UFC bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley puts his belt on the line against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event at UFC 306 on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 7:30 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+).
O'Malley, No. 4 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, enters the fight following his first title defense against Marlon Vera at UFC 299. O'Malley beat Vera by unanimous decision. Dvalishvili, No. 2 in ESPN's bantamweight rankings, is riding a 10-fight winning streak. Dvalishvili has not lost a fight since April 2018.
In the co-main event, women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso clashes with former champion Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy bout for Grasso's title. Grasso, No. 2 in ESPN's women's MMA P4P rankings, beat Shevchenko by fourth-round submission to claim the title at UFC 285 in March 2023. In the rematch, Grasso retained the title via split draw in September 2023.
Also on Saturday, Bellator hosts its second of back-to-back events as the promotion takes the Bellator Champions Series to London. In the main event, women's featherweight contender Leah McCourt takes on the undefeated Sara Collins.
Andreas Hale spoke to UFC strawweight Angela Hill to get her perspective on the UFC 306 main and co-main events. ESPN betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the UFC main event and other intriguing bets they like from both promotions on Saturday.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's bantamweight title fight: Sean O'Malley (c) vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
How O'Malley wins: O'Malley wins with patience and distance control. He has to find the distance where Dvalishvili tends to attack and beat him to the punch.
How Dvalishvili wins: Pressure. Dvalishvili has to charge at O'Malley with his combos and be relentless with his takedowns. Feint often to draw O'Malley in before committing to his grappling or strikes. Dvalishvili has to be really disciplined. He can't be predictable or get into a rhythm that O'Malley can catch on to, keep O'Malley guessing.
X factor: Knockout power. O'Malley can finish the fight at any time, and that's not what Dvalishvili has shown. Even though he can wear O'Malley down, Dvalishvili may not wear him down enough to take away his knockout power.
Prediction: Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Kuhn: Dvalishvili to win (+110). This is an extreme striker vs. grappler matchup. We'll either see O'Malley score another devastating knockout or spending a lot of time with his back on the mat.
As long as the fight is at range, O'Malley's best-in-class accuracy could test Dvalishvili's chin. However, O'Malley's knockdown rate is around the average, which is surprising given his impressive highlight reel. Dvalishvili typically uses an elevated pace to close distance, so expect the chase to begin early. Those sequences will be critical in determining who dictates each round.
O'Malley's takedown defense is just average. And while Dvalishvili's takedown success rate is also average, he attempts takedowns at a record-breaking rate. He'll string together multiple attempts, leveraging clinch control for the majority of his attempts.
Confounding this strategic battle is an extreme size difference. Dvalishvili will be substantially smaller, which could help him get under O'Malley's takedown defense, or lead him straight into a knee on the way in. I'll take the plus money value on Dvalishvili, but I'll have to sweat the pick every round.
Parker: O'Malley to win (-130). For Dvalishvili, we know what to expect. He will attempt plenty of takedowns while putting on a menacing pace. However, he will need a perfect performance for the full 25 minutes to get his hand raised. Dvalishvili has been rocked in Round 1 in nearly every fight and then has to mount a comeback. I believe O'Malley is the opponent who will present Dvalishvili with an early storm that he cannot outlast. O'Malley has a high fight IQ and an underrated jiu-jitsu game to backup his elite striking. I'm taking the champ here to get it done. His length will be a problem for Dvalishvili and give him the space he needs to strike and eventually land the knockout shot.
Women's flyweight title fight: Alexa Grasso (c) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Angela Hill, UFC strawweight
How Grasso wins: Be aggressive with her punches. She has to use her jab a lot. Anything straight and forward is going to keep Shevchenko from getting into her rhythm. Grasso also has to be fluid with her grappling and not freeze up. She seemed stuck at times in the last fight and it took her longer than expected to get free from the positions where she was controlled by Shevchenko. So Grasso has to react faster in the clinch positions and the takedown scrambles to keep the fight standing.
How Shevchenko wins: Shevchenko needs to bounce around less and throw more strikes. Mix up the punches, kicks and takedowns like she is known for. She has to be relentless with that until she gets a good position on the ground to control Grasso for the round. And then do it all over again.
X factor: Confidence. Grasso has the only true win between them. The second fight was a toss up. Shevchenko believes like she has a moral victory but Grasso is the one who submitted her. Grasso has legitimate confidence while Shevchenko is using fake confidence. Shevchenko's talking herself up, but does she actually believe it? Grasso seems to be enjoying this more while Shevchenko appears to be living in a nightmare.
Prediction: Grasso to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Grasso to win (-140). It's a third consecutive matchup for these two, but this is the first time Grasso could close as the betting favorite. She's performed well as an underdog twice before, and now the data sees value in her as a mild favorite.
When we line them up on performance metrics, Shevchenko demonstrates more technical range striking, albeit at a much slower pace. She's also a competent grappler, with the exception that Grasso attempts submissions at double the rate.
Shevchenko's advancing age drags my lean further toward Grasso. Shevchenko was just shy of her 35th birthday in their first matchup. Now at 36 years old, Shevchenko will inevitably lose a step, while Grasso has arguably reached her peak performance range. The same math that liked Grasso in their last fight likes her again, despite a little juice.
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-200). In the first fight, Shevchenko was up on the cards until she threw that spinning back kick that resulted in Grasso taking her back and locking in a choke for the win. In the second fight, Shevchenko was up on the scorecards again until she got caught and Grasso was given a 10-8 round resulting in a split draw. I can't imagine Shevchenko making another mistake of that nature, she is too smart and efficient. We will see a more measured approach from Shevchenko as well. She knows Grasso has power, so look for the early takedown attempt from her. I think this fight will play out on the ground more often than not, which will cause that clock to keep ticking in our favor. I am taking the over in this one.
Best bets across UFC 306 and Bellator Champions Series
UFC featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Kuhn: Ortega to win (+150). After this fight was forced to be rescheduled in June, Ortega enters the matchup with the same performance data, but Lopes' stats are arguably less impressive following a short-notice decision win over Dan Ige at UFC 303.
Given the closely contested decision win for Lopes over an opponent with minimal notice of the fight, I'm surprised the odds for Lopes and Ortega have not tightened from where they were last time.
The same factors are still at play. Lopes is younger and larger with a higher knockdown rate, and he has impressive accuracy at range. But Lopes also has a liability in his striking defense, which is among the worst of ranked fighters. Although Ortega's striking defense is only marginally better, he is no slouch on the feet.
The real chess match will be seen on the mat, where both men use aggressive submissions effectively. Both have won more fights by submission than any other method. Ortega is more likely to initiate contact, and has slightly better ground control. But the wild card is their equal willingness to fight off the back which could result in lengthy stalemates. My plus money value play is Ortega due to far greater strength of schedule, and potential path to victory via wrestling.
Parker: Lopes to win (-180). Lopes will face his toughest opponent to date in Ortega, but he matches up extremely well with him. Where Ortega is good, I believe Lopes is better. Ortega is as tough as they come and has elite jiu-jitsu that has put away most of his opponents. But Lopes is an international jiu-jitsu champion. On the feet, Ortega is the cleaner striker, but the power and speed belong to Lopes and that's where the difference will be. Ortega has been rocked quite a bit in his last few fights and if he gets caught by Lopes, I am not overly confident he will be able to turn it around.
UFC men's bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Kuhn: Rosas to win inside the distance. The steepest odds on the card will be for the UFC's youngest fighter. Despite fighting shy of his 20th birthday next month, Rosas already has four UFC appearances to his credit, including three impressive wins.
His stats reveal that he is a super aggressive grappler who wastes no time attempting takedowns. His opponent, Aoriqileng, might prefer to keep the fight standing, considering his mediocre takedown defense, and unfavorable ground control rating. But Rosas is young and resilient, with flashes of power on his feet. He could end this with strikes, or by submission, making him a safe favorite to back.
Parker: Rosas to win by submission. Rojas is currently a heavy favorite, but I believe the odds are too high, given his youth and limited experience. However, taking Rojas to win by sub here seems like the way to go. His opponent is primarily a striker with three submission losses on his record. As long as Rojas doesn't get tagged early, look for him to get that takedown shortly after the bell sounds and get this fight to the mat.
Bellator women's featherweight: Leah McCourt vs. Sara Collins
McCourt to win. Collins puts her unblemished record on the line in her toughest opponent to date against McCourt. Collins has a judo background and has used that skill set well in all of her fights. I think this step up in competition is a bit too much and too soon for her. Even if she gets on top of McCourt on the mat, McCourt has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to defend herself while fishing for her submissions. On the feet, McCourt will have the striking advantage. McCourt has also fought the likes of Sara McMann and Cat Zingano, both of them are more threatening than Collins. I'm going with McCourt to get it done.
Bellator lightweight: Tim Wilde vs. Marc Diakiese
Diakiese to win. Diakiese is making his Bellator debut after a long run in the UFC, and he's getting a good stylistic matchup against Wilde. Wilde is a good striker but he got knocked out by Manoel Sousa in March. Diakiese can match him in the striking department, but his advantage will be in the wrestling and ground game. Diakiese has showed tremendous improvements in that area and he will have full control once he implements that in this fight. Barring a knockout shot from Wilde, Diakiese should get the win in his debut.