Heavyweight contenders Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura fight in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday at the UFC Apex (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Tuivasa (15-6), ranked No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has been finished in each of his past three fights (two knockouts, one submission). Tybura (24-8), unranked by ESPN, also enters the fight after a loss. Tybura lost to current interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall by first-round knockout in July 2023.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Factory X MMA coach Marc Montoya to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Marc Montoya, Factory X MMA coach
How Tuivasa wins: So many people love to watch Tuivasa because he's always down to fight. The good and the bad of the heavyweight division is that it only takes one shot from any of these guys and it's over.
Tuivasa seems to get frustrated and lose focus when he can't land the big shot. Then, next thing you know, his opponent catches him. When Tuivasa gets overzealous and starts dhucking that right hand, he doesn't rebalance -- putting himself in bad defensive positions. His fundamentals have been an issue, so I would encourage him to be more fundamental.
How Tybura wins: Tybura is more technically sound and attacks with more weapons. He's not only relying on a big rear hand and he maintains his balance better. That has led to a lot of his success in the division, just being on balance, which lets him be more defensively sound. But Tybura's efficiency is much better than Tuivasa's, so if Tuivasa is chucking that right hand and can't find it early, Tybura is going to defend well and will likely find a way to crack him in later rounds.
X factor: Tuivasa's willingness to scrap, and whether he'll ever adjust that to be more defensively sound. If Tuivasa would shore up the defensive flaws that are caused by his hard offense approach, you'd see an exceptional fighter. But, if he's not working on those flaws, then his offense puts him in a position to get caught.
Prediction: Tybura wins. I just think he's in better positions constantly and will be able to sustain that heavy assault from Tuivasa.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Pass; slight lean toward Tuivasa to win (-120). Effectively, we have a striker versus grappler matchup, and wherever the fight spends the most time will determine the winner.
Tuivasa is a dangerous striker. His heavy hands make knockouts look effortless. But when he doesn't get the knockout, his chances for success plummet. In 14 career wins, all but one came by way of strikes in under three rounds. So, the question is whether Tybura can survive long enough, or simply implement a ground attack early enough to shift the momentum.
Tybura spends 21% of all fight time on the ground controlling opponents, a position where Tuivasa is effectively helpless, and his below-average takedown defense doesn't help him. But Tybura must succeed early, and that's no guarantee when Tuivasa is fresh and unloading strikes on early advances. Due to opposing dynamics, this is nearly a coin flip. A bet on Tybura is also a bet on the fight going over 1.5 rounds, while Tuivasa will only win by TKO. I would either only bet prop plays here or pass.
Parker: Tybura to win (+100). Tuivasa carries tremendous power, and when he lands, he can shut anyone's lights out. However, he tends to fall short if he doesn't land that knockout punch. I believe that's what will happen here.
Aside from his loss to Aspinall, Tybura was on a two-win streak. Tybura will be the more technical striker, but the difference here will be his wrestling and ground game. We have seen him use it successfully before. Look for Tybura to come out early using calf kicks to slow down Tuivasa and then eventually take him to the ground, where Tybura should have no issue controlling the fight.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa
Parker: Battle to win (-180). Loosa carries a ton of power, but so far in the UFC, all of his fights have gone to a decision. Even if he rocks Battle early, we have seen Battle come back to get the win due to his durability. If Loosa rocks Battle early and can't get the finish, then he is going to be in for a tough fight. Battle will have the reach and the striking advantage from a technical standpoint, and if he chooses to take Loosa down, Battle is a nightmare on the ground.
Light heavyweight: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Kuhn: Nzechukwu to win (-600); fight does not go the distance. This one looks weird on paper. Both guys can pull off highlight reel finishes, yet they're both vulnerable. Especially Saint Preux, who is 40 years old. As long as both men don't gas out, there's plenty of finishing potential here.
Nzechukwu will have clear advantages in terms of speed and aggression. He's one of the few fighters bigger and rangier than Saint Preux. Nzechukwu has also shown the ability to survive early damage and get a finish a fight minutes later. Saint Preux has the higher knockout rate per strike, but he's arguably more vulnerable to damage at this stage of his career than Nzechukwu. There may be slow moments, but once the action starts, it could end quickly.
Parker: Nzechukwu to win by KO/TKO; Under 1.5 rounds (-155). I had to do a double-take when I saw this matchup. OSP has looked like a shell of himself recently. He could be one more knockout loss away from retirement. Nzechukwu is heavily favored, and the odds could be even higher. Look for him to take out OSP early with his striking.
Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena
Kuhn: Meerschaert to win (-250). This fight boils down to Meerschaert's submission game against Barberana's durability and aggressive striking. However, unlike the main event, we see more ingredients for the grappler to succeed early.
Meerschaert is eager to get fights to the ground and benefits from being the much larger fighter. Barberena's sloppy but aggressive style is effective against brawlers, but that's not Meerschaert's style. Expect to see the distance close early, with Meerschaert scrambling to gain a superior position to set up submissions. I'll lay the juice for Meerschaert and also add a prop by submission.
Parker: Meerschaert to win by submission; Under 2.5 rounds (-155). Barberena has lost by submission in two of his last three fights, and he's taking on another submission ace in Meerschaert. Don't expect the result in this matchup to be much different. As durable as Barberena has been, at some point, that goes away. He also is fighting up at 185 pounds, where he will be undersized against Meerschaert.
We have often seen Meerschaert stay on the feet longer than he should, and either grab the submission late in the fight or lose a close decision. In this fight, the ground game is a clear path to victory for him. Look for Meerschaert to work his jab early, close the distance and then take Barberena down. This fight being at the UFC Apex is a huge advantage to grapplers looking to cut off the cage, and that's exactly what Meerschaert is going to do.