Rising UFC middleweight contender Caio Borralho looks to keep ascending in the rankings when he takes on Jared Cannonier in the main event at UFC Fight Night in the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas (10 ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 on ESPN+).
Borralho, unranked by ESPN, is undefeated inside the Octagon and is coming off a second-round knockout win over Paul Craig in his last bout. Cannonier, No. 7 in ESPN's division rankings, enters the fight following a fourth-round knockout loss to Nassourdine Imavov in June.
Andreas Hale spoke to UFC analyst and former UFC fighter Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insight and analysis on the UFC main event and other intriguing bets he likes on this weekend's fight card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Middleweight: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Alan Jouban, UFC analyst and former UFC fighter
How Cannonier wins: Cannonier generally likes to fight in the open, but he also enjoys pressuring his opponents into the cage and using his physicality to slow them down. Against Borralho, he'll have to cut off the Octagon and push him against the fence to win some rounds. When the fight is in the center of the cage, Cannonier will need to use his jab and try to chop the legs down with kicks. He couldn't do that consistently against Imavov and that's when everything went haywire. Cannonier has to stick to the game plan and if he gets Borralho against the fence, keep him there.
How Borralho wins: Use his lateral movement and avoid the black line near the fence. Borralho has a darting in-and-out style that surprises guys, he can cover distance well. His speed makes opponents cautious; you'll see when Borralho lunges in and lands a straight left, Cannonier's demeanor will change once he sees how fast Borralho is.
When Cannonier throws his jab, Borralho will counter behind it with a check hook and a left hand. The opening will be there. Stylistically Borralho is a point fighter, but he gets finishes. Cannonier might be too tough to finish but this is his path to victory.
X factor: Borralho's fight IQ. He studies fights and does a lot of analyst work. His team, Fighting Nerds, is always prepared. He knows Cannonier will try to take his legs out and be explosive. We'll see a very agile Borralho slipping the leg kicks, circling, staying off the fence and point fighting.
Prediction: Borralho to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Borralho to win (-245). Borralho is a well-rounded fighter with a high IQ, and if he can take Cannonier down, he will have a huge advantage on the ground. Borralho is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, with four submissions in his career, while Cannonier has not proven to be a threat when fighting off his back. Outside of Cannonier's power, Borralho has the leg up in every aspect of this fight. Cannonier is also age 40 and coming off a knockout loss.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight 'TUF' finale: Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder
Valentin to win (-175). Currently, Valentin is a near 2-1 favorite over Loder, which is due to having nearly twice the experience and a 90% finish rate. Both fighters have knockout power, but Valentin's grappling is the difference. I think Valentin gets it done here. As long as he can avoid Loder's power on the feet, Valentin has the tools to dictate the fight and get the win.
Featherweight 'TUF' finale: Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos
Ofli to win (+165). The TUF featherweight finale is a striker vs. grappler matchup. After an impressive showing during the season, it's shocking to see Ofli entering as an underdog against Santos. I'm going to go with the underdog here. Ofli has more ways to win, while Santos will look to point fight and strike from a distance. Look for Ofli to close the distance and get this fight to the ground where he will have the advantage.
Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Over 1.5 rounds (-120). Shahbazyan claims he is a force to be reckoned with after getting a first-round knockout win in his last fight. However, he could be in for a long night on the mat if he doesn't get a quick knockout. Although Meerschaert's UFC career has been inconsistent, he is still a tough matchup if opponents can't get him out early.
Each of Meerschaert's last six fights has gone over the 1.5 round marker and five of Shahbazyan's past six have gone over 1.5 rounds as well. Expect Meerschaert to survive Round 1 and utilize his ground skills in the second and third rounds to try to pull off the upset. If you like long shot plays, take Meerschaert to win by submission in Round 3, otherwise take over 1.5 rounds.