5 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has held the title since July 2023. Most recently, he beat Steve Erceg by unanimous decision at UFC 301 to retain the belt. Pantoja is putting his six-fight winning streak on the line; he has not lost a fight since July 2020.
Asakura, unranked by ESPN, spent the last eight years competing in Rizin, where he won five of his past six fights.
Andreas Hale spoke to MMA coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Din Thomas, ESPN MMA analyst
How Pantoja wins: Pantoja is a demon who isn't afraid of anyone and has a great chin. No matter how tired he looks at the end of fights, he always fights smartly. Some people criticize his conditioning, but I don't. He has enough to win fights. If he can get Asakura to the ground or somehow get his back during what I anticipate will be some wild exchanges, he can get the job done.
How Asakura wins: Asakura is tall and long with great knees up the middle, a great left kick and a lot of power for his size. He has to suck Pantoja into a couple of wild exchanges, because Pantoja will have a difficult time taking him down. Asakura has underrated wrestling defense, and that could lead to a few brawls. If he can do it at the right time and a length where he can use his reach, he can hit Pantoja just before he closes the distance. And if he hits him in that sweet spot, he can find a lot of success there. If he can also time some of Pantoja's attempts for takedowns, he may be able to catch him with some knees.
X factor: All of the negatives that Asakura has to face. He last fought at this weight in 2017, so he has to cut the weight. He's also fighting inside a cage rather than a ring, as he did in Rizin, so he's not used to having a fence behind him. He's used to ropes behind him in a ring. It's also a somewhat circular environment, not a square where you can corral a person into the corner. And then there's the crowd -- he's not used to an American crowd, he's used to a quiet Japanese crowd. So, all these things may be overwhelming and difficult for him to overcome. Pantoja's underrated power is another X factor, and if there's an exchange, he may be able to do some damage to Asakura.
Prediction: Pantoja by submission.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Pantoja to win by submission or decision. Asakura will get an opportunity to do something never done before: win a UFC title in his debut. To do that, he will have to knock out Pantoja early. Otherwise, he will be in for a miserable time being out-grappled. Pantoja has won his last six fights, including two successful title defenses, and I think we see another successful one here. One key detail to point out is Asakura has never been submitted in a 25-fight career, so if Pantoja can't sub him out, look for the champ to utilize his grappling to neutralize and control Asakura en route to a decision win.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
Over 2.5 rounds. When two former teammates have no issue fighting each other, especially on short notice, it screams to bet over 2.5 rounds. In two of his last three fights, Rakhmonov has exceeded the 2.5-round mark, and I expect this to be the same against a striker who stays outside as much as Machado Garry does. For Machado Garry, he knows where Rakhmonov will have his number, and that's if he gets taken down. I think Rakhmonov can get the submission as the fight continues, as we saw Michael "Venom" Page take Machado Garry down. Because of that, I also like taking a flier on Rakhmonov to win by sub. But be aware that in his last three fights, Machado Garry has gone to a decision.
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
Gorimbo to win (-155), over 2.5 rounds (-285). Originally slated to fight Nick Diaz, Luque now takes on Gorimbo in a different stylistic fight. The potential fight against Diaz was more favorable to Luque, as Diaz is well past his prime and looked like a shell of himself in his last fight. Luque would have been able to do whatever he wanted in that fight, but in this one, he's the underdog to Gorimbo. This fight will be Gorimbo's toughest challenge skill-wise. I expect this to look like his fight against Niko Price, where he does enough to avoid trouble and win a decision. I also like the over 2.5 rounds here.
Catchweight (195 pounds): Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Weidman to win (-115). I picked Weidman to win this fight when it was scheduled for UFC 309, and I'll stick with the bet here again. Considering that Anders bowed out of the fight hours before because of a medical issue, he's now ready to fight weeks later? It doesn't seem right to me. Besides Anders' punching power, I don't see where he beats Weidman. Weidman is the better striker and has the wrestling to fall back on if needed. We have also seen Anders slow down as the fight goes on, and stamina is usually not a problem for the former champ.